Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 6
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 2
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.57 – +2.54
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
30.0%
Draw
29.3%
Leeds United win
40.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 0.97–1.19 | 0-1 14% | 37% | 43% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.57 xGLeeds United 0.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fernando López |
| 13' |
 Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 30' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fernando López |
| 43' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 44' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Anton Stach |
| 44' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emmanuel Agbadou |
| 47' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Emmanuel Agbadou | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Gomes |
| 48' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 54' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tolu Arokodare |
| 57' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 64' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Emmanuel Agbadou | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 73' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 76' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jhon Arias |
| 78' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 83' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Emmanuel Agbadou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jhon Arias |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
Players
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladislav Krejcí MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.01 | 0.58 |
| Tolu Arokodare FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.93 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.97 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.96 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Toti DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Rodrigo Gomes DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Fernando López AMC | 49 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| Marshall Munetsi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Hugo Bueno Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| André Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jhon Arias Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Brenden Aaronson FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Okafor FWL | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Justin Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilia Gruev Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |