Wolverhampton Wanderers v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 1.06
Goals − xG
-0.50 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
24.7%
Draw
30.1%
Fulham win
45.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 16.5 xG
conceded 12
from 14.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.02–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–1.38 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.50 xGFulham 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 16' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 19' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 24' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 30' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 33' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 51' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 52' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 69' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 80' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 82' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 85' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Pedro Lima | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 87' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 89' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua King |
| 91' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Issa Diop DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Oscar Bobb AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Rodrigo Muniz FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kevin Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Raúl Jiménez Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joshua King Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Harry Wilson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Samuel Chukwueze Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yerson Mosquera DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Mateus Mané AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.78 | 0.41 |
| André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Gomes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Rodrigo Gomes AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| David Møller Wolfe DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang AML | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Adam Armstrong FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Pedro Lima Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Hugo Bueno Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |