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Wrexham v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Wrexham win
38.4%
model 38.1%
Draw
23.2%
model 23.8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
38.4%
model 38.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 9.7%
  2. 2-1 7.9%
  3. 1-2 7.9%
  4. 2-2 7.2%
  5. 3-1 4.8%

Goals

Over 2.570.6% Under 2.529.4%
BTTS yes71.4% BTTS no28.6%
Wrexham 1+83.9% Wrexham 2+54.5%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1+83.9% Wolverhampton Wanderers 2+54.4%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.82. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
45/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
91%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 32%
62.3% fair odds 1.61
strong signal · 872 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Wrexham carry the stronger rating, 1483 Elo against 1417.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Wrexham have an estimated 38.4% win probability, against 38.4% for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.83 for Wrexham and 1.82 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Why Wrexham

Wrexham carry the stronger rating, 1483 Elo against 1417.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.83 to 1.82. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers can win

Nothing in the data singles out Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Key players

Wolverhampton Wanderers's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Adam Armstrong (0.34), Tolu Arokodare (0.24), Mateus Mané (0.19).

Availability

No lineup on record for Wrexham, so availability is unknown. 1 of Wolverhampton Wanderers's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Wrexham: 56% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Wolverhampton Wanderers: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Wrexham are the model's most likely outcome at 38.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.7%. Confidence 45/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.83–1.82 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.01–2.39 2-2 7% 81% 79%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 46.5% 47.4% 29.1% 1.63× 2.11
Wrexham to win 32.6% 30.4% 43.4% 0.70× 3.29
Draw 20.8% 24.5% 27.6% 0.89× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & both teams score 35.0% 33.3% 13.9% 2.39× 3.01
Wrexham & both teams score 25.3% 25.2% 20.2% 1.24× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Wolverhampton Wanderers & not both score 11.5% 13.3% 15.2% 0.87× 7.54
Wrexham & not both score 7.3% 8.3% 23.3% 0.36× 12.00
Draw & not both score 2.0% 4.9% 7.3% 0.67× 20.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 1.5 44.3% 40.3% 21.4% 1.88× 2.48
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 2.5 40.8% 40.3% 16.2% 2.48× 2.49
Wrexham & over 1.5 30.8% 30.7% 32.5% 0.95× 3.25
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 3.5 30.9% 30.7% 6.8% 4.52× 3.25
Wrexham & over 2.5 28.3% 26.1% 26.4% 0.99× 3.84
Wrexham & over 3.5 20.7% 21.6% 11.1% 1.94× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.55
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 3.5 15.7% 18.0% 22.3% 0.81× 5.56
Wrexham & under 3.5 11.9% 12.8% 32.4% 0.40× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 12.2% 12.8% 5.9% 2.16× 7.79
Draw & over 3.5 12.2% 12.8% 5.9% 2.16× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 8.6% 7.9% 21.8% 0.36× 12.63
Draw & under 3.5 8.6% 7.9% 21.8% 0.36× 12.63
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 2.5 5.8% 7.9% 12.9% 0.61× 12.63
Wrexham & under 2.5 4.3% 4.8% 17.1% 0.28× 20.82
Wrexham & under 1.5 1.8% 4.8% 11.0% 0.43× 20.83
Draw & under 1.5 2.0% 4.8% 7.3% 0.66× 20.83
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 1.5 2.2% 4.8% 7.7% 0.62× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1UP) 68.0% 70.3% — — 1.42
Wrexham (1UP) 57.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2UP) 46.5% 50.0% — — 2.00
Wrexham (2UP) 32.6% 30.3% — — 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 2nd half 43.4% 42.0% — — 2.38
Wrexham to win 2nd half 29.9% 26.2% — — 3.82
2nd half drawn 26.7% 26.1% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.1% 79.4% — — 1.26
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.2% 54.4% — — 1.84
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.8% 45.6% — — 2.20
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.9% 20.6% — — 4.85
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 1.5 in 2nd half 68.4% 70.8% — — 1.41
Wrexham over 0.5 in 2nd half 68.1% 70.8% — — 1.41
Wrexham under 0.5 in 2nd half 31.9% 29.2% — — 3.42
Wrexham over 1.5 in 2nd half 31.7% 29.2% — — 3.42
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+2.5) 92.1% 92.1% 91.9% 1.00× 1.09
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+1.5) 82.3% 82.6% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+0.5) 67.4% 68.7% 56.6% 1.21× 1.46
Wrexham (+0.5) 53.5% 52.4% 70.9% 0.74× 1.91
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-0.5) 46.5% 47.6% 29.1% 1.64× 2.10
Wrexham (-0.5) 32.6% 31.3% 43.4% 0.72× 3.19
Wrexham (-1.5) 17.7% 17.4% 19.3% 0.90× 5.74
Wrexham (-2.5) 7.9% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede 86.5% 86.3% 77.6% 1.11× 1.16
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet 13.5% 13.7% 22.4% 0.61× 7.28
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 1st half 57.8% 56.4% — — 1.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half 42.2% 43.6% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 2nd half 68.1% 65.7% — — 1.52
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 2nd half 31.9% 34.3% — — 2.92
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 6.5 corners 91.5% 89.9% — — 1.11
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 5.5 corners 85.3% 85.2% — — 1.17
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 4.5 corners 75.7% 76.0% — — 1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 corners 61.9% 61.7% — — 1.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 corners 55.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 corners 44.2% 42.8% — — 2.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 corners 38.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 4.5 corners 24.3% 24.0% — — 4.17
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 5.5 corners 14.7% 14.8% — — 6.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 6.5 corners 8.5% 10.1% — — 9.89
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 69.5% 1.33× 1.08
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 goals 78.2% 76.3% 97.8% 0.78× 1.31
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 goals 68.8% 68.0% 30.0% 2.27× 1.47
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 goals 57.4% 59.4% 90.6% 0.66× 1.68
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 goals 42.6% 40.6% 9.4% 4.30× 2.47
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 goals 31.2% 32.0% 70.0% 0.46× 3.13
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 goals 21.8% 23.7% 2.2% 10.75× 4.21
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 30.5% 0.25× 13.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half 75.3% 74.7% — — 1.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half 61.5% 63.2% — — 1.58
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half 38.5% 36.8% — — 2.71
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half 24.7% 25.3% — — 3.95
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores more in 2nd half 48.1% 48.2% — — 2.07
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores equally in both 26.8% 26.5% — — 3.78
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores more in 1st half 25.1% 26.4% — — 3.79
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (away no bet) 61.0% 61.9% 61.1% 1.01× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 39.0% 38.1% 38.9% 0.98× 2.62
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers even goals 50.4% 52.6% 52.4% 1.00× 1.90
Wolverhampton Wanderers odd goals 49.6% 47.4% 47.6% 1.00× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 60.6% 64.4% — — 1.55
Both halves over 1.5 goals 39.4% 35.6% — — 2.81
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 87.9% 83.9% — — 1.19
Both halves under 1.5 goals 12.1% 16.1% — — 6.21
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 79.1% 75.8% — — 1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 2+ in a row 54.9% 51.0% — — 1.96
Wrexham to score 2+ in a row 43.7% 38.8% — — 2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row 38.9% 36.6% — — 2.73
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ in a row 24.7% 19.6% — — 5.11
Wrexham to score 3+ in a row 16.1% 16.1% — — 6.20
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham corners (+3.5) 92.1% 89.6% — — 1.12
Wrexham corners (+2.5) 87.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Wrexham corners (+1.5) 79.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+3.5) 73.4% 70.8% — — 1.41
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+2.5) 63.8% 61.9% — — 1.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+1.5) 52.7% 52.4% — — 1.91
Wrexham corners (-1.5) 47.3% 47.6% — — 2.10
Wrexham corners (-2.5) 36.2% 38.1% — — 2.62
Wrexham corners (-3.5) 26.6% 29.2% — — 3.42
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-1.5) 20.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-2.5) 13.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-3.5) 7.9% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 61.8% 48.3% — — 2.07
9-11 corners 22.7% 25.7% — — 3.90
12+ corners 15.5% 22.5% — — 4.44
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 89.1% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 84.5% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 78.5% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 71.0% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 8.5 corners 61.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 7.5 corners 51.4% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 7.5 corners 48.6% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 8.5 corners 38.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 9.5 corners 29.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 10.5 corners 21.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 15.5% 19.3% — — 5.18
Over 12.5 corners 10.9% 16.9% — — 5.92
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 14.1% 11.5% 3.0% 3.86× 8.71
1-1 6.6% 7.4% 14.5% 0.51× 13.51
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
2-2 7.1% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.51
1-3 5.6% 7.4% 3.1% 2.42× 13.51
2-1 6.0% 7.4% 11.5% 0.65× 13.51
2-3 5.6% 7.4% 1.7% 4.36× 13.51
3-2 4.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.29
0-0 2.0% 1.7% 7.3% 0.23× 58.31
0-1 2.2% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.31
0-2 3.5% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.30
0-3 2.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.30
0-4 1.7% 1.7% 0.4% 4.04× 58.31
1-0 1.8% 1.7% 11.0% 0.16× 58.31
1-4 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 2.88× 58.30
2-0 2.5% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.31
2-4 3.4% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.30
3-0 1.7% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.31
3-1 4.0% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-3 3.8% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.30
3-4 2.2% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.31
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.31
4-1 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.31
4-2 2.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.31
4-3 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% 10.09× 58.31
4-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.1% 20.18× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2nd half DNB) 59.2% 59.6% — — 1.68
Wrexham (2nd half DNB) 40.8% 40.4% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT (DNB) 53.7% 56.2% — — 1.78
Wrexham leading at HT (DNB) 46.3% 43.8% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham or Wolverhampton Wanderers (12) 79.2% 75.5% 72.4% 1.04× 1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (X2) 67.4% 69.6% 56.6% 1.23× 1.44
Wrexham or draw (1X) 53.5% 52.6% 70.9% 0.74× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at HT 69.0% 67.2% — — 1.49
Wrexham or Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT 67.1% 67.2% — — 1.49
Wrexham or draw at HT 64.0% 61.0% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1UP) 68.0% 76.4% — — 1.31
Wrexham or draw (1UP) 57.1% 63.0% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham or Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2nd half 73.3% 73.9% — — 1.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw in 2nd half 70.1% 73.8% — — 1.35
Wrexham or draw in 2nd half 56.6% 58.0% — — 1.73
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Neither half drawn 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (DNB) 58.8% 58.1% 40.1% 1.45× 1.72
Wrexham (DNB) 41.2% 41.9% 59.9% 0.70× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score first 53.3% 53.4% — — 1.87
Wrexham to score first 44.8% 41.8% — — 2.39
No goal scored 2.0% 4.3% — — 23.12
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 79.3% 62.5% 54.4% 1.15× 1.60
Not both teams to score 20.7% 37.5% 45.6% 0.82× 2.67
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 72.6% 59.4% 39.9% 1.49× 1.68
Not both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.4% 37.1% 0.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.7% 8.3% 8.6% 0.97× 12.06
Both score & under 2.5 6.6% 8.3% 14.5% 0.57× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 59.0% 61.8% 89.0% 0.69× 1.62
Both teams to score 2+ 41.0% 38.2% 11.0% 3.48× 2.62
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half 52.1% 51.1% — — 1.96
Not both to score in 2nd half 47.9% 48.9% — — 2.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score 2nd half only 33.7% 29.0% — — 3.44
Neither half both score 30.7% 28.4% — — 3.52
Both score in both halves 18.4% 15.0% — — 6.68
Both score 1st half only 17.2% 14.9% — — 6.71
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 64.4% 65.3% — — 1.53
Both teams to score by HT 35.6% 34.7% — — 2.88
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 77.7% 78.6% — — 1.27
A half without a goal 22.3% 21.4% — — 4.67
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 48.4% 47.2% 22.4% 2.10× 2.12
2-3 goals 30.2% 30.7% 50.5% 0.61× 3.26
7+ goals 15.4% 20.2% 1.4% 14.87× 4.95
0-1 goals 6.0% 7.6% 25.9% 0.29× 13.15
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ 42.6% 37.3% 9.4% 3.96× 2.68
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 2 26.2% 27.4% 20.6% 1.33× 3.65
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 1 22.0% 22.3% 39.6% 0.56× 4.49
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 0 9.2% 8.6% 30.5% 0.28× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to score 3+ 32.5% 32.6% 16.1% 2.02× 3.07
Wrexham to score exactly 1 27.0% 26.6% 37.0% 0.72× 3.77
Wrexham to score exactly 2 27.1% 26.6% 24.6% 1.08× 3.77
Wrexham to score exactly 0 13.5% 14.3% 22.4% 0.64× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT 36.0% 39.0% — — 2.57
Draw at HT 32.9% 32.8% — — 3.05
Wrexham leading at HT 31.0% 32.8% — — 3.05
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 1 53.5% 52.2% — — 1.92
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 2 28.7% 26.5% — — 3.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: X 17.8% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:1) 67.4% 65.2% 56.6% 1.15× 1.53
Wrexham (0:1) 17.7% 17.8% 19.3% 0.92× 5.61
Draw (0:1) 14.9% 13.7% 24.2% 0.57× 7.28
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:2) 82.3% 83.0% 80.7% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 9.8% 7.7% 11.3% 0.68× 13.03
Wrexham (0:2) 7.9% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:3) 92.1% 92.7% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.9% 2.4% 4.8% 0.50× 41.92
Wrexham (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 42.01
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:4) 97.0% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.0% 1.2% 2.4% 0.51× 81.68
Wrexham (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.11× 81.79
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (1:0) 53.5% 54.1% 70.9% 0.76× 1.85
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1:0) 28.7% 25.1% 11.7% 2.14× 3.98
Draw (1:0) 17.8% 17.1% 17.4% 0.98× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham (2:0) 71.3% 76.4% 88.3% 0.87× 1.31
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2:0) 14.9% 10.3% 3.2% 3.20× 9.69
Draw (2:0) 13.8% 10.3% 8.6% 1.20× 9.70
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 53.8% 50.1% — — 2.00
1st half highest scoring 26.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 19.7% 18.9% — — 5.29
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede 90.8% 92.8% 69.5% 1.34× 1.08
Wrexham clean sheet 9.2% 7.2% 30.5% 0.24× 13.91
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede in 1st half 61.5% 63.1% — — 1.59
Wrexham clean sheet in 1st half 38.5% 36.9% — — 2.71
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham to concede in 2nd half 76.1% 82.2% — — 1.22
Wrexham clean sheet in 2nd half 23.9% 17.8% — — 5.63
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 6.5 corners 77.1% 76.5% — — 1.31
Wrexham over 2.5 corners 74.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
Wrexham under 5.5 corners 67.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
Wrexham over 3.5 corners 59.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
Wrexham under 4.5 corners 54.8% 52.6% — — 1.90
Wrexham over 4.5 corners 45.2% 47.4% — — 2.11
Wrexham under 3.5 corners 40.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
Wrexham over 5.5 corners 32.8% 33.3% — — 3.00
Wrexham under 2.5 corners 25.7% 28.1% — — 3.56
Wrexham over 6.5 corners 22.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham over 0.5 goals 86.5% 87.3% 77.6% 1.12× 1.15
Wrexham under 3.5 goals 85.6% 87.3% 94.8% 0.92× 1.15
Wrexham under 2.5 goals 67.5% 67.9% 83.9% 0.81× 1.47
Wrexham over 1.5 goals 59.5% 58.7% 40.6% 1.44× 1.71
Wrexham under 1.5 goals 40.5% 41.3% 59.4% 0.70× 2.42
Wrexham over 2.5 goals 32.5% 32.1% 16.1% 1.99× 3.12
Wrexham over 3.5 goals 14.4% 12.7% 5.2% 2.46× 7.85
Wrexham under 0.5 goals 13.5% 12.7% 22.4% 0.57× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham under 1.5 in 1st half 78.6% 76.6% — — 1.31
Wrexham over 0.5 in 1st half 57.8% 56.2% — — 1.78
Wrexham under 0.5 in 1st half 42.2% 43.8% — — 2.29
Wrexham over 1.5 in 1st half 21.4% 23.4% — — 4.27
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham scores more in 2nd half 42.1% 41.6% — — 2.40
Wrexham scores equally in both 30.4% 33.2% — — 3.01
Wrexham scores more in 1st half 27.5% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (home no bet) 69.1% 64.2% 51.3% 1.25× 1.56
Draw (home no bet) 30.9% 35.8% 48.7% 0.73× 2.80
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham even goals 50.9% 50.7% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Wrexham odd goals 49.1% 49.3% 49.5% 0.99× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 16.4% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 0-1 15.4% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-0 13.9% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 1-1 13.5% 11.0% — — 9.09
Any other HT score 12.5% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 0-2 7.4% 6.9% — — 14.54
HT 1-2 6.4% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 2-0 6.0% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 2-1 5.8% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 2-2 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 27.7% 27.3% — — 3.66
Wrexham at HT / Wrexham at FT 20.0% 21.5% — — 4.65
Draw at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.7% 6.1% — — 16.42
Draw at HT / Wrexham at FT 9.4% 6.1% — — 16.42
Wrexham at HT / Draw at FT 6.0% 6.1% — — 16.52
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% — — 16.54
Wrexham at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 5.0% 6.0% — — 16.55
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Wrexham at FT 3.1% 3.5% — — 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score last 53.3% 52.2% — — 1.92
Wrexham to score last 44.8% 40.1% — — 2.49
No goal scored 2.0% 4.3% — — 23.12
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 98.0% 95.6% — — 1.05
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time 68.0% 69.4% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 66.9% 69.3% — — 1.44
Wrexham to lead by 1 at any time 57.1% 54.9% — — 1.82
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time 40.0% 34.9% — — 2.86
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 31.9% 29.7% — — 3.37
Wrexham to lead by 2 at any time 28.3% 25.3% — — 3.95
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time 20.0% 14.9% — — 6.72
Wrexham to lead by 3 at any time 11.9% 10.6% — — 9.44
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham most corners 59.1% 55.6% — — 1.80
Wolverhampton Wanderers most corners 29.7% 31.1% — — 3.21
Corners level 11.2% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 78.6% 78.7% 72.8% 1.08× 1.27
1-5 goals 70.3% 72.3% 88.8% 0.81× 1.38
2-5 goals 66.3% 68.8% 70.2% 0.98× 1.45
3-6 goals 65.9% 68.8% 47.2% 1.46× 1.45
3-5 goals 53.6% 53.2% 44.5% 1.19× 1.88
1-4 goals 53.4% 53.2% 83.3% 0.64× 1.88
2-4 goals 49.4% 48.4% 64.7% 0.75× 2.06
4-6 goals 48.4% 48.4% 22.4% 2.16× 2.06
3-4 goals 36.7% 39.2% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
4-5 goals 36.1% 39.2% 19.8% 1.98× 2.55
1-3 goals 34.2% 35.2% 69.1% 0.51× 2.84
2-3 goals 30.2% 35.2% 50.5% 0.70× 2.84
5-6 goals 29.2% 30.2% 8.2% 3.70× 3.31
1-2 goals 16.7% 18.8% 44.4% 0.42× 5.31
7+ goals 15.4% 18.8% 1.4% 13.84× 5.31
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers never behind 40.9% 48.6% — — 2.06
Wrexham never behind 30.0% 36.2% — — 2.77
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.6% 50.9% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.4% 49.1% 50.6% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.6% 51.7% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 48.4% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.8% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.2% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 98.0% 95.4% 92.7% 1.03× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 74.1% 1.25× 1.08
Over 2.5 goals 81.3% 82.3% 48.4% 1.70× 1.22
Under 5.5 goals 72.2% 72.5% 96.0% 0.76× 1.38
Over 3.5 goals 63.8% 61.7% 23.7% 2.60× 1.62
Under 4.5 goals 55.4% 58.6% 90.6% 0.65× 1.71
Over 4.5 goals 44.6% 41.4% 9.4% 4.39× 2.42
Under 3.5 goals 36.2% 38.3% 76.3% 0.50× 2.61
Over 5.5 goals 27.8% 27.5% 4.0% 6.89× 3.63
Under 2.5 goals 18.7% 17.7% 51.6% 0.34× 5.65
Under 1.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 25.9% 0.30× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 2.0% 4.6% 7.3% 0.63× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 93.2% 92.4% 65.1% 1.42× 1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 82.4% 81.1% 98.6% 0.82× 1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 77.4% 75.9% 31.5% 2.41× 1.32
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 66.6% 67.5% 95.8% 0.70× 1.48
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 55.2% 55.8% 11.0% 5.07× 1.79
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 44.8% 44.2% 89.0% 0.50× 2.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 33.4% 32.5% 4.2% 7.70× 3.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 22.6% 24.1% 68.5% 0.35× 4.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 17.6% 18.9% 1.4% 13.55× 5.29
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 6.8% 7.6% 34.9% 0.22× 13.19
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 83.6% 85.8% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half 72.6% 71.4% — — 1.40
Over 1.5 in 1st half 54.3% 53.8% — — 1.86
Under 1.5 in 1st half 45.7% 46.2% — — 2.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half 27.4% 28.6% — — 3.49
Under 0.5 in 1st half 16.4% 14.2% — — 7.03
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 92.1% 90.3% — — 1.11
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 73.0% 77.8% — — 1.29
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 27.0% 22.2% — — 4.51
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 7.9% 9.7% — — 10.34
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to score in both halves 60.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to score in both halves 53.2% 55.8% — — 1.79
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score in both halves 46.8% 44.2% — — 2.26
Wrexham to score in both halves 39.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 79.3% 68.2% 54.4% 1.25× 1.47
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers scores 11.5% 11.0% 15.2% 0.73× 9.07
Only Wrexham scores 7.3% 7.1% 23.3% 0.31× 14.01
Neither team scores 2.0% 4.6% 7.3% 0.63× 21.64
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 27.8% 24.9% 4.0% 6.23× 4.02
Exactly 4 goals 19.2% 17.5% 14.4% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 17.5% 17.5% 24.8% 0.70× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 16.9% 17.5% 5.5% 3.16× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 12.7% 12.1% 25.7% 0.47× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 4.0% 4.5% 18.7% 0.24× 22.34
Exactly 0 goals 2.0% 4.5% 7.3% 0.61× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 29.3% 28.7% — — 3.49
3+ goals in 1st half 27.4% 28.6% — — 3.49
2 goals in 1st half 27.0% 28.6% — — 3.49
No goals in 1st half 16.4% 15.7% — — 6.37
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 73.0% 70.4% — — 1.42
1 goal in 2nd half 19.2% 16.8% — — 5.95
No goals in 2nd half 7.9% 9.8% — — 10.19
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to win both halves 90.6% 94.1% — — 1.06
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win both halves 84.2% 83.6% — — 1.20
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win both halves 15.8% 16.4% — — 6.08
Wrexham to win both halves 9.4% 5.9% — — 16.98
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win either half 63.6% 65.0% — — 1.54
Wrexham to win either half 51.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
Wrexham to win neither half 48.5% 45.7% — — 2.19
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win neither half 36.4% 35.0% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wrexham not to win to nil 92.7% 92.1% 76.7% 1.20× 1.09
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win to nil 88.5% 88.1% 84.8% 1.04× 1.14
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win to nil 11.5% 11.9% 15.2% 0.78× 8.42
Wrexham to win to nil 7.3% 7.9% 23.3% 0.34× 12.65
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 20.8% 24.1% 27.6% 0.87× 4.15
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 1 17.8% 17.0% 17.4% 0.98× 5.87
Wrexham by 1 14.9% 11.8% 24.2% 0.49× 8.50
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 3+ 14.9% 11.8% 3.2% 3.64× 8.50
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 2 13.8% 11.8% 8.6% 1.37× 8.50
Wrexham by 2 9.8% 7.2% 11.3% 0.64× 13.90
Wrexham by 3+ 7.9% 7.2% 8.1% 0.89× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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