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Yunnan Yukun v Wuhan Three Towns — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627

CHN-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Yunnan Yukun win
51.2%
model 52.7%
Draw
22.1%
model 21.0%
Wuhan Three Towns win
26.7%
model 26.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 8.9%
  2. 1-1 8.4%
  3. 2-2 6.8%
  4. 3-1 6.5%
  5. 1-2 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.571.8% Under 2.528.2%
BTTS yes69.8% BTTS no30.2%
Yunnan Yukun 1+88.9% Yunnan Yukun 2+64.5%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+78.2% Wuhan Three Towns 2+45.0%

Expected goals 2.20 – 1.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Over 3.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 41%
52.8% fair odds 1.89
strong signal · 1367 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Yunnan Yukun not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Yunnan Yukun carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1425.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0107 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Yunnan Yukun have an estimated 51.2% win probability, against 26.7% for Wuhan Three Towns and 22.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.20 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.52 for Wuhan Three Towns.

Why Yunnan Yukun

Yunnan Yukun carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1425.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Wuhan Three Towns can win

Nothing in the data singles out Wuhan Three Towns.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Yunnan Yukun, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Wuhan Three Towns, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Yunnan Yukun: 52% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Wuhan Three Towns: 47% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Yunnan Yukun's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Yunnan Yukun are the model's most likely outcome at 51.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.9%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.20–1.52 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.37–1.64 2-1 8% 76% 73%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to win 53.7% 51.6% 46.0% 1.12× 1.94
Wuhan Three Towns to win 26.2% 27.9% 27.9% 1.00× 3.58
Draw 20.0% 24.5% 26.3% 0.93× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun & both teams score 36.5% 33.3% 22.9% 1.45× 3.00
Wuhan Three Towns & both teams score 18.9% 18.0% 18.4% 0.98× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.0% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.56
Yunnan Yukun & not both score 17.3% 18.0% 23.4% 0.77× 5.57
Wuhan Three Towns & not both score 7.3% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 12.00
Draw & not both score 2.1% 4.9% 4.3% 1.13× 20.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun & over 1.5 49.7% 45.1% 36.3% 1.24× 2.22
Yunnan Yukun & over 2.5 44.6% 40.3% 29.3% 1.38× 2.48
Yunnan Yukun & over 3.5 32.3% 30.8% 18.8% 1.63× 3.25
Wuhan Three Towns & over 1.5 23.5% 21.6% 23.6% 0.92× 4.63
Yunnan Yukun & under 3.5 21.5% 21.6% 27.4% 0.79× 4.63
Wuhan Three Towns & over 2.5 21.1% 21.6% 20.9% 1.04× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.0% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.55
Wuhan Three Towns & over 3.5 13.9% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.79
Wuhan Three Towns & under 3.5 12.3% 12.8% 15.9% 0.81× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 10.7% 12.8% 10.0% 1.29× 7.79
Draw & over 3.5 10.7% 12.8% 10.0% 1.29× 7.79
Yunnan Yukun & under 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 17.0% 0.47× 12.63
Draw & under 2.5 9.4% 7.9% 16.6% 0.48× 12.63
Draw & under 3.5 9.4% 7.9% 16.6% 0.48× 12.63
Wuhan Three Towns & under 2.5 5.2% 7.9% 7.3% 1.09× 12.63
Yunnan Yukun & under 1.5 4.0% 4.8% 10.0% 0.48× 20.82
Wuhan Three Towns & under 1.5 2.7% 4.8% 4.5% 1.06× 20.82
Draw & under 1.5 2.1% 4.8% 4.3% 1.11× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun (1UP) 71.9% 75.1% — — 1.33
Wuhan Three Towns (1UP) 49.8% 44.0% — — 2.27
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun (2UP) 53.7% 55.4% — — 1.80
Wuhan Three Towns (2UP) 26.2% 25.1% — — 3.98
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to win 2nd half 45.1% 44.9% — — 2.23
2nd half drawn 27.7% 26.1% — — 3.83
Wuhan Three Towns to win 2nd half 27.3% 26.1% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.1% 75.7% — — 1.32
Wuhan Three Towns over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.7% 60.3% — — 1.66
