Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 8 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 27
On target
2 – 8
Shots in box
4 – 20
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 1.58
Goals − xG
+0.74 – -0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
21.9%
Draw
22.7%
Manchester United win
55.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLWDLDDDL last 10
scored 16
from 20.0 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.50 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.26 xGManchester United 4.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 7' |
 Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.29 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 8' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 8' |
Manchester United |
Noussair Mazraoui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 17' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Manchester United |
Ayden Heaven | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luke Shaw |
| 18' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 22' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 24' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matheus Cunha |
| 28' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 28' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 40' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | André |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 46' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | David Møller Wolfe |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Casemiro |
| 49' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Diogo Dalot |
| 56' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 58' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 61' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 61' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 65' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 66' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.21 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 70' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Emmanuel Agbadou | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | André |
| 76' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 81' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 94' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Fernando López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
| 98' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
Players
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1.48 | 1.31 | 1.60 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 1.26 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.45 | 1.79 |
| Amad Diallo Traore DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Diogo Dalot DML | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Casemiro MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1.11 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| Ayden Heaven DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Lisandro Martínez Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kobbie Mainoo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Dorgu Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladislav Krejcí MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| David Møller Wolfe DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Ki-Jana Hoever DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Jhon Arias AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Toti DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 56 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Fernando López Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hugo Bueno Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateus Mané Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |