Wolverhampton Wanderers v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 27 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.45 – -1.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
18.5%
Draw
28.8%
Aston Villa win
52.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.89–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.08–1.44 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 50% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.55 xGAston Villa 1.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 6' |
Aston Villa |
Pau Torres | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 13' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Toti | 0.39 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 16' |
Aston Villa |
Douglas Luiz | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 22' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 51' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Toti | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 60' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adam Armstrong |
| 66' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tammy Abraham |
| 76' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tammy Abraham |
| 80' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Tammy Abraham | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 84' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 89' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 89' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tolu Arokodare |
| 95' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 97' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Douglas Luiz DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| Jadon Sancho AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Alysson Edward Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mateus Mané AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.06 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Armstrong FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Hugo Bueno DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Angel Gomes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |