Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 24 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Wolverhampton Wanderers

20:00 UTC

Derby County

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 825h before kick-off

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

58.0%

model 59.9%

Draw

23.0%

model 21.1%

Derby County win

19.1%

model 19.0%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.4%
1-1 9.0%
2-0 7.3%
3-1 7.3%
2-2 6.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	70.1%	Under 2.5	29.9%
BTTS yes	66.3%	BTTS no	33.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1+	90.3%	Wolverhampton Wanderers 2+	67.7%
Derby County 1+	72.3%	Derby County 2+	36.7%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.28. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

45/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 32%

62.3% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 872 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Wolverhampton Wanderers have an estimated 58.0% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 19.1% for Derby County. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.34 for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 1.28 for Derby County.

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers

Nothing in the data singles out Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Derby County can win

Nothing in the data singles out Derby County.

Key players

Wolverhampton Wanderers's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Adam Armstrong (0.34), Tolu Arokodare (0.24), Mateus Mané (0.19).

Availability

1 of Wolverhampton Wanderers's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Derby County, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces. Derby County: 49% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Wolverhampton Wanderers's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Wolverhampton Wanderers are the model's most likely outcome at 58.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.4%. Confidence 45/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	602119	2.34–1.28	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	621919	2.64–1.44	2-1 8%	77%	72%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win	62.3%	58.2%	43.4%	1.34×	1.72
Draw	19.1%	19.4%	27.6%	0.70×	5.15
Derby County to win	18.6%	19.4%	29.1%	0.67×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & both teams score	41.1%	40.0%	20.2%	1.98×	2.50
Wolverhampton Wanderers & not both score	21.2%	21.8%	23.3%	0.94×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	16.6%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.57
Derby County & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.53
Derby County & not both score	4.7%	4.9%	15.2%	0.32×	20.56
Draw & not both score	2.5%	4.9%	7.3%	0.66×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 1.5	58.6%	54.9%	32.5%	1.69×	1.82
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 2.5	52.7%	48.9%	26.4%	1.85×	2.05
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 3.5	39.0%	34.9%	11.1%	3.14×	2.87
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 3.5	23.2%	21.6%	32.4%	0.67×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	16.6%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Derby County & over 1.5	17.0%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Derby County & over 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	16.2%	1.11×	5.56
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 2.5	9.6%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & under 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	21.8%	0.36×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & under 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	21.8%	0.36×	12.63
Derby County & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63
Derby County & under 3.5	8.9%	7.9%	22.3%	0.35×	12.63
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	11.0%	0.44×	20.81
Derby County & under 2.5	3.4%	4.8%	12.9%	0.37×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	2.5%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.82
Derby County & under 1.5	1.7%	4.8%	7.7%	0.62×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1UP)	77.7%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Derby County (1UP)	42.4%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2UP)	62.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Derby County (2UP)	18.6%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 2nd half	51.9%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
2nd half drawn	26.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Derby County to win 2nd half	21.4%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.5%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Derby County over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.9%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Derby County under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.1%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Derby County over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.5%	20.9%	—	—	4.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.7%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+0.5)	81.4%	82.5%	70.9%	1.16×	1.21
Derby County (+2.5)	75.4%	78.5%	91.9%	0.85×	1.27
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-0.5)	62.3%	62.9%	43.4%	1.45×	1.59
Derby County (+1.5)	57.4%	57.0%	80.7%	0.71×	1.75
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-1.5)	42.6%	43.0%	19.3%	2.23×	2.33
Derby County (+0.5)	37.7%	37.1%	56.6%	0.66×	2.70
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-2.5)	24.6%	21.5%	8.1%	2.67×	4.65
Derby County (-0.5)	18.6%	17.5%	29.1%	0.60×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede	92.8%	91.9%	77.6%	1.18×	1.09
Derby County clean sheet	7.2%	8.1%	22.4%	0.36×	12.32

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede in 1st half	67.8%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Derby County clean sheet in 1st half	32.2%	29.5%	—	—	3.39

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede in 2nd half	77.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Derby County clean sheet in 2nd half	22.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 6.5 corners	85.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Derby County under 5.5 corners	77.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Derby County under 4.5 corners	66.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Derby County over 2.5 corners	65.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Derby County under 3.5 corners	51.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Derby County over 3.5 corners	48.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Derby County under 2.5 corners	34.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Derby County over 4.5 corners	34.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Derby County over 5.5 corners	22.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Derby County over 6.5 corners	14.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	97.8%	0.94×	1.08
Derby County under 2.5 goals	82.3%	81.5%	90.6%	0.90×	1.23
Derby County over 0.5 goals	76.4%	76.2%	69.5%	1.10×	1.31
Derby County under 1.5 goals	57.7%	59.4%	70.0%	0.85×	1.68
Derby County over 1.5 goals	42.3%	40.6%	30.0%	1.35×	2.46
Derby County under 0.5 goals	23.6%	23.8%	30.5%	0.78×	4.21
Derby County over 2.5 goals	17.7%	18.5%	9.4%	1.97×	5.39
Derby County over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	2.2%	3.46×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Derby County under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Derby County over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Derby County over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County scores more in 2nd half	40.1%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Derby County scores equally in both	37.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Derby County scores more in 1st half	23.0%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (away no bet)	76.5%	73.5%	61.1%	1.20×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	23.5%	26.5%	38.9%	0.68×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County even goals	52.8%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Derby County odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	65.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Both halves over 1.5 goals	34.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.11

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	84.9%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Both halves under 1.5 goals	15.1%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	77.4%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 2+ in a row	63.7%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Either team to score 3+ in a row	39.9%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ in a row	33.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Derby County to score 2+ in a row	27.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Derby County to score 3+ in a row	7.4%	5.6%	—	—	17.95

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+3.5)	86.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Derby County corners (+3.5)	81.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+2.5)	79.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Derby County corners (+2.5)	73.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+1.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Derby County corners (+1.5)	63.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-1.5)	36.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Derby County corners (-1.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-2.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Derby County corners (-2.5)	20.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-3.5)	18.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Derby County corners (-3.5)	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	59.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	23.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90
12+ corners	16.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	83.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	76.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	69.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	59.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	50.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	49.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	40.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	30.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	23.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	16.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	14.1%	11.5%	3.0%	3.86×	8.72
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.50
1-1	7.2%	7.4%	14.5%	0.51×	13.51
3-1	7.5%	7.4%	4.3%	1.71×	13.50
2-0	5.9%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
3-0	5.2%	7.4%	4.0%	1.85×	13.51
3-2	5.4%	7.4%	1.8%	4.15×	13.51
4-1	4.9%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.29
0-0	2.5%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.31
0-1	1.7%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.31
0-2	1.8%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.31
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-0	3.7%	1.7%	11.0%	0.16×	58.30
1-2	4.6%	1.7%	8.0%	0.21×	58.29
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.31
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.31
3-3	2.6%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.30
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.31
4-0	3.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.30
4-2	3.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.30
4-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.31
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2nd half DNB)	70.8%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Derby County (2nd half DNB)	29.2%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT (DNB)	72.5%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Derby County leading at HT (DNB)	27.5%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1X)	81.4%	80.6%	70.9%	1.14×	1.24
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Derby County (12)	80.9%	80.6%	72.4%	1.11×	1.24
Derby County or draw (X2)	37.7%	41.8%	56.6%	0.74×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at HT	81.4%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Derby County at HT	67.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Derby County or draw at HT	50.8%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1UP)	81.4%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Derby County or draw (1UP)	42.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw in 2nd half	78.6%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Derby County in 2nd half	73.3%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Derby County or draw in 2nd half	48.1%	48.6%	—	—	2.06

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	49.4%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	50.6%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (DNB)	77.0%	74.7%	59.9%	1.25×	1.34
Derby County (DNB)	23.0%	25.3%	40.1%	0.63×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score first	63.0%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Derby County to score first	34.5%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
No goal scored	2.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.7%	62.5%	54.4%	1.15×	1.60
Not both teams to score	28.3%	37.5%	45.6%	0.82×	2.67

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	64.5%	50.5%	39.9%	1.27×	1.98
Not both score & under 2.5	15.5%	21.5%	37.1%	0.58×	4.65
Not both score & over 2.5	12.9%	12.4%	8.6%	1.44×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	7.2%	8.3%	14.5%	0.57×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	68.7%	71.5%	89.0%	0.80×	1.40
Both teams to score 2+	31.3%	28.5%	11.0%	2.60×	3.51

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	54.7%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Both teams to score in 2nd half	45.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.14

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	38.2%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Both score 2nd half only	31.9%	27.1%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	16.5%	15.0%	—	—	6.67
Both score in both halves	13.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	70.1%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	29.9%	20.7%	—	—	4.84

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	74.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
A half without a goal	25.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.96

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	46.3%	47.2%	22.4%	2.10×	2.12
2-3 goals	34.0%	30.8%	50.5%	0.61×	3.25
7+ goals	11.8%	16.9%	1.4%	12.43×	5.92
0-1 goals	7.8%	7.6%	25.9%	0.29×	13.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.8%	39.6%	0.85×	2.96
Derby County to score exactly 2	24.6%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.48
Derby County to score exactly 0	23.6%	22.3%	30.5%	0.73×	4.48
Derby County to score 3+	17.7%	19.6%	9.4%	2.08×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+	49.1%	37.5%	16.1%	2.32×	2.67
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 2	24.9%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 1	18.9%	18.8%	37.0%	0.51×	5.33
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 0	7.2%	10.3%	22.4%	0.46×	9.71

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT	49.2%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	32.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Derby County leading at HT	18.6%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 1	42.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 2	37.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: X	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:1)	42.6%	42.6%	19.3%	2.21×	2.35
Derby County (0:1)	37.7%	37.3%	56.6%	0.66×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	24.2%	0.74×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:2)	57.4%	63.0%	80.7%	0.78×	1.59
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:2)	24.6%	20.4%	8.1%	2.52×	4.91
Draw (0:2)	18.0%	15.3%	11.3%	1.35×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:3)	75.4%	80.4%	91.9%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.4%	10.0%	4.8%	2.09×	10.05
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:3)	12.2%	9.9%	3.4%	2.93×	10.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (0:4)	87.8%	91.9%	96.6%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.0%	4.6%	2.4%	1.94×	21.66
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:4)	5.2%	4.6%	1.1%	4.15×	21.81

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1:0)	81.4%	81.3%	70.9%	1.15×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.4%	12.7%	17.4%	0.73×	7.88
Derby County (1:0)	8.2%	6.9%	11.7%	0.59×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2:0)	91.8%	94.0%	88.3%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.71
Derby County (2:0)	2.9%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.65

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	20.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede	76.4%	76.1%	69.5%	1.09×	1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet	23.6%	23.9%	30.5%	0.79×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 1st half	43.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 2nd half	57.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 2nd half	42.1%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 6.5 corners	82.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 5.5 corners	72.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 corners	69.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 4.5 corners	61.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 corners	53.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 corners	46.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 4.5 corners	39.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 corners	30.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 5.5 corners	27.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 6.5 corners	18.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 goals	92.8%	92.2%	77.6%	1.19×	1.08
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 goals	74.0%	74.3%	40.6%	1.83×	1.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 goals	72.9%	74.2%	94.8%	0.78×	1.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 goals	51.0%	53.2%	83.9%	0.63×	1.88
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 goals	49.1%	46.8%	16.1%	2.90×	2.14
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 goals	27.1%	25.8%	5.2%	4.97×	3.88
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 goals	26.0%	25.7%	59.4%	0.43×	3.88
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 goals	7.2%	7.8%	22.4%	0.35×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half	68.7%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half	31.3%	31.0%	—	—	3.22

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores more in 2nd half	45.7%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores more in 1st half	28.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores equally in both	25.7%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.6%	51.3%	48.7%	1.05×	1.95
Derby County (home no bet)	49.4%	48.7%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers even goals	50.3%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Wolverhampton Wanderers odd goals	49.7%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	20.4%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-0	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Any other HT score	12.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 1-1	12.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 2-0	11.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 0-1	10.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 2-1	6.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.15

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT	41.8%	41.1%	—	—	2.44
Draw at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT	16.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Derby County at HT / Derby County at FT	9.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.55
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
Draw at HT / Derby County at FT	6.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Derby County at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.60
Derby County at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Derby County at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score last	63.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Derby County to score last	34.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	2.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.54

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time	77.7%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	66.9%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time	52.2%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Derby County to lead by 1 at any time	42.4%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	34.6%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time	29.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Derby County to lead by 2 at any time	15.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Derby County to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	1.7%	—	—	60.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers most corners	47.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Derby County most corners	40.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.4%	83.4%	72.8%	1.15×	1.20
1-5 goals	74.9%	72.4%	88.8%	0.82×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.5%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.5%	68.8%	47.2%	1.46×	1.45
1-4 goals	58.9%	59.1%	83.3%	0.71×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.7%	53.2%	44.5%	1.19×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.6%	53.2%	64.7%	0.82×	1.88
4-6 goals	46.3%	48.5%	22.4%	2.16×	2.06
1-3 goals	39.4%	39.2%	69.1%	0.57×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.7%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.5%	39.2%	19.8%	1.98×	2.55
2-3 goals	34.0%	35.2%	50.5%	0.70×	2.84
5-6 goals	26.8%	30.2%	8.2%	3.71×	3.31
1-2 goals	20.2%	24.5%	44.4%	0.55×	4.09
7+ goals	11.8%	14.8%	1.4%	10.89×	6.75

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers never behind	55.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Derby County never behind	19.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.4%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.6%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.5%	95.4%	92.7%	1.03×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	74.1%	1.25×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	77.3%	77.3%	96.0%	0.81×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	77.3%	77.3%	48.4%	1.60×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	61.4%	61.7%	90.6%	0.68×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	58.2%	58.6%	23.7%	2.47×	1.71
Under 3.5 goals	41.8%	41.4%	76.3%	0.54×	2.42
Over 4.5 goals	38.6%	38.3%	9.4%	4.06×	2.61
Over 5.5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	4.0%	5.68×	4.41
Under 2.5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	51.6%	0.44×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	25.9%	0.30×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	2.5%	4.6%	7.3%	0.63×	21.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	90.8%	92.4%	65.1%	1.42×	1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	86.7%	86.7%	98.6%	0.88×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	73.0%	72.4%	95.8%	0.76×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.0%	72.4%	31.5%	2.30×	1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	52.0%	51.9%	89.0%	0.58×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	48.0%	48.1%	11.0%	4.37×	2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.0%	27.6%	68.5%	0.40×	3.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	27.0%	27.6%	4.2%	6.54×	3.62
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	13.3%	13.3%	1.4%	9.51×	7.53
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	9.2%	7.6%	34.9%	0.22×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	81.8%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	75.4%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Over 1.5 in 1st half	51.2%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 1st half	48.8%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Over 2.5 in 1st half	24.6%	21.9%	—	—	4.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	18.2%	14.2%	—	—	7.03

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.4%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	68.7%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	57.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	42.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	31.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.6%	10.6%	—	—	9.46

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to score in both halves	74.6%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score in both halves	52.7%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to score in both halves	47.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Derby County to score in both halves	25.4%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	71.7%	66.1%	54.4%	1.22×	1.51
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers scores	21.2%	22.2%	23.3%	0.96×	4.50
Only Derby County scores	4.7%	4.6%	15.2%	0.30×	21.65
Neither team scores	2.5%	4.6%	7.3%	0.63×	21.74

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	22.7%	22.6%	4.0%	5.65×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.5%	17.5%	14.4%	1.22×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	19.2%	17.5%	24.8%	0.70×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	16.0%	17.5%	5.5%	3.16×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	14.9%	12.1%	25.7%	0.47×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	5.4%	7.6%	18.7%	0.41×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	2.5%	4.5%	7.3%	0.61×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	30.6%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	26.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
3+ goals in 1st half	24.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
No goals in 1st half	18.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	68.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.61
1 goal in 2nd half	21.7%	22.7%	—	—	4.40
No goals in 2nd half	9.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to win both halves	95.9%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win both halves	74.3%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win both halves	25.7%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Derby County to win both halves	4.1%	2.8%	—	—	35.11

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win either half	75.4%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Derby County to win neither half	64.0%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Derby County to win either half	36.0%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win neither half	24.7%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County not to win to nil	95.3%	96.1%	84.8%	1.13×	1.04
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win to nil	78.8%	78.1%	76.7%	1.02×	1.28
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win to nil	21.2%	21.9%	23.3%	0.94×	4.57
Derby County to win to nil	4.7%	3.9%	15.2%	0.26×	25.53

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 3+	24.6%	24.1%	8.1%	2.99×	4.15
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 1	19.6%	17.1%	24.2%	0.70×	5.86
Draw	19.1%	17.1%	27.6%	0.62×	5.86
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 2	18.0%	17.1%	11.3%	1.51×	5.87
Derby County by 1	10.4%	11.8%	17.4%	0.67×	8.51
Derby County by 2	5.4%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.92
Derby County by 3+	2.9%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.81