Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tonglianglong — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 October 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627
CHN-Super League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.3%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-0 8.9%
- 2-0 8.3%
- 1-2 6.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | Under 2.5 | 43.5% |
| BTTS yes | 57.7% | BTTS no | 42.3% |
| Yunnan Yukun 1+ | 83.1% | Yunnan Yukun 2+ | 53.0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong 1+ | 69.0% | Chongqing Tonglianglong 2+ | 32.7% |
Expected goals 1.78 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Yunnan Yukun carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1458.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0120 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Yunnan Yukun have an estimated 53.7% win probability, against 23.2% for Chongqing Tonglianglong and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.78 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.17 for Chongqing Tonglianglong.
Why Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1458.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Chongqing Tonglianglong can win
Nothing in the data singles out Chongqing Tonglianglong.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Yunnan Yukun, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Chongqing Tonglianglong, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Yunnan Yukun: 52% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Chongqing Tonglianglong: 46% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Yunnan Yukun are the model's most likely outcome at 53.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.71–1.15 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 56% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.