Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 13
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.11 – -0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
33.0%
Draw
25.3%
Brentford win
41.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.26–1.61 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.11 xGBrentford 1.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 8' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 10' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 11' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 12' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 13' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | José Sá |
| 15' |
 Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 18' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Christian Nørgaard |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matt Doherty |
| 33' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 36' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 40' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 42' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 43' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | André |
| 49' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Gomes |
| 52' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 56' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marshall Munetsi |
| 62' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 67' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 73' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 78' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 81' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | André |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.69 | 1.69 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.10 | 0.57 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.42 | 1.57 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.87 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1.11 |
| Thiago Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kristoffer Ajer Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Marshall Munetsi AMC | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| Matt Doherty DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.44 |
| Gonçalo Guedes FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.14 | 0.63 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Bueno Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom King Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |