Wolverhampton Wanderers v Luton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 27 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Wolverhampton Wanderers

2–1

1.49 – 0.90 xG

Luton

Shots

13 – 9

On target

5 – 6

Shots in box

6 – 6

xG per shot

0.11 – 0.10

Set-piece xG

0.42 – 0.19

Goals − xG

+0.51 – +0.10

AI prediction

dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

57.2%

Draw

20.5%

Luton win

22.3%

572022

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Luton are finishing above their chances — 2.3 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLLWLLLDLL last 10 scored 11 from 8.7 xG conceded 26 from 22.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
dc-xg-oos	572022	2.16–1.29	2-1 10%	67%	64%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.49 xGLuton 0.90 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Luton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
5'	Luton	Ross Barkley	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
6'	Luton	Carlton Morris	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Alfie Doughty
6'	Luton	Jordan Clark	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Reece Burke
12'	Luton	Carlton Morris	0.02	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Daiki Hashioka
20'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hee-Chan Hwang	0.29	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Mario Lemina
20'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hee-Chan Hwang	0.01	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	—
21'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mario Lemina	0.02	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	João Gomes
24'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Toti	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Max Kilman
27'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Boubacar Traore	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
37'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	João Gomes	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
38'	Luton	Carlton Morris	0.49	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Jordan Clark
38'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hee-Chan Hwang	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Matheus Cunha
49'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Toti	0.41	From Corner	—	Goal	Mario Lemina
60'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Boubacar Traore	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
62'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Matheus Cunha	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Boubacar Traore
68'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Nélson Semedo	0.41	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Matt Doherty
69'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Boubacar Traore	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Hee-Chan Hwang
74'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mario Lemina	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Boubacar Traore
79'	Luton	Carlton Morris	0.12	From Corner	Right Foot	Goal	Reece Burke
79'	Luton	Cauley Woodrow	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Alfie Doughty
82'	Luton	Cauley Woodrow	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
95'	Luton	Luke Berry	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—

Players

Luton

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Carlton Morris FW	90	1	0	4	0	0.73	0.00	0.61
Albert Sambi Lokonga MC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Thomas Kaminski GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Teden Mengi DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.09
Tahith Chong AMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Reece Burke DC	90	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.15	0.09
Gabriel Osho DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.17
Alfie Doughty DML	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.14	0.68
Ross Barkley MC	80	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.09
Jordan Clark AMC	68	0	0	1	1	0.03	0.49	0.57
Daiki Hashioka DMR	68	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.09
Cauley Woodrow Sub	22	0	0	2	0	0.07	0.00	0.00
Luke Berry Sub	22	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.04
Elijah Adebayo Sub	10	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Fred Onyedinma Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00