Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 16 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:07

Wolverhampton Wanderers

0–4

0.52 – 2.30 xG

Manchester City

Shots

9 – 15

On target

3 – 4

Shots in box

6 – 8

xG per shot

0.06 – 0.15

Set-piece xG

0.11 – 0.59

Goals − xG

-0.52 – +1.69

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

23.1%

Draw

24.9%

Manchester City win

51.9%

232552

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDWWDLWWW last 10 scored 21 from 23.7 xG conceded 9 from 13.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	232552	0.99–1.62	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	242353	1.10–1.77	1-1 11%	55%	55%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.52 xGManchester City 2.31 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Manchester City attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
17'	Manchester City	Erling Haaland	0.24	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Bernardo Silva
18'	Manchester City	Erling Haaland	0.55	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Bernardo Silva
25'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Ki-Jana Hoever
28'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	João Gomes
32'	Manchester City	Nico González	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
32'	Manchester City	Rayan Ait Nouri	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
33'	Manchester City	Erling Haaland	0.76	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Rico Lewis
33'	Manchester City	Nico González	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Rayan Ait Nouri
36'	Manchester City	Tijjani Reijnders	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Oscar Bobb
42'	Manchester City	Erling Haaland	0.12	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Bernardo Silva
45'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
48'	Manchester City	Erling Haaland	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Bernardo Silva
51'	Manchester City	Rayan Ait Nouri	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
57'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.11	Set Piece	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
60'	Manchester City	Erling Haaland	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Tijjani Reijnders
73'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Marshall Munetsi	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
74'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Jhon Arias
76'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Emmanuel Agbadou	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Toti
80'	Manchester City	Mathis Cherki	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
86'	Manchester City	Tijjani Reijnders	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Oscar Bobb
86'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Fernando López	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Hee-Chan Hwang
91'	Manchester City	Omar Marmoush	0.16	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
91'	Manchester City	Tijjani Reijnders	0.04	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
92'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Fernando López	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Hugo Bueno

Players

Manchester City

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Tijjani Reijnders MC	90	1	1	3	1	0.16	0.09	0.99
Nico González MC	90	0	0	2	0	0.09	0.00	0.76
Rayan Ait Nouri DL	90	0	0	2	1	0.06	0.02	1.47
Oscar Bobb FWR	90	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.13	0.78
Rúben Dias DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.93
James Trafford GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.39
John Stones DC	87	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.46
Erling Haaland FW	78	2	0	6	0	1.79	0.00	1.39
Rico Lewis DR	71	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.76	1.39
Bernardo Silva MC	71	0	0	0	4	0.00	0.94	0.72
Jéremy Doku FWL	71	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.65
Omar Marmoush Sub	19	0	0	1	0	0.16	0.00	0.00
Nico O'Reilly Sub	19	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Matheus Nunes Sub	19	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mathis Cherki Sub	12	1	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.05
Abduqodir Khusanov Sub	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04