Wolfsberger v Austria Lustenau — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 December 2026 · AUT-Bundesliga · 2627
AUT-Bundesliga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.5%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-0 9.5%
- 2-0 9.3%
- 0-0 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | Under 2.5 | 47.6% |
| BTTS yes | 54.6% | BTTS no | 45.4% |
| Wolfsberger 1+ | 82.2% | Wolfsberger 2+ | 51.5% |
| Austria Lustenau 1+ | 64.9% | Austria Lustenau 2+ | 28.2% |
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Wolfsberger.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 35/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0103 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
- Austria Lustenau have only 5 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Wolfsberger have an estimated 52.1% win probability, against 26.2% for the draw and 21.7% for Austria Lustenau. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.73 for Wolfsberger and 1.05 for Austria Lustenau.
Why Wolfsberger
Nothing in the data singles out Wolfsberger.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Austria Lustenau can win
Nothing in the data singles out Austria Lustenau.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Wolfsberger, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Austria Lustenau, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Wolfsberger: 40% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Austria Lustenau: 42% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Wolfsberger are the model's most likely outcome at 52.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 17/100, data quality 35/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.73–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.85–0.94 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 52% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.