Wolverhampton Wanderers v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 12
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.41
Goals − xG
-0.39 – -0.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
15.3%
Draw
24.3%
Newcastle United win
60.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.89–1.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.00–1.61 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 51% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.39 xGNewcastle United 0.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 15' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 28' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 30' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 35' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 43' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | João Gomes |
| 43' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hugo Bueno | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Gomes |
| 51' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | João Gomes |
| 59' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 78' |
Newcastle United |
Kieran Trippier | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Malick Thiaw |
| 84' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 90' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 95' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| Harvey Barnes FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Mateus Mané MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Hugo Bueno DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| João Gomes MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Tolu Arokodare FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jhon Arias Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |