Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 5 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:04

Wolverhampton Wanderers

1–1

0.37 – 1.39 xG

Brighton and Hove Albion

Shots

6 – 18

On target

3 – 6

Shots in box

4 – 10

xG per shot

0.06 – 0.08

Set-piece xG

0.11 – 0.34

Goals − xG

+0.63 – -0.39

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

24.5%

Draw

24.8%

Brighton and Hove Albion win

50.8%

242551

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WDWLWLLWLD last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	242551	1.14–1.73	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	272449	1.17–1.67	1-1 11%	54%	56%	Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.37 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.39 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
9'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Mats Wieffer	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Brajan Gruda
10'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Mats Wieffer	0.06	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Yasin Ayari
13'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Ferdi Kadioglu	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Yankuba Minteh
20'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Bart Verbruggen	0.00	Set Piece	—	Own Goal	—
20'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Marshall Munetsi	0.06	Set Piece	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
23'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Ladislav Krejcí	0.01	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Hugo Bueno
24'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Brajan Gruda	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Yankuba Minteh
25'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Brajan Gruda	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
27'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Brajan Gruda	0.55	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
28'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hee-Chan Hwang	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jhon Arias
32'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Diego Gómez	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Danny Welbeck
43'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jhon Arias	0.04	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
51'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Lewis Dunk	0.07	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
55'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jhon Arias	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Hugo Bueno
57'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Georginio Rutter	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Yankuba Minteh
58'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Yasin Ayari	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mats Wieffer
61'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Diego Gómez	0.08	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Mats Wieffer
72'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Maxim De Cuyper	0.02	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
74'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Georginio Rutter	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Stefanos Tzimas
74'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	João Gomes
81'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Georginio Rutter	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Yankuba Minteh
82'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Yankuba Minteh	0.01	Set Piece	Left Foot	Missed Shot	James Milner
85'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Jan Paul van Hecke	0.05	From Corner	—	Goal	Stefanos Tzimas
85'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Stefanos Tzimas	0.13	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Maxim De Cuyper

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Ferdi Kadioglu DL	90	0	0	1	0	0.10	0.00	0.25
Lewis Dunk DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.07	0.00	0.09
Jan Paul van Hecke DC	90	1	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.29
Yasin Ayari DMC	90	0	0	1	1	0.03	0.06	0.25
Yankuba Minteh AML	90	0	0	1	4	0.01	0.23	0.34
Danny Welbeck FW	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.09
Bart Verbruggen GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Diego Gómez AMC	79	0	0	2	0	0.10	0.00	0.11
Brajan Gruda AMR	72	0	0	3	1	0.61	0.01	0.80
Mats Wieffer DR	72	0	0	2	2	0.07	0.10	0.32
Carlos Baleba DMC	48	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Georginio Rutter Sub	42	0	0	3	0	0.19	0.00	0.27
Stefanos Tzimas Sub	18	0	1	1	2	0.13	0.13	0.07
Maxim De Cuyper Sub	18	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.13	0.07
James Milner Sub	11	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.00