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West Ham United v Wrexham — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
West Ham United win
53.9%
model 53.0%
Draw
23.0%
model 23.2%
Wrexham win
23.0%
model 23.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (425 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.0%
  2. 2-1 9.4%
  3. 2-0 6.8%
  4. 3-1 6.6%
  5. 2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.567.5% Under 2.532.5%
BTTS yes66.7% BTTS no33.3%
West Ham United 1+87.8% West Ham United 2+62.1%
Wrexham 1+74.7% Wrexham 2+40.0%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
48/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 32%
55.6% fair odds 1.80
strong signal · 687 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Wrexham (0:3)
Handicap 0:3 · usually 92%
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 274 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • West Ham United carry the stronger rating, 1536 Elo against 1505.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

West Ham United have an estimated 53.9% win probability, against 23.0% for Wrexham and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.10 for West Ham United and 1.38 for Wrexham.

Why West Ham United

West Ham United carry the stronger rating, 1536 Elo against 1505.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Wrexham can win

Nothing in the data singles out Wrexham.

Key players

West Ham United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Valentín Castellanos (0.41), Jarrod Bowen (0.40), Crysencio Summerville (0.27).

Availability

No lineup on record for Wrexham, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

West Ham United: 57% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces. Wrexham: 53% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

West Ham United are the model's most likely outcome at 53.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDLWDWLLLW last 10 scored 12 from 13.5 xG conceded 11 from 15.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.10–1.38 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.20–1.65 1-1 9% 74% 73%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to win 53.0% 52.1% 43.4% 1.20× 1.92
Wrexham to win 23.8% 22.2% 29.1% 0.77× 4.50
Draw 23.2% 22.2% 27.6% 0.81× 4.50
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United & both teams score 32.0% 33.0% 20.3% 1.63× 3.03
West Ham United & not both score 21.1% 22.7% 23.2% 0.97× 4.41
Draw & both teams score 19.0% 17.8% 20.4% 0.87× 5.61
Wrexham & both teams score 15.7% 17.8% 13.9% 1.28× 5.62
Wrexham & not both score 8.0% 7.3% 15.2% 0.48× 13.69
Draw & not both score 4.2% 3.7% 7.3% 0.50× 27.38
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United & over 1.5 47.7% 46.8% 32.5% 1.44× 2.14
West Ham United & over 2.5 40.8% 43.7% 26.4% 1.65× 2.29
West Ham United & over 3.5 26.7% 25.5% 11.1% 2.30× 3.92
West Ham United & under 3.5 26.4% 25.5% 32.4% 0.79× 3.92
Wrexham & over 1.5 20.6% 21.5% 21.5% 1.00× 4.66
Draw & over 1.5 19.0% 17.6% 20.4% 0.86× 5.68
Wrexham & over 2.5 17.7% 17.6% 16.2% 1.08× 5.68
Draw & under 2.5 14.2% 12.7% 21.7% 0.59× 7.87
Draw & under 3.5 14.2% 12.7% 21.7% 0.59× 7.87
Wrexham & under 3.5 13.5% 12.7% 22.3% 0.57× 7.87
West Ham United & under 2.5 12.2% 12.7% 17.1% 0.74× 7.88
Wrexham & over 3.5 10.2% 12.7% 6.8% 1.86× 7.88
Draw & over 2.5 9.0% 7.5% 6.0% 1.25× 13.33
Draw & over 3.5 9.0% 7.5% 6.0% 1.25× 13.33
Wrexham & under 2.5 6.1% 7.5% 12.9% 0.58× 13.35
West Ham United & under 1.5 5.4% 7.5% 11.0% 0.68× 13.35
Draw & under 1.5 4.2% 4.5% 7.3% 0.62× 22.31
Wrexham & under 1.5 3.1% 4.5% 7.7% 0.58× 22.36
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United (1UP) 69.9% 72.4% 1.38
Wrexham (1UP) 45.6% 44.4% 2.25
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United (2UP) 53.0% 54.0% 1.85
Wrexham (2UP) 23.8% 21.0% 4.76
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to win 2nd half 44.3% 39.5% 2.53
2nd half drawn 30.7% 33.7% 2.97
Wrexham to win 2nd half 25.0% 27.4% 3.65
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.0% 78.2% 1.28
Wrexham over 0.5 in 2nd half 56.2% 56.3% 1.78
Wrexham under 0.5 in 2nd half 43.8% 43.7% 2.29
Wrexham over 1.5 in 2nd half 20.0% 21.8% 4.58
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.8% 70.0% 1.43
West Ham United under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.4% 69.8% 1.43
West Ham United over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.6% 30.2% 3.31
West Ham United under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.2% 30.0% 3.34
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (+2.5) 83.8% 82.6% 92.0% 0.90× 1.21
West Ham United (+0.5) 76.2% 78.7% 70.9% 1.11× 1.27
Wrexham (+1.5) 67.5% 69.1% 80.7% 0.86× 1.45
West Ham United (-0.5) 53.0% 51.9% 43.4% 1.19× 1.93
Wrexham (+0.5) 47.0% 48.1% 56.6% 0.85× 2.08
West Ham United (-1.5) 32.5% 30.9% 19.3% 1.60× 3.24
Wrexham (-0.5) 23.8% 21.3% 29.1% 0.73× 4.70
West Ham United (-2.5) 16.2% 17.4% 8.0% 2.17× 5.73
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede 87.8% 89.7% 77.6% 1.16× 1.11
Wrexham clean sheet 12.2% 10.3% 22.4% 0.46× 9.74
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede in 1st half 59.5% 60.5% 1.65
Wrexham clean sheet in 1st half 40.5% 39.5% 2.53
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede in 2nd half 69.8% 67.5% 1.48
Wrexham clean sheet in 2nd half 30.2% 32.5% 3.08
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 6.5 corners 85.7% 85.2% 1.17
Wrexham under 5.5 corners 77.6% 76.0% 1.32
Wrexham under 4.5 corners 66.2% 67.6% 1.48
Wrexham over 2.5 corners 65.2% 67.5% 1.48
Wrexham under 3.5 corners 51.6% 53.1% 1.89
Wrexham over 3.5 corners 48.4% 46.9% 2.13
Wrexham under 2.5 corners 34.8% 32.5% 3.08
Wrexham over 4.5 corners 33.8% 32.4% 3.08
Wrexham over 5.5 corners 22.4% 24.0% 4.16
Wrexham over 6.5 corners 14.3% 14.8% 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 3.5 goals 94.9% 92.8% 97.8% 0.95× 1.08
Wrexham under 2.5 goals 83.9% 81.8% 90.5% 0.90× 1.22
Wrexham over 0.5 goals 74.7% 72.1% 69.6% 1.04× 1.39
Wrexham under 1.5 goals 60.0% 63.8% 69.9% 0.91× 1.57
Wrexham over 1.5 goals 40.0% 36.2% 30.1% 1.20× 2.76
Wrexham under 0.5 goals 25.3% 27.9% 30.4% 0.92× 3.59
Wrexham over 2.5 goals 16.1% 18.2% 9.5% 1.92× 5.50
Wrexham over 3.5 goals 5.1% 7.2% 2.2% 3.23× 13.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 1.5 in 1st half 89.4% 87.6% 1.14
Wrexham under 0.5 in 1st half 57.7% 59.4% 1.68
Wrexham over 0.5 in 1st half 42.3% 40.6% 2.46
Wrexham over 1.5 in 1st half 10.6% 12.4% 8.05
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham scores more in 2nd half 39.2% 38.9% 2.57
Wrexham scores equally in both 38.1% 38.9% 2.57
Wrexham scores more in 1st half 22.7% 21.6% 4.64
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United (away no bet) 69.6% 72.4% 61.1% 1.18× 1.38
Draw (away no bet) 30.4% 27.6% 38.9% 0.71× 3.62
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham even goals 53.2% 52.2% 52.4% 1.00× 1.92
Wrexham odd goals 46.8% 47.8% 47.6% 1.00× 2.09
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 74.4% 74.5% 1.34
Both halves over 1.5 goals 25.6% 25.5% 3.92
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 77.7% 73.2% 1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals 22.3% 26.8% 3.74
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 68.9% 65.2% 1.53
West Ham United to score 2+ in a row 51.8% 52.9% 1.89
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.2% 33.8% 2.96
Wrexham to score 2+ in a row 28.0% 25.2% 3.96
West Ham United to score 3+ in a row 23.1% 21.8% 4.59
Wrexham to score 3+ in a row 7.8% 7.3% 13.62
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United corners (+3.5) 88.8% 84.5% 1.18
West Ham United corners (+2.5) 83.1% 79.8% 1.25
West Ham United corners (+1.5) 75.4% 74.8% 1.34
Wrexham corners (+3.5) 74.3% 70.7% 1.41
Wrexham corners (+2.5) 65.5% 65.8% 1.52
Wrexham corners (+1.5) 55.3% 57.1% 1.75
West Ham United corners (-1.5) 44.7% 42.9% 2.33
West Ham United corners (-2.5) 34.5% 34.2% 2.93
West Ham United corners (-3.5) 25.7% 29.3% 3.42
Wrexham corners (-1.5) 24.6% 25.2% 3.97
Wrexham corners (-2.5) 16.9% 20.2% 4.95
Wrexham corners (-3.5) 11.2% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 52.1% 45.4% 2.20
9-11 corners 25.3% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 22.6% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 83.2% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 77.4% 76.6% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 70.2% 72.6% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 61.7% 63.3% 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 58.2% 57.9% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 52.1% 53.2% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 47.9% 46.8% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 41.8% 42.1% 2.38
Over 9.5 corners 38.3% 36.7% 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 29.8% 27.4% 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 22.6% 23.4% 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 16.8% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.0% 11.6% 14.5% 0.80× 8.63
2-1 9.4% 7.3% 11.5% 0.63× 13.76
Any other score 7.5% 7.3% 2.9% 2.50× 13.76
2-0 6.8% 7.3% 6.2% 1.18× 13.77
2-2 6.5% 7.3% 5.2% 1.39× 13.77
3-1 6.6% 7.3% 4.4% 1.67× 13.77
1-2 6.1% 7.3% 7.9% 0.91× 13.77
1-0 5.4% 7.3% 11.0% 0.66× 13.77
0-0 4.2% 1.8% 7.3% 0.25× 55.40
3-0 4.8% 1.8% 4.0% 0.45× 55.39
3-2 4.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.01× 55.40
0-1 3.1% 1.8% 7.7% 0.23× 55.43
0-2 2.9% 1.8% 5.3% 0.34× 55.44
1-3 2.8% 1.8% 3.1% 0.59× 55.44
2-3 3.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.06× 55.43
4-0 2.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.06× 55.45
4-1 3.5% 1.8% 0.9% 2.11× 55.42
0-3 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.11× 55.48
3-3 2.1% 1.8% 0.9% 2.11× 55.46
4-2 2.4% 1.8% 0.8% 2.34× 55.45
0-4 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 4.22× 55.50
1-4 1.0% 1.8% 0.6% 3.01× 55.48
2-4 1.0% 1.8% 0.3% 7.03× 55.48
3-4 0.7% 1.8% 0.3% 7.03× 55.49
4-3 1.1% 1.8% 0.2% 10.54× 55.48
4-4 0.4% 1.8% 0.1% 21.08× 55.50
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United (2nd half DNB) 63.9% 67.0% 1.49
Wrexham (2nd half DNB) 36.1% 33.0% 3.03
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United leading at HT (DNB) 66.5% 67.0% 1.49
Wrexham leading at HT (DNB) 33.5% 33.0% 3.03
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United or Wrexham (12) 76.8% 77.8% 72.4% 1.07× 1.29
West Ham United or draw (1X) 76.2% 77.8% 70.9% 1.10× 1.29
Wrexham or draw (X2) 47.0% 47.9% 56.6% 0.85× 2.09
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United or draw at HT 78.8% 79.0% 1.27
West Ham United or Wrexham at HT 63.1% 63.2% 1.58
Wrexham or draw at HT 58.0% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United or draw (1UP) 76.2% 84.7% 1.18
Wrexham or draw (1UP) 47.0% 55.0% 1.82
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United or draw in 2nd half 75.0% 72.6% 1.38
West Ham United or Wrexham in 2nd half 69.3% 66.3% 1.51
Wrexham or draw in 2nd half 55.7% 60.5% 1.65
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 55.0% 52.5% 1.91
Neither half drawn 45.0% 47.5% 2.11
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United (DNB) 69.1% 69.0% 59.9% 1.15× 1.45
Wrexham (DNB) 30.9% 31.0% 40.1% 0.77× 3.23
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to score first 57.9% 62.3% 1.61
Wrexham to score first 37.9% 37.2% 2.69
No goal scored 4.2% 4.0% 24.72
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 66.7% 60.7% 54.4% 1.11× 1.65
Not both teams to score 33.3% 39.3% 45.6% 0.86× 2.54
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 56.7% 52.5% 40.0% 1.31× 1.90
Not both score & under 2.5 22.5% 25.1% 37.1% 0.68× 3.99
Not both score & over 2.5 10.8% 11.7% 8.5% 1.37× 8.56
Both score & under 2.5 10.0% 11.7% 14.5% 0.80× 8.56
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 75.2% 82.8% 89.0% 0.93× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 24.8% 17.2% 11.0% 1.56× 5.81
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 60.4% 64.3% 1.56
Both teams to score in 2nd half 39.6% 35.7% 2.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.9% 43.7% 2.29
Both score 2nd half only 29.7% 24.9% 4.02
Both score 1st half only 15.5% 18.0% 5.54
Both score in both halves 9.9% 6.5% 15.39
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.6% 74.7% 1.34
Both teams to score by HT 25.4% 25.3% 3.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 67.1% 66.6% 1.50
A half without a goal 32.9% 33.4% 2.99
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 41.4% 43.1% 50.5% 0.85× 2.32
4-6 goals 39.5% 35.6% 22.5% 1.58× 2.81
0-1 goals 12.7% 16.6% 25.8% 0.64× 6.03
7+ goals 6.3% 5.5% 1.4% 3.99× 18.35
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to score exactly 1 34.8% 33.1% 39.6% 0.84× 3.02
Wrexham to score exactly 0 25.3% 27.0% 30.4% 0.89× 3.70
Wrexham to score exactly 2 23.9% 24.1% 20.7% 1.17× 4.15
Wrexham to score 3+ 16.1% 18.4% 9.5% 1.94× 5.42
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to score 3+ 35.1% 36.1% 16.2% 2.24× 2.77
West Ham United to score exactly 2 27.0% 27.1% 24.6% 1.10× 3.70
West Ham United to score exactly 1 25.7% 27.0% 37.0% 0.73× 3.70
West Ham United to score exactly 0 12.2% 13.5% 22.4% 0.60× 7.43
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United leading at HT 42.0% 41.8% 2.39
Draw at HT 36.9% 36.8% 2.72
Wrexham leading at HT 21.2% 21.0% 4.75
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United -1: 2 47.0% 47.1% 2.12
West Ham United -1: 1 32.5% 32.1% 3.12
West Ham United -1: X 20.6% 24.0% 4.17
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:1) 47.0% 47.7% 56.6% 0.84× 2.10
West Ham United (0:1) 32.5% 34.4% 19.3% 1.78× 2.91
Draw (0:1) 20.6% 24.5% 24.2% 1.01× 4.09
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:2) 67.5% 66.1% 80.7% 0.82× 1.51
Draw (0:2) 16.3% 16.3% 11.4% 1.43× 6.15
West Ham United (0:2) 16.2% 16.3% 8.0% 2.02× 6.15
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:3) 83.8% 83.9% 92.0% 0.91× 1.19
