Wolverhampton Wanderers v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.16 – +0.41
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
37.5%
Draw
26.0%
Crystal Palace win
36.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.32 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.16 xGCrystal Palace 2.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Max Kilman | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | João Gomes |
| 16' |
 Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 18' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 21' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 25' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adam Wharton |
| 27' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Crystal Palace |
Nathaniel Clyne | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 32' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 40' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joachim Andersen |
| 41' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 45' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 48' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 54' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.73 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 56' |
Crystal Palace |
Naouirou Ahamada | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 59' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 68' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 79' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Pablo Sarabia | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Toti |
| 93' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Gomes |
| 96' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.16 | 1.31 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.83 | 1.21 |
| Michael Olise AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.94 |
| Nathaniel Clyne DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.82 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Naouirou Ahamada Sub | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 1.03 |
| Odsonne Edouard Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Guehi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Will Hughes MC | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Ward Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Schlupp Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Mario Lemina MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nélson Semedo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Daniel Bentley GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt Doherty DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Boubacar Traore MC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Pablo Sarabia Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enso González Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |