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WSG Swarovski Tirol v TSV Hartberg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · AUT-Bundesliga · 2627

AUT-Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
WSG Swarovski Tirol win
36.4%
model 36.2%
Draw
27.2%
model 27.7%
TSV Hartberg win
36.4%
model 36.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.2%
  2. 2-1 8.3%
  3. 1-2 8.3%
  4. 1-0 7.5%
  5. 0-1 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.552.5% Under 2.547.5%
BTTS yes57.5% BTTS no42.5%
WSG Swarovski Tirol 1+75.1% WSG Swarovski Tirol 2+40.4%
TSV Hartberg 1+75.0% TSV Hartberg 2+40.4%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
TSV Hartberg (+1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 77%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 13561 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
WSG Swarovski Tirol (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 85%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 4395 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out WSG Swarovski Tirol.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0106 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

WSG Swarovski Tirol have an estimated 36.4% win probability, against 36.4% for TSV Hartberg and 27.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for WSG Swarovski Tirol and 1.39 for TSV Hartberg.

Why WSG Swarovski Tirol

Nothing in the data singles out WSG Swarovski Tirol.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.39 to 1.39. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why TSV Hartberg can win

TSV Hartberg carry the stronger rating, 1488 Elo against 1435. They have had 14 days' rest to WSG Swarovski Tirol's 11.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for WSG Swarovski Tirol, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for TSV Hartberg, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

WSG Swarovski Tirol: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. TSV Hartberg: 42% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 20.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

WSG Swarovski Tirol are the model's most likely outcome at 36.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.39–1.39 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.28–1.39 1-1 14% 50% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win 36.2% 37.5% 43.6% 0.86× 2.67
TSV Hartberg to win 36.1% 37.5% 31.4% 1.19× 2.67
Draw 27.7% 27.3% 25.2% 1.08× 3.66
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & both teams score 20.3% 21.5% 18.1% 1.19× 4.65
TSV Hartberg & both teams score 18.6% 18.2% 16.9% 1.08× 5.49
WSG Swarovski Tirol & both teams score 18.6% 18.2% 21.2% 0.86× 5.49
TSV Hartberg & not both score 17.6% 18.2% 14.8% 1.23× 5.49
WSG Swarovski Tirol & not both score 17.6% 18.2% 22.6% 0.81× 5.49
Draw & not both score 7.4% 7.7% 7.4% 1.04× 13.04
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol & over 1.5 28.7% 26.5% 34.8% 0.76× 3.78
TSV Hartberg & over 1.5 28.6% 26.5% 25.5% 1.04× 3.78
WSG Swarovski Tirol & under 3.5 24.6% 21.8% 30.5% 0.72× 4.59
TSV Hartberg & under 3.5 24.6% 21.8% 22.1% 0.99× 4.59
WSG Swarovski Tirol & over 2.5 22.7% 21.8% 27.6% 0.79× 4.59
TSV Hartberg & over 2.5 22.6% 21.8% 20.0% 1.09× 4.59
Draw & over 1.5 20.3% 21.8% 18.1% 1.21× 4.59
Draw & under 2.5 20.5% 21.8% 19.5% 1.12× 4.59
Draw & under 3.5 20.5% 21.8% 19.5% 1.12× 4.59
WSG Swarovski Tirol & under 2.5 13.5% 12.5% 16.2% 0.77× 8.03
WSG Swarovski Tirol & over 3.5 11.6% 12.5% 13.3% 0.93× 8.03
TSV Hartberg & under 2.5 13.5% 12.5% 11.7% 1.07× 8.03
TSV Hartberg & over 3.5 11.5% 12.5% 9.5% 1.31× 8.03
WSG Swarovski Tirol & under 1.5 7.5% 7.6% 9.0% 0.84× 13.17
Draw & under 1.5 7.4% 7.6% 7.4% 1.03× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 7.2% 7.6% 6.0% 1.28× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 7.2% 7.6% 6.0% 1.28× 13.17
TSV Hartberg & under 1.5 7.5% 7.6% 6.2% 1.23× 13.17
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (1UP) 53.9% 53.3% 1.88
TSV Hartberg (1UP) 53.9% 53.3% 1.88
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (2UP) 36.2% 37.5% 2.67
TSV Hartberg (2UP) 36.1% 37.5% 2.67
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.8% 36.8% 2.72
TSV Hartberg to win 2nd half 33.3% 32.4% 3.09
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win 2nd half 30.9% 32.4% 3.09
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg (+2.5) 93.7% 92.3% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
TSV Hartberg (+1.5) 82.8% 83.1% 76.9% 1.08× 1.20
TSV Hartberg (+0.5) 63.8% 62.8% 56.4% 1.11× 1.59
WSG Swarovski Tirol (+0.5) 63.9% 62.8% 68.6% 0.92× 1.59
WSG Swarovski Tirol (-0.5) 36.2% 37.2% 43.6% 0.85× 2.69
TSV Hartberg (-0.5) 36.1% 37.2% 31.4% 1.18× 2.69
WSG Swarovski Tirol (-1.5) 17.2% 16.9% 23.1% 0.73× 5.92
WSG Swarovski Tirol (-2.5) 6.3% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 12.97
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg to concede 75.1% 78.6% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
TSV Hartberg clean sheet 24.9% 21.4% 21.9% 0.98× 4.67
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg clean sheet in 1st half 55.0% 58.0% 1.73
TSV Hartberg to concede in 1st half 45.0% 42.0% 2.38
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg under 6.5 corners 87.4% 85.2% 1.17
TSV Hartberg under 5.5 corners 78.7% 75.9% 1.32
TSV Hartberg over 2.5 corners 68.3% 67.5% 1.48
TSV Hartberg under 4.5 corners 66.1% 67.5% 1.48
TSV Hartberg over 3.5 corners 50.1% 53.1% 1.89
TSV Hartberg under 3.5 corners 49.9% 46.9% 2.13
TSV Hartberg over 4.5 corners 33.9% 32.5% 3.08
TSV Hartberg under 2.5 corners 31.7% 32.5% 3.08
TSV Hartberg over 5.5 corners 21.3% 24.1% 4.16
TSV Hartberg over 6.5 corners 12.6% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg under 3.5 goals 94.8% 92.1% 96.9% 0.95× 1.09
TSV Hartberg under 2.5 goals 83.6% 82.4% 86.9% 0.95× 1.21
TSV Hartberg over 0.5 goals 75.0% 76.4% 70.2% 1.09× 1.31
TSV Hartberg under 1.5 goals 59.6% 58.5% 64.8% 0.90× 1.71
TSV Hartberg over 1.5 goals 40.4% 41.5% 35.2% 1.18× 2.41
TSV Hartberg under 0.5 goals 25.0% 23.6% 29.8% 0.79× 4.24
TSV Hartberg over 2.5 goals 16.4% 17.6% 13.1% 1.34× 5.70
TSV Hartberg over 3.5 goals 5.2% 7.9% 3.1% 2.56× 12.62
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg under 1.5 in 1st half 89.3% 87.1% 1.15
TSV Hartberg under 0.5 in 1st half 57.4% 57.2% 1.75
TSV Hartberg over 0.5 in 1st half 42.6% 42.8% 2.33
TSV Hartberg over 1.5 in 1st half 10.7% 12.9% 7.73
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (away no bet) 56.6% 58.5% 63.3% 0.92× 1.71
Draw (away no bet) 43.4% 41.5% 36.7% 1.13× 2.41
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg even goals 53.1% 53.5% 53.6% 1.00× 1.87
TSV Hartberg odd goals 46.9% 46.5% 46.4% 1.00× 2.15
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.5% 82.7% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.5% 17.3% 5.77
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.4% 66.4% 1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.6% 33.6% 2.98
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.3% 58.1% 1.72
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score 2+ in a row 31.6% 32.3% 3.10
TSV Hartberg to score 2+ in a row 31.5% 32.3% 3.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.6% 17.4% 5.75
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score 3+ in a row 10.0% 7.9% 12.71
TSV Hartberg to score 3+ in a row 10.0% 7.9% 12.71
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (+3.5) 94.7% 89.6% 1.12
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (+2.5) 91.1% 89.6% 1.12
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (+1.5) 86.0% 84.5% 1.18
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (-1.5) 60.7% 61.9% 1.62
TSV Hartberg corners (+3.5) 59.8% 57.1% 1.75
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (-2.5) 50.3% 52.4% 1.91
TSV Hartberg corners (+2.5) 49.7% 47.6% 2.10
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (-3.5) 40.2% 42.9% 2.33
TSV Hartberg corners (+1.5) 39.3% 38.1% 2.62
TSV Hartberg corners (-1.5) 14.0% 15.5% 6.45
TSV Hartberg corners (-2.5) 8.9% 10.4% 9.59
TSV Hartberg corners (-3.5) 5.3% 10.4% 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 35.5% 33.7% 2.97
0-8 corners 35.2% 33.7% 2.97
9-11 corners 29.3% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 74.4% 72.6% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 72.6% 72.6% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 64.8% 63.4% 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 64.5% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 55.2% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 54.7% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 45.3% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 44.8% 42.2% 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 35.5% 36.6% 2.73
Under 8.5 corners 35.2% 36.6% 2.73
Over 12.5 corners 27.4% 27.4% 3.66
Under 7.5 corners 25.6% 27.4% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.2% 11.2% 12.4% 0.91× 8.90
0-0 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.48
0-1 7.5% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.48
0-2 6.0% 7.4% 5.7% 1.30× 13.49
1-0 7.5% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.48
1-2 8.3% 7.4% 7.9% 0.94× 13.48
2-0 6.0% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.49
2-1 8.3% 7.4% 10.5% 0.71× 13.48
2-2 5.8% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.49
0-3 2.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.10
0-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.61× 58.11
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.10
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.81× 58.11
2-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.10
2-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.61× 58.11
3-0 2.8% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.10
3-1 3.9% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.10
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.10
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.11
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.11
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.81× 58.11
4-1 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.11
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.11
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 7.23× 58.11
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.23× 58.11
Any other score 2.7% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.10
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol leading at HT (DNB) 52.4% 55.9% 1.79
TSV Hartberg leading at HT (DNB) 47.6% 44.1% 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol or TSV Hartberg (12) 72.3% 72.7% 74.8% 0.97× 1.38
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw (1X) 63.9% 62.5% 68.6% 0.91× 1.60
TSV Hartberg or draw (X2) 63.8% 62.5% 56.4% 1.11× 1.60
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw at HT 73.0% 71.2% 1.40
TSV Hartberg or draw at HT 70.3% 71.1% 1.41
WSG Swarovski Tirol or TSV Hartberg at HT 56.6% 57.2% 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw (1UP) 63.9% 69.8% 1.43
TSV Hartberg or draw (1UP) 63.8% 69.8% 1.43
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg or draw in 2nd half 69.1% 67.6% 1.48
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw in 2nd half 66.7% 67.6% 1.48
WSG Swarovski Tirol or TSV Hartberg in 2nd half 64.2% 63.2% 1.58
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.4% 60.1% 1.66
Neither half drawn 37.6% 39.9% 2.51
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (DNB) 50.0% 51.5% 58.1% 0.89× 1.94
TSV Hartberg (DNB) 50.0% 48.5% 41.9% 1.16× 2.06
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score first 46.3% 46.0% 2.17
TSV Hartberg to score first 46.3% 46.0% 2.17
No goal scored 7.4% 6.3% 15.88
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.5% 55.7% 55.7% 1.00× 1.80
Not both teams to score 42.5% 44.3% 44.3% 1.00× 2.26
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.3% 41.6% 43.6% 0.96× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 34.3% 34.0% 34.8% 0.98× 2.94
Both score & under 2.5 13.2% 11.9% 12.4% 0.96× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 8.2% 8.5% 9.8% 0.87× 11.81
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.7% 83.1% 86.9% 0.96× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 16.3% 16.9% 13.1% 1.29× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.7% 68.1% 1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.3% 31.9% 3.14
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.3% 56.7% 1.76
Both score 2nd half only 25.4% 25.8% 3.87
Both score 1st half only 13.4% 11.9% 8.39
Both score in both halves 5.9% 7.1% 14.11
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.6% 82.6% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 19.4% 17.4% 5.76
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.5% 57.5% 1.74
A half without a goal 44.5% 42.5% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.4% 46.6% 49.8% 0.94× 2.15
4-6 goals 27.9% 27.3% 26.7% 1.02× 3.66
0-1 goals 22.3% 23.3% 22.1% 1.05× 4.29
7+ goals 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.05× 50.24
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg to score exactly 1 34.6% 32.5% 35.2% 0.92× 3.08
TSV Hartberg to score exactly 0 25.0% 23.1% 29.8% 0.78× 4.32
TSV Hartberg to score exactly 2 24.0% 23.1% 22.4% 1.03× 4.32
TSV Hartberg to score 3+ 16.4% 18.4% 13.1% 1.41× 5.43
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score exactly 1 34.6% 32.1% 34.8% 0.92× 3.11
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score exactly 0 24.9% 22.9% 21.9% 1.04× 4.37
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score exactly 2 24.1% 22.9% 25.5% 0.90× 4.37
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score 3+ 16.4% 18.3% 18.3% 1.00× 5.45
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.4% 42.8% 2.34
WSG Swarovski Tirol leading at HT 29.7% 28.9% 3.46
TSV Hartberg leading at HT 27.0% 28.8% 3.48
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol -1: 2 63.8% 61.9% 1.62
WSG Swarovski Tirol -1: X 19.0% 17.8% 5.60
WSG Swarovski Tirol -1: 1 17.2% 17.8% 5.61
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg (0:1) 63.8% 60.3% 56.4% 1.07× 1.66
Draw (0:1) 19.0% 18.2% 20.7% 0.88× 5.51
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:1) 17.2% 18.2% 23.1% 0.79× 5.51
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg (0:2) 82.8% 83.0% 76.9% 1.08× 1.20
Draw (0:2) 10.9% 11.4% 14.0% 0.81× 8.79
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:2) 6.3% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 12.96
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg (0:3) 93.7% 92.6% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.4% 2.6% 6.2% 0.41× 38.94
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:3) 1.9% 2.6% 3.3% 0.77× 38.98
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg (0:4) 98.1% 97.7% 96.7% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 0.85× 70.57
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:4) 0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 0.74× 70.61
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (1:0) 63.9% 64.5% 68.6% 0.94× 1.55
Draw (1:0) 19.0% 17.5% 16.4% 1.07× 5.70
TSV Hartberg (1:0) 17.2% 17.5% 15.2% 1.15× 5.70
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (2:0) 82.8% 83.6% 84.8% 0.99× 1.20
Draw (2:0) 10.9% 11.5% 10.2% 1.13× 8.67
TSV Hartberg (2:0) 6.3% 6.7% 5.2% 1.27× 14.99
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.4% 48.6% 2.06
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 26.3% 26.2% 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to concede 75.0% 77.1% 70.2% 1.10× 1.30
WSG Swarovski Tirol clean sheet 25.0% 22.9% 29.8% 0.77× 4.36
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol clean sheet in 1st half 57.4% 57.0% 1.75
WSG Swarovski Tirol to concede in 1st half 42.6% 43.0% 2.33
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 2.5 corners 90.8% 89.3% 1.12
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 3.5 corners 81.7% 80.9% 1.24
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 4.5 corners 70.3% 71.9% 1.39
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 5.5 corners 57.7% 57.5% 1.74
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 6.5 corners 54.6% 52.8% 1.89
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 6.5 corners 45.4% 47.2% 2.12
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 5.5 corners 42.3% 42.5% 2.35
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 4.5 corners 29.7% 28.1% 3.56
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 3.5 corners 18.3% 19.1% 5.25
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 2.5 corners 9.2% 10.7% 9.33
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 3.5 goals 94.8% 92.3% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 2.5 goals 83.6% 82.2% 81.7% 1.01× 1.22
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 0.5 goals 75.1% 77.9% 78.1% 1.00× 1.28
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 1.5 goals 59.6% 57.7% 56.4% 1.02× 1.73
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 1.5 goals 40.4% 42.3% 43.6% 0.97× 2.36
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 0.5 goals 24.9% 22.1% 21.9% 1.01× 4.53
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 2.5 goals 16.4% 17.8% 18.3% 0.97× 5.61
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 3.5 goals 5.2% 7.7% 7.6% 1.01× 13.05
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 1.5 in 1st half 87.9% 87.3% 1.15
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 0.5 in 1st half 55.0% 58.0% 1.72
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 0.5 in 1st half 45.0% 42.0% 2.38
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 1.5 in 1st half 12.1% 12.7% 7.88
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg (home no bet) 56.6% 56.1% 55.5% 1.01× 1.78
Draw (home no bet) 43.4% 43.9% 44.5% 0.99× 2.28
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol even goals 53.1% 50.9% 52.1% 0.98× 1.96
WSG Swarovski Tirol odd goals 46.9% 49.1% 47.9% 1.03× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.8% 32.2% 3.11
HT 1-0 18.7% 20.1% 4.99
HT 0-1 17.3% 20.0% 4.99
HT 1-1 10.7% 10.9% 9.16
HT 2-0 5.6% 8.0% 12.48
HT 0-2 4.9% 2.5% 40.33
Any other HT score 4.1% 2.5% 40.36
HT 2-1 3.1% 2.5% 40.41
HT 1-2 2.9% 2.5% 40.42
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.5% 40.51
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol at HT / WSG Swarovski Tirol at FT 21.2% 20.5% 4.88
TSV Hartberg at HT / TSV Hartberg at FT 19.7% 17.2% 5.81
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.8% 17.2% 5.82
Draw at HT / TSV Hartberg at FT 13.8% 12.2% 8.20
Draw at HT / WSG Swarovski Tirol at FT 12.8% 12.2% 8.20
WSG Swarovski Tirol at HT / Draw at FT 5.8% 6.4% 15.58
TSV Hartberg at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.4% 15.60
WSG Swarovski Tirol at HT / TSV Hartberg at FT 2.7% 3.7% 27.32
TSV Hartberg at HT / WSG Swarovski Tirol at FT 2.2% 3.7% 27.33
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score last 46.3% 46.3% 2.16
TSV Hartberg to score last 46.3% 46.3% 2.16
No goal scored 7.4% 6.3% 15.88
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.6% 93.6% 1.07
WSG Swarovski Tirol to lead by 1 at any time 53.9% 50.9% 1.97
TSV Hartberg to lead by 1 at any time 53.9% 50.9% 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.7% 46.8% 2.14
WSG Swarovski Tirol to lead by 2 at any time 23.5% 21.4% 4.68
TSV Hartberg to lead by 2 at any time 23.4% 21.4% 4.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.3% 17.3% 5.79
WSG Swarovski Tirol to lead by 3 at any time 8.1% 7.6% 13.15
TSV Hartberg to lead by 3 at any time 8.1% 7.6% 13.15
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol most corners 70.5% 70.6% 1.42
TSV Hartberg most corners 20.9% 25.9% 3.86
Corners level 8.6% 8.5% 11.80
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.3% 87.1% 86.2% 1.01× 1.15
1-4 goals 77.7% 77.9% 79.3% 0.98× 1.28
2-6 goals 75.3% 77.9% 76.2% 1.02× 1.28
2-5 goals 71.3% 72.1% 71.4% 1.01× 1.39
1-3 goals 62.3% 62.7% 64.5% 0.97× 1.60
2-4 goals 62.8% 62.7% 64.5% 0.97× 1.60
3-6 goals 50.2% 52.9% 51.4% 1.03× 1.89
2-3 goals 47.4% 47.4% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
3-5 goals 46.2% 47.4% 46.7% 1.01× 2.11
1-2 goals 40.1% 43.7% 39.8% 1.10× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.6% 39.0% 39.8% 0.98× 2.56
4-6 goals 27.9% 28.5% 26.7% 1.07× 3.50
4-5 goals 24.0% 23.8% 21.9% 1.09× 4.20
5-6 goals 12.5% 13.5% 11.9% 1.13× 7.40
7+ goals 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.18× 44.58
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol never behind 38.7% 47.4% 2.11
TSV Hartberg never behind 38.7% 47.4% 2.11
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 52.5% 50.0% 52.1% 0.96× 2.00
Odd number of goals 47.5% 50.0% 47.9% 1.04× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.4% 55.1% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 44.6% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.7% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.3% 48.5% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.6% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.1% 87.7% 86.4% 1.01× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 77.7% 77.0% 77.9% 0.99× 1.30
Under 3.5 goals 69.7% 67.5% 71.7% 0.94× 1.48
Over 2.5 goals 52.5% 52.1% 53.1% 0.98× 1.92
Under 2.5 goals 47.5% 47.9% 46.9% 1.02× 2.09
Over 3.5 goals 30.3% 32.5% 28.3% 1.15× 3.08
Under 1.5 goals 22.3% 23.0% 22.1% 1.04× 4.35
Over 4.5 goals 14.9% 12.3% 13.6% 0.91× 8.14
Under 0.5 goals 7.4% 7.7% 7.4% 1.05× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 6.7% 1.16× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.6% 97.3% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.1% 92.0% 92.8% 0.99× 1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.4% 81.3% 84.1% 0.97× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.1% 71.7% 70.6% 1.02× 1.40
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 61.1% 62.0% 62.3% 0.99× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 38.9% 38.0% 37.7% 1.01× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.9% 28.3% 29.4% 0.96× 3.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.6% 18.7% 15.9% 1.17× 5.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.9% 8.0% 7.2% 1.11× 12.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.4% 2.7% 2.0% 1.36× 36.69
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.0% 88.4% 1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.2% 67.6% 1.48
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.8% 67.6% 1.48
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.2% 32.4% 3.09
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.8% 32.4% 3.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.0% 11.6% 8.61
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.9% 79.9% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.7% 79.8% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.7% 50.2% 1.99
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.3% 49.8% 2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.3% 20.2% 4.96
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.1% 20.1% 4.97
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg not to score in both halves 75.9% 76.3% 1.31
WSG Swarovski Tirol not to score in both halves 75.4% 76.2% 1.31
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score in both halves 24.6% 23.8% 4.21
TSV Hartberg to score in both halves 24.1% 23.7% 4.21
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.5% 57.9% 55.7% 1.04× 1.73
Only WSG Swarovski Tirol scores 17.6% 17.1% 22.6% 0.76× 5.83
Only TSV Hartberg scores 17.6% 17.1% 14.8% 1.16× 5.83
Neither team scores 7.4% 7.2% 7.4% 0.97× 13.96
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.2% 25.0% 25.0% 1.00× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.3% 25.0% 0.89× 4.48
Exactly 4 goals 15.4% 17.6% 15.0% 1.17× 5.69
Exactly 1 goals 15.0% 12.3% 15.0% 0.82× 8.12
Exactly 5 goals 8.6% 7.8% 7.1% 1.09× 12.88
Exactly 0 goals 7.4% 7.8% 7.4% 1.05× 12.89
6 or more goals 6.3% 7.8% 6.7% 1.16× 12.89
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.7% 50.1% 2.00
1 goal in 2nd half 31.2% 34.3% 2.92
No goals in 2nd half 20.1% 20.1% 4.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
TSV Hartberg not to win both halves 90.9% 92.2% 1.08
WSG Swarovski Tirol not to win both halves 90.6% 92.2% 1.08
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win both halves 9.4% 7.8% 12.84
TSV Hartberg to win both halves 9.1% 7.8% 12.85
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win either half 51.2% 51.1% 1.96
TSV Hartberg to win either half 51.1% 51.1% 1.96
TSV Hartberg to win neither half 48.9% 48.9% 2.04
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win neither half 48.8% 48.9% 2.04
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol not to win to nil 82.4% 82.6% 77.4% 1.07× 1.21
TSV Hartberg not to win to nil 82.4% 82.6% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win to nil 17.6% 17.4% 22.6% 0.77× 5.76
TSV Hartberg to win to nil 17.6% 17.4% 14.8% 1.18× 5.76
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.7% 27.4% 25.2% 1.08× 3.65
WSG Swarovski Tirol by 1 19.0% 17.3% 20.7% 0.84× 5.78
TSV Hartberg by 1 19.0% 17.3% 16.4% 1.05× 5.78
WSG Swarovski Tirol by 2 10.9% 11.8% 14.0% 0.84× 8.46
TSV Hartberg by 2 10.9% 11.8% 10.2% 1.15× 8.46
WSG Swarovski Tirol by 3+ 6.3% 7.3% 9.3% 0.79× 13.66
TSV Hartberg by 3+ 6.3% 7.3% 5.2% 1.40× 13.66
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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