Draw (0:3) 9.4% 6.9% 4.8% 1.44× 14.55
West Ham United (0:3) 6.8% 6.8% 3.3% 2.04× 14.70
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (0:4) 93.2% 94.2% 96.7% 0.97× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.4% 1.3% 2.4% 0.52× 79.90
West Ham United (0:4) 2.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.21× 80.88
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United (1:0) 76.2% 78.5% 70.9% 1.11× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 13.1% 11.7% 17.4% 0.67× 8.56
Wrexham (1:0) 10.7% 11.6% 11.8% 0.98× 8.62
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United (2:0) 89.3% 89.4% 88.2% 1.01× 1.12
Draw (2:0) 7.0% 6.5% 8.6% 0.75× 15.36
Wrexham (2:0) 3.7% 2.7% 3.2% 0.84× 36.72
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.9% 48.8% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.9% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 23.2% 23.1% 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to concede 74.7% 71.6% 69.6% 1.03× 1.40
West Ham United clean sheet 25.3% 28.4% 30.4% 0.93× 3.52
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United clean sheet in 1st half 57.7% 59.2% 1.69
West Ham United to concede in 1st half 42.3% 40.8% 2.45
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to concede in 2nd half 56.2% 56.0% 1.79
West Ham United clean sheet in 2nd half 43.8% 44.0% 2.27
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United over 2.5 corners 77.2% 76.6% 1.31
West Ham United under 6.5 corners 73.4% 71.9% 1.39
West Ham United over 3.5 corners 63.3% 62.2% 1.61
West Ham United under 5.5 corners 63.1% 62.2% 1.61
West Ham United under 4.5 corners 50.6% 52.6% 1.90
West Ham United over 4.5 corners 49.4% 47.4% 2.11
West Ham United under 3.5 corners 36.7% 37.8% 2.65
West Ham United over 5.5 corners 36.9% 37.8% 2.65
West Ham United over 6.5 corners 26.6% 28.1% 3.56
West Ham United under 2.5 corners 22.8% 23.4% 4.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United over 0.5 goals 87.8% 87.8% 77.6% 1.13× 1.14
West Ham United under 3.5 goals 83.9% 82.6% 94.9% 0.87× 1.21
West Ham United under 2.5 goals 64.9% 62.9% 83.8% 0.75× 1.59
West Ham United over 1.5 goals 62.1% 62.8% 40.7% 1.54× 1.59
West Ham United under 1.5 goals 37.9% 37.2% 59.3% 0.63× 2.69
West Ham United over 2.5 goals 35.1% 37.1% 16.2% 2.30× 2.70
West Ham United over 3.5 goals 16.1% 17.4% 5.1% 3.40× 5.73
West Ham United under 0.5 goals 12.2% 12.2% 22.4% 0.55× 8.19
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United under 1.5 in 1st half 77.1% 79.1% 1.26
West Ham United over 0.5 in 1st half 59.5% 60.2% 1.66
West Ham United under 0.5 in 1st half 40.5% 39.8% 2.51
West Ham United over 1.5 in 1st half 22.9% 20.9% 4.79
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United scores more in 2nd half 42.8% 40.4% 2.48
West Ham United scores equally in both 29.5% 27.9% 3.59
West Ham United scores more in 1st half 27.7% 27.8% 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 49.4% 50.9% 48.7% 1.04× 1.97
Wrexham (home no bet) 50.6% 49.1% 51.3% 0.96× 2.04
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United even goals 50.7% 50.2% 50.4% 1.00× 1.99
West Ham United odd goals 49.3% 49.8% 49.6% 1.00× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 23.6% 22.7% 4.41
HT 1-0 20.9% 22.6% 4.42
HT 0-1 12.7% 11.2% 8.93
HT 1-1 11.8% 11.2% 8.94
HT 2-0 9.5% 7.7% 12.97
Any other HT score 8.1% 7.7% 12.99
HT 2-1 5.3% 7.7% 13.03
HT 0-2 3.5% 2.5% 39.80
HT 1-2 3.2% 2.5% 39.82
HT 2-2 1.4% 2.5% 39.92
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United at HT / West Ham United at FT 33.9% 34.3% 2.91
Draw at HT / West Ham United at FT 15.7% 16.8% 5.96
Wrexham at HT / Wrexham at FT 12.7% 11.9% 8.38
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.6% 11.9% 8.38
Draw at HT / Wrexham at FT 8.6% 6.6% 15.19
West Ham United at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.6% 15.26
Wrexham at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.4% 29.30
Wrexham at HT / West Ham United at FT 3.5% 3.4% 29.36
West Ham United at HT / Wrexham at FT 2.4% 3.4% 29.40
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to score last 58.0% 56.7% 1.76
Wrexham to score last 37.8% 38.1% 2.63
No goal scored 4.2% 4.0% 24.72
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.8% 96.0% 1.04
West Ham United to lead by 1 at any time 69.9% 71.1% 1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 58.2% 59.6% 1.68
Wrexham to lead by 1 at any time 45.6% 46.1% 2.17
West Ham United to lead by 2 at any time 41.1% 42.1% 2.38
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.6% 26.1% 3.84
West Ham United to lead by 3 at any time 20.0% 17.7% 5.66
Wrexham to lead by 2 at any time 17.6% 17.6% 5.68
Wrexham to lead by 3 at any time 5.6% 7.0% 14.27
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United most corners 55.5% 55.6% 1.80
Wrexham most corners 34.0% 34.4% 2.91
Corners level 10.6% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.9% 81.5% 88.9% 0.92× 1.23
2-6 goals 81.0% 81.5% 72.9% 1.12× 1.23
2-5 goals 73.4% 73.6% 70.3% 1.05× 1.36
1-4 goals 68.8% 68.3% 83.4% 0.82× 1.46
3-6 goals 61.2% 62.2% 47.2% 1.32× 1.61
2-4 goals 60.3% 62.2% 64.9% 0.96× 1.61
3-5 goals 53.6% 52.4% 44.6% 1.17× 1.91
1-3 goals 50.0% 48.0% 69.1% 0.70× 2.08
2-3 goals 41.4% 43.6% 50.5% 0.86× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 39.1% 1.11× 2.29
4-6 goals 39.5% 38.9% 22.5% 1.73× 2.57
4-5 goals 31.9% 34.0% 19.9% 1.71× 2.94
1-2 goals 28.3% 30.6% 44.4% 0.69× 3.27
5-6 goals 20.7% 24.7% 8.1% 3.04× 4.05
7+ goals 6.3% 8.8% 1.4% 6.43× 11.37
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United never behind 50.2% 61.1% 1.64
Wrexham never behind 25.9% 30.6% 3.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.7% 50.2% 49.4% 1.02× 1.99
Even number of goals 52.3% 49.8% 50.6% 0.98× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.1% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.9% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.6% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.4% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.8% 95.7% 92.7% 1.03× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 87.3% 88.8% 74.2% 1.20× 1.13
Under 5.5 goals 86.1% 88.7% 96.1% 0.92× 1.13
Under 4.5 goals 73.0% 72.6% 90.6% 0.80× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 67.5% 65.3% 48.5% 1.35× 1.53
Under 3.5 goals 54.2% 53.6% 76.2% 0.70× 1.87
Over 3.5 goals 45.8% 46.4% 23.8% 1.95× 2.15
Under 2.5 goals 32.5% 34.7% 51.5% 0.67× 2.88
Over 4.5 goals 27.0% 27.4% 9.4% 2.91× 3.65
Over 5.5 goals 13.9% 11.3% 3.9% 2.87× 8.87
Under 1.5 goals 12.7% 11.2% 25.8% 0.44× 8.89
Under 0.5 goals 4.2% 4.3% 7.3% 0.60× 23.01
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.1% 92.8% 98.6% 0.94× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 84.2% 80.6% 65.2% 1.24× 1.24
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 84.0% 80.6% 95.8% 0.84× 1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 66.7% 67.9% 89.0% 0.76× 1.47
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.5% 55.6% 31.6% 1.76× 1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.5% 44.4% 68.4% 0.65× 2.25
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 33.3% 32.1% 11.0% 2.92× 3.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 16.0% 19.4% 4.2% 4.66× 5.16
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 15.9% 19.4% 34.8% 0.56× 5.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.9% 7.2% 1.4% 5.10× 13.96
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.0% 83.6% 1.20
Over 0.5 in 1st half 76.4% 78.0% 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 57.1% 60.1% 1.67
Over 1.5 in 1st half 42.9% 39.9% 2.50
Under 0.5 in 1st half 23.6% 22.0% 4.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half 18.0% 16.4% 6.08
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.4% 85.8% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 67.0% 68.4% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 60.4% 60.8% 1.65
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 39.6% 39.2% 2.55
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 33.0% 31.6% 3.16
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.6% 14.2% 7.04
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to score in both halves 76.2% 77.9% 1.28
West Ham United not to score in both halves 58.5% 59.9% 1.67
West Ham United to score in both halves 41.5% 40.1% 2.50
Wrexham to score in both halves 23.8% 22.1% 4.53
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 66.7% 63.8% 54.4% 1.17× 1.57
Only West Ham United scores 21.1% 22.7% 23.2% 0.98× 4.40
Only Wrexham scores 8.0% 6.6% 15.2% 0.44× 15.08
Neither team scores 4.2% 3.9% 7.3% 0.53× 25.85
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 21.6% 24.8% 0.87× 4.63
Exactly 2 goals 19.8% 18.6% 25.8% 0.72× 5.38
Exactly 4 goals 18.8% 18.6% 14.4% 1.29× 5.38
6 or more goals 13.9% 12.4% 3.9% 3.14× 8.10
Exactly 5 goals 13.1% 12.3% 5.6% 2.22× 8.10
Exactly 1 goals 8.5% 7.6% 18.6% 0.41× 13.12
Exactly 0 goals 4.2% 4.3% 7.3% 0.60× 23.00
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 33.6% 32.6% 3.07
2 goals in 1st half 24.9% 21.7% 4.62
No goals in 1st half 23.6% 21.6% 4.62
3+ goals in 1st half 18.0% 18.3% 5.46
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 60.4% 59.7% 1.68
1 goal in 2nd half 26.0% 28.4% 3.52
No goals in 2nd half 13.6% 13.0% 7.69
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to win both halves 94.6% 93.5% 1.07
West Ham United not to win both halves 81.2% 82.8% 1.21
West Ham United to win both halves 18.8% 17.2% 5.81
Wrexham to win both halves 5.4% 6.5% 15.36
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Ham United to win either half 67.4% 67.1% 1.49
Wrexham to win neither half 59.2% 59.5% 1.68
Wrexham to win either half 40.8% 40.5% 2.47
West Ham United to win neither half 32.6% 32.9% 3.04
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to win to nil 92.0% 92.5% 84.8% 1.09× 1.08
West Ham United not to win to nil 79.0% 77.3% 76.8% 1.01× 1.29
West Ham United to win to nil 21.1% 22.7% 23.2% 0.98× 4.40
Wrexham to win to nil 8.0% 7.5% 15.2% 0.49× 13.38
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.2% 23.9% 27.6% 0.87× 4.19
West Ham United by 1 20.6% 23.9% 24.2% 0.99× 4.19
West Ham United by 2 16.3% 17.0% 11.4% 1.50× 5.87
West Ham United by 3+ 16.2% 17.0% 8.0% 2.12× 5.87
Wrexham by 1 13.1% 11.7% 17.4% 0.68× 8.53
Wrexham by 2 7.0% 7.0% 8.6% 0.81× 14.23
Wrexham by 3+ 3.7% 2.8% 3.2% 0.88× 35.19
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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