West Ham United v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.26 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.79 – +0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
29.2%
Draw
31.9%
Sunderland win
39.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.44–1.24 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 2.21 xGSunderland 0.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
 West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 14' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omar Alderete |
| 16' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 16' |
West Ham United |
Pablo | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 27' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 30' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Castellanos |
| 30' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.36 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 42' |
West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 42' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 57' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar Alderete |
| 59' |
West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 65' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nordi Mukiele |
| 81' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Wilson |
| 82' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 91' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| Crysencio Summerville ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.09 | 0.63 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.54 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Pablo AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Oliver Scarles DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Freddie Potts Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Kilman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.64 |
| Enzo Le Fée MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 86 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Eliezer Mayenda FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Trai Hume MR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Romaine Mundle ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reinildo DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Habib Diarra Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Chemsdine Talbi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Dennis Cirkin Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Luke O'Nien Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |