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Wolverhampton Wanderers v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 9 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
10 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.03 – -0.22
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Harry Toffolo 13' — goalMatheus Cunha 31' — goal
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.03 xGNottingham Forest 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Harry Toffolo 13' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Hee-Chan Hwang 25' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 29' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Matheus Cunha 31' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Hugo Bueno 36' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nélson Semedo 38' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Cheikhou Kouyaté 49' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Cheikhou Kouyaté 49' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Craig Dawson 49' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Harry Toffolo 69' — Missed Shot (0.60 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 69' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ryan Yates 70' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Anthony Elanga 72' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 74' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 74' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Boubacar Traore 78' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Felipe 83' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Morgan Gibbs-White 84' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Nottingham Forest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
13' Nottingham Forest Harry Toffolo 0.08 Open Play Goal Neco Williams
25' Wolverhampton Wanderers Hee-Chan Hwang 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot
29' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Craig Dawson
31' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pablo Sarabia
36' Wolverhampton Wanderers Hugo Bueno 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pablo Sarabia
38' Wolverhampton Wanderers Nélson Semedo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
49' Nottingham Forest Cheikhou Kouyaté 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
49' Nottingham Forest Cheikhou Kouyaté 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Moussa Niakhate
49' Wolverhampton Wanderers Craig Dawson 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
69' Nottingham Forest Harry Toffolo 0.60 Open Play Missed Shot Neco Williams
69' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.09 Open Play Saved Shot Boubacar Traore
70' Nottingham Forest Ryan Yates 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anthony Elanga
72' Nottingham Forest Anthony Elanga 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Morgan Gibbs-White
74' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
74' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
78' Wolverhampton Wanderers Boubacar Traore 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Max Kilman
83' Nottingham Forest Felipe 0.03 Open Play Blocked Shot Moussa Niakhate
84' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Harry Toffolo DML 90 1 0 2 0 0.68 0.00 0.77
Ryan Yates MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Anthony Elanga FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.09 0.75
Morgan Gibbs-White FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.06 0.22
Willy Boly DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Orel Mangala MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Neco Williams DMR 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.68 0.77
Moussa Niakhate DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.08 0.17
Matt Turner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Murillo DC 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Cheikhou Kouyaté MC 69 0 0 2 0 0.33 0.00 0.41
Danilo Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Felipe Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Chris Wood Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matheus Cunha FWL 90 1 0 5 0 0.79 0.00 0.78
Craig Dawson DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.03 0.09
Hee-Chan Hwang FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.20
Nélson Semedo DMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.64
Max Kilman DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.09
João Gomes MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
José Sá GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Toti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Hugo Bueno DML 75 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.11
Pablo Sarabia FWR 75 0 1 0 4 0.00 0.71 0.64
Mario Lemina MC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Boubacar Traore Sub 23 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.09 0.09
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Matt Doherty Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sasa Kalajdzic Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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