Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 March 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Wolverhampton Wanderers

1–1

0.81 – 1.37 xG

Everton

Shots

11 – 12

On target

3 – 4

Shots in box

5 – 7

xG per shot

0.07 – 0.11

Set-piece xG

0.22 – 0.74

Goals − xG

+0.19 – -0.37

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

31.5%

Draw

28.3%

Everton win

40.2%

322840

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLLDDLLWDD last 10 scored 15 from 13.7 xG conceded 18 from 18.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	322840	1.22–1.40	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	372735	1.26–1.22	1-1 13%	45%	50%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.81 xGEverton 1.37 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Everton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
6'	Everton	Abdoulaye Doucouré	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Beto
10'	Everton	Abdoulaye Doucouré	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
10'	Everton	Jesper Lindstrom	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Abdoulaye Doucouré
11'	Everton	Jarrad Branthwaite	0.11	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	James Garner
12'	Everton	Beto	0.52	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Jack Harrison
15'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Rayan Ait Nouri	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
16'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	André	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
16'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Marshall Munetsi	0.11	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Rayan Ait Nouri
29'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Marshall Munetsi	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	André
32'	Everton	Jack Harrison	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Jesper Lindstrom
34'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	João Gomes
37'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	André	0.07	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
39'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Marshall Munetsi	0.33	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
49'	Everton	Abdoulaye Doucouré	0.08	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
50'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	João Gomes	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Jørgen Strand Larsen
51'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Pablo Sarabia	0.04	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
55'	Everton	Idrissa Gueye	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jack Harrison
71'	Everton	Beto	0.31	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Carlos Alcaraz
71'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Pablo Sarabia
77'	Everton	James Tarkowski	0.04	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	James Garner
82'	Everton	Carlos Alcaraz	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Jake O'Brien
88'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Pablo Sarabia	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
89'	Everton	Carlos Alcaraz	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Idrissa Gueye

Players

Everton

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Beto FW	90	0	0	2	1	0.83	0.05	0.36
Jarrad Branthwaite DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.11	0.00	0.01
Jack Harrison AML	90	1	0	1	2	0.06	0.53	0.43
James Tarkowski DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.38
Idrissa Gueye DMC	90	0	0	1	1	0.01	0.03	0.35
Vitalii Mykolenko DL	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jordan Pickford GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.01
Jake O'Brien DR	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.39
James Garner DMC	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.15	0.33
Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC	64	0	0	3	1	0.21	0.02	0.16
Jesper Lindstrom AMR	64	0	1	1	1	0.02	0.06	0.09
Carlos Alcaraz Sub	26	0	0	2	1	0.09	0.31	0.40
Tim Iroegbunam Sub	26	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ashley Young Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00