Wuhan Three Towns under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.3% 39.7% — — 2.52
Wuhan Three Towns over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.9% 24.3% — — 4.11
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.1% 74.5% — — 1.34
Yunnan Yukun under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.9% 63.0% — — 1.59
Yunnan Yukun over 1.5 in 2nd half 39.1% 37.0% — — 2.71
Yunnan Yukun under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.9% 25.5% — — 3.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns (+2.5) 82.1% 82.6% 89.3% 0.92× 1.21
Yunnan Yukun (+0.5) 73.8% 73.7% 72.1% 1.02× 1.36
Wuhan Three Towns (+1.5) 66.2% 68.7% 74.8% 0.92× 1.46
Yunnan Yukun (-0.5) 53.7% 52.4% 46.0% 1.14× 1.91
Wuhan Three Towns (+0.5) 46.3% 47.6% 54.0% 0.88× 2.10
Yunnan Yukun (-1.5) 33.8% 31.3% 25.2% 1.24× 3.19
Wuhan Three Towns (-0.5) 26.2% 26.3% 27.9% 0.94× 3.80
Yunnan Yukun (-2.5) 17.9% 17.4% 10.7% 1.64× 5.74
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns to concede 90.7% 91.6% 86.2% 1.06× 1.09
Wuhan Three Towns clean sheet 9.3% 8.4% 13.8% 0.61× 11.89
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns to concede in 1st half 63.9% 64.8% — — 1.54
Wuhan Three Towns clean sheet in 1st half 36.1% 35.2% — — 2.84
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns to concede in 2nd half 74.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Wuhan Three Towns clean sheet in 2nd half 25.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns under 6.5 corners 82.6% 81.4% — — 1.23
Wuhan Three Towns over 2.5 corners 75.6% 76.0% — — 1.32
Wuhan Three Towns under 5.5 corners 72.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Wuhan Three Towns over 3.5 corners 58.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
Wuhan Three Towns under 4.5 corners 58.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Wuhan Three Towns over 4.5 corners 42.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Wuhan Three Towns under 3.5 corners 41.3% 42.8% — — 2.34
Wuhan Three Towns over 5.5 corners 28.0% 28.4% — — 3.52
Wuhan Three Towns under 2.5 corners 24.4% 24.0% — — 4.17
Wuhan Three Towns over 6.5 corners 17.4% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns under 3.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
Wuhan Three Towns over 0.5 goals 80.7% 81.5% 72.6% 1.12× 1.23
Wuhan Three Towns under 2.5 goals 77.2% 76.2% 83.2% 0.92× 1.31
Wuhan Three Towns under 1.5 goals 51.1% 53.5% 61.0% 0.88× 1.87
Wuhan Three Towns over 1.5 goals 48.9% 46.5% 39.0% 1.19× 2.15
Wuhan Three Towns over 2.5 goals 22.8% 23.8% 16.8% 1.42× 4.21
Wuhan Three Towns under 0.5 goals 19.3% 18.5% 27.4% 0.67× 5.40
Wuhan Three Towns over 3.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 7.0% 1.09× 13.06
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns under 1.5 in 1st half 85.9% 89.2% — — 1.12
Wuhan Three Towns under 0.5 in 1st half 51.8% 55.8% — — 1.79
Wuhan Three Towns over 0.5 in 1st half 48.2% 44.2% — — 2.26
Wuhan Three Towns over 1.5 in 1st half 14.1% 10.8% — — 9.23
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns scores more in 2nd half 42.2% 43.6% — — 2.29
Wuhan Three Towns scores equally in both 34.1% 33.4% — — 3.00
Wuhan Three Towns scores more in 1st half 23.7% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun (away no bet) 72.8% 68.4% 63.6% 1.08× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 27.2% 31.6% 36.4% 0.87× 3.17
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns even goals 51.9% 52.6% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Wuhan Three Towns odd goals 48.1% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 66.2% 67.9% — — 1.47
Both halves over 1.5 goals 33.8% 32.1% — — 3.12
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 84.0% 79.0% — — 1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals 16.0% 21.0% — — 4.77
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 75.6% 75.0% — — 1.33
Yunnan Yukun to score 2+ in a row 56.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row 36.1% 36.5% — — 2.74
Wuhan Three Towns to score 2+ in a row 34.2% 29.0% — — 3.45
Yunnan Yukun to score 3+ in a row 26.7% 24.9% — — 4.01
Wuhan Three Towns to score 3+ in a row 10.7% 12.1% — — 8.26
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun corners (+3.5) 91.6% 89.6% — — 1.12
Yunnan Yukun corners (+2.5) 86.7% 84.5% — — 1.18
Yunnan Yukun corners (+1.5) 80.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Wuhan Three Towns corners (+3.5) 69.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Wuhan Three Towns corners (+2.5) 59.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
Yunnan Yukun corners (-1.5) 50.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
Wuhan Three Towns corners (+1.5) 49.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Yunnan Yukun corners (-2.5) 40.3% 42.8% — — 2.34
Yunnan Yukun corners (-3.5) 30.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
Wuhan Three Towns corners (-1.5) 20.0% 20.2% — — 4.94
Wuhan Three Towns corners (-2.5) 13.3% 15.5% — — 6.45
Wuhan Three Towns corners (-3.5) 8.4% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 34.9% 33.2% — — 3.01
0-8 corners 34.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 30.5% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 75.2% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 73.5% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 65.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 65.1% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 55.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 54.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 45.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 44.5% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 34.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 34.9% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 26.5% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 24.8% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 11.5% 11.5% 4.8% 2.41× 8.72
1-1 7.3% 7.4% 12.5% 0.59× 13.51
2-1 8.3% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
2-2 6.9% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
3-1 6.6% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
1-2 5.8% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
2-0 5.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.51
3-2 5.4% 7.4% 3.6% 2.04× 13.51
0-0 2.1% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
0-1 2.7% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.30
0-2 2.4% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.31
0-3 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.32
1-0 4.0% 1.7% 10.0% 0.17× 58.30
1-3 3.2% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.31
2-3 3.8% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.30
2-4 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.26× 58.31
3-0 4.0% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.30
3-3 3.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.30
3-4 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.31
4-0 2.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
4-1 3.9% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
4-2 3.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.30
4-3 1.8% 1.7% 0.7% 2.52× 58.31
4-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun (2nd half DNB) 62.3% 62.9% — — 1.59
Wuhan Three Towns (2nd half DNB) 37.7% 37.1% — — 2.70
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun leading at HT (DNB) 65.2% 73.3% — — 1.36
Wuhan Three Towns leading at HT (DNB) 34.8% 26.7% — — 3.75
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun or Wuhan Three Towns (12) 80.0% 75.5% 73.7% 1.03× 1.32
Yunnan Yukun or draw (1X) 73.8% 72.1% 72.1% 1.00× 1.39
Wuhan Three Towns or draw (X2) 46.3% 48.4% 54.0% 0.90× 2.07
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun or draw at HT 76.9% 79.6% — — 1.26
Yunnan Yukun or Wuhan Three Towns at HT 66.4% 67.1% — — 1.49
Wuhan Three Towns or draw at HT 56.7% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun or draw (1UP) 73.8% 79.7% — — 1.26
Wuhan Three Towns or draw (1UP) 49.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun or draw in 2nd half 72.7% 73.9% — — 1.35
Yunnan Yukun or Wuhan Three Towns in 2nd half 72.3% 73.9% — — 1.35
Wuhan Three Towns or draw in 2nd half 54.9% 55.1% — — 1.82
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 48.3% 50.1% — — 2.00
A half drawn 51.7% 49.9% — — 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun (DNB) 67.2% 67.4% 62.3% 1.08× 1.48
Wuhan Three Towns (DNB) 32.8% 32.6% 37.7% 0.86× 3.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to score first 57.8% 62.5% — — 1.60
Wuhan Three Towns to score first 40.1% 41.6% — — 2.41
No goal scored 2.1% 4.3% — — 23.10
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 73.4% 62.6% 63.0% 0.99× 1.60
Not both teams to score 26.6% 37.4% 37.0% 1.01× 2.67
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 66.1% 57.0% 50.8% 1.12× 1.76
Not both score & under 2.5 16.3% 21.5% 28.1% 0.76× 4.66
Not both score & over 2.5 10.3% 12.4% 9.1% 1.36× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 7.3% 8.3% 12.5% 0.66× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 66.5% 71.2% 78.5% 0.91× 1.40
Both teams to score 2+ 33.5% 28.8% 21.5% 1.34× 3.48
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 53.5% 51.9% — — 1.93
Both teams to score in 2nd half 46.5% 48.1% — — 2.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 36.9% 43.3% — — 2.31
Both score 2nd half only 32.2% 28.7% — — 3.48
Both score 1st half only 16.5% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 14.3% 10.8% — — 9.27
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 69.2% 72.9% — — 1.37
Both teams to score by HT 30.8% 27.1% — — 3.69
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 73.6% 75.2% — — 1.33
A half without a goal 26.4% 24.8% — — 4.04
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 45.7% 47.2% 36.7% 1.28× 2.12
2-3 goals 34.3% 30.8% 41.3% 0.75× 3.25
7+ goals 11.2% 16.9% 4.1% 4.15× 5.91
0-1 goals 8.8% 7.6% 18.4% 0.42× 13.08
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns to score exactly 1 31.8% 33.8% 33.8% 1.00× 2.96
Wuhan Three Towns to score exactly 2 26.1% 27.4% 22.4% 1.22× 3.65
Wuhan Three Towns to score 3+ 22.8% 22.3% 16.8% 1.33× 4.49
Wuhan Three Towns to score exactly 0 19.3% 19.5% 27.4% 0.71× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to score 3+ 42.2% 35.2% 26.1% 1.35× 2.84
Yunnan Yukun to score exactly 2 26.3% 26.5% 26.1% 1.02× 3.77
Yunnan Yukun to score exactly 1 22.2% 23.3% 34.5% 0.68× 4.29
Yunnan Yukun to score exactly 0 9.3% 10.4% 13.8% 0.75× 9.64
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun leading at HT 43.3% 42.6% — — 2.35
Draw at HT 33.6% 32.9% — — 3.04
Wuhan Three Towns leading at HT 23.1% 20.4% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun -1: 2 46.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Yunnan Yukun -1: 1 33.8% 30.1% — — 3.32
Yunnan Yukun -1: X 19.9% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns (0:1) 46.3% 46.1% 54.0% 0.85× 2.17
Yunnan Yukun (0:1) 33.8% 30.2% 25.2% 1.20× 3.32
Draw (0:1) 19.9% 17.8% 21.1% 0.85× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns (0:2) 66.2% 72.2% 74.8% 0.96× 1.39
Yunnan Yukun (0:2) 17.9% 15.2% 10.7% 1.43× 6.56
Draw (0:2) 15.9% 15.2% 14.7% 1.03× 6.57
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns (0:3) 82.1% 85.4% 89.3% 0.96× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 9.8% 5.8% 5.9% 0.99× 17.20
Yunnan Yukun (0:3) 8.1% 5.8% 5.0% 1.16× 17.23
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns (0:4) 91.9% 94.5% 95.0% 0.99× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.0% 1.2% 3.9% 0.32× 81.35
Yunnan Yukun (0:4) 3.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.90× 81.55
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun (1:0) 73.8% 72.5% 72.1% 1.00× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 13.7% 12.7% 16.3% 0.78× 7.86
Wuhan Three Towns (1:0) 12.5% 12.7% 11.8% 1.08× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun (2:0) 87.5% 88.5% 88.2% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.6% 6.4% 7.0% 0.91× 15.66
Wuhan Three Towns (2:0) 4.9% 2.3% 5.0% 0.46× 43.62
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.5% 50.0% — — 2.00
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 20.1% 24.4% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to concede 80.7% 80.9% 72.6% 1.12× 1.24
Yunnan Yukun clean sheet 19.3% 19.1% 27.4% 0.70× 5.24
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun clean sheet in 1st half 51.8% 55.8% — — 1.79
Yunnan Yukun to concede in 1st half 48.2% 44.2% — — 2.26
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to concede in 2nd half 62.7% 59.8% — — 1.67
Yunnan Yukun clean sheet in 2nd half 37.3% 40.2% — — 2.49
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun over 2.5 corners 89.2% 86.2% — — 1.16
Yunnan Yukun over 3.5 corners 78.7% 76.5% — — 1.31
Yunnan Yukun over 4.5 corners 65.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Yunnan Yukun under 6.5 corners 61.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
Yunnan Yukun over 5.5 corners 51.9% 52.6% — — 1.90
Yunnan Yukun under 5.5 corners 48.1% 47.4% — — 2.11
Yunnan Yukun over 6.5 corners 38.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
Yunnan Yukun under 4.5 corners 34.3% 33.3% — — 3.00
Yunnan Yukun under 3.5 corners 21.3% 23.5% — — 4.26
Yunnan Yukun under 2.5 corners 10.8% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun over 0.5 goals 90.7% 92.2% 86.2% 1.07× 1.09
Yunnan Yukun under 3.5 goals 78.5% 77.8% 89.6% 0.87× 1.29
Yunnan Yukun over 1.5 goals 68.5% 67.9% 51.9% 1.31× 1.47
Yunnan Yukun under 2.5 goals 57.8% 58.6% 73.9% 0.79× 1.71
Yunnan Yukun over 2.5 goals 42.2% 41.4% 26.1% 1.59× 2.42
Yunnan Yukun under 1.5 goals 31.5% 32.1% 48.1% 0.67× 3.12
Yunnan Yukun over 3.5 goals 21.5% 22.2% 10.4% 2.13× 4.50
Yunnan Yukun under 0.5 goals 9.3% 7.8% 13.8% 0.56× 12.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun under 1.5 in 1st half 72.9% 79.3% — — 1.26
Yunnan Yukun over 0.5 in 1st half 63.9% 64.5% — — 1.55
Yunnan Yukun under 0.5 in 1st half 36.1% 35.5% — — 2.82
Yunnan Yukun over 1.5 in 1st half 27.1% 20.7% — — 4.83
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun scores more in 2nd half 44.3% 41.7% — — 2.40
Yunnan Yukun scores more in 1st half 28.3% 27.8% — — 3.59
Yunnan Yukun scores equally in both 27.4% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns (home no bet) 56.7% 56.4% 51.5% 1.10× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 43.3% 43.6% 48.5% 0.90× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun even goals 50.4% 50.7% 48.1% 1.06× 1.97
Yunnan Yukun odd goals 49.6% 49.3% 51.9% 0.95× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 19.0% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-0 18.7% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-1 12.6% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 0-1 12.2% 11.0% — — 9.10
Any other HT score 11.1% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 9.7% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-1 6.4% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 0-2 4.0% 2.4% — — 42.14
HT 1-2 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.13
HT 2-2 2.1% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun at HT / Yunnan Yukun at FT 34.8% 33.1% — — 3.02
Draw at HT / Yunnan Yukun at FT 15.0% 12.7% — — 7.88
Wuhan Three Towns at HT / Wuhan Three Towns at FT 14.3% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.6% 6.1% — — 16.42
Draw at HT / Wuhan Three Towns at FT 9.0% 6.1% — — 16.44
Yunnan Yukun at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% — — 16.53
Wuhan Three Towns at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.84
Wuhan Three Towns at HT / Yunnan Yukun at FT 4.0% 3.5% — — 28.87
Yunnan Yukun at HT / Wuhan Three Towns at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to score last 57.9% 56.7% — — 1.76
Wuhan Three Towns to score last 40.1% 39.9% — — 2.51
No goal scored 2.1% 4.3% — — 23.10
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.9% 95.6% — — 1.05
Yunnan Yukun to lead by 1 at any time 71.9% 74.0% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 64.1% 61.3% — — 1.63
Wuhan Three Towns to lead by 1 at any time 49.8% 44.4% — — 2.25
Yunnan Yukun to lead by 2 at any time 43.9% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 30.3% 29.7% — — 3.37
Yunnan Yukun to lead by 3 at any time 22.7% 19.5% — — 5.12
Wuhan Three Towns to lead by 2 at any time 21.1% 19.5% — — 5.13
Wuhan Three Towns to lead by 3 at any time 7.6% 6.7% — — 15.03
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun most corners 61.6% 60.6% — — 1.65
Wuhan Three Towns most corners 28.5% 31.1% — — 3.21
Corners level 9.9% 8.4% — — 11.97
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 80.0% 83.4% 77.8% 1.07× 1.20
1-5 goals 76.3% 78.7% 84.8% 0.93× 1.27
2-5 goals 69.5% 68.8% 70.7% 0.97× 1.45
3-6 goals 65.2% 68.8% 55.8% 1.23× 1.45
1-4 goals 60.6% 63.3% 74.8% 0.85× 1.58
3-5 goals 54.7% 53.2% 48.8% 1.09× 1.88
2-4 goals 53.8% 53.2% 60.8% 0.87× 1.88
4-6 goals 45.7% 48.4% 36.7% 1.32× 2.06
1-3 goals 41.0% 43.6% 55.3% 0.79× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.0% 39.2% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
4-5 goals 35.2% 39.2% 29.7% 1.32× 2.55
2-3 goals 34.3% 35.2% 41.3% 0.85× 2.84
5-6 goals 26.2% 30.2% 17.2% 1.75× 3.31
1-2 goals 21.6% 24.4% 36.3% 0.67× 4.09
7+ goals 11.2% 14.8% 4.1% 3.63× 6.76
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun never behind 48.1% 56.8% — — 1.76
Wuhan Three Towns never behind 26.0% 29.8% — — 3.36
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.5% 50.9% 46.3% 1.10× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.5% 49.1% 53.7% 0.91× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.8% 51.7% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 48.2% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.6% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.4% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.9% 95.4% 95.7% 1.00× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 91.2% 92.3% 81.6% 1.13× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 78.3% 77.3% 88.9% 0.87× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 76.4% 77.3% 59.6% 1.30× 1.29
Under 4.5 goals 62.7% 61.7% 78.9% 0.78× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 56.9% 58.6% 40.6% 1.44× 1.71
Under 3.5 goals 43.1% 41.4% 59.4% 0.70× 2.42
Over 4.5 goals 37.3% 38.3% 21.1% 1.82× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 23.6% 22.7% 40.4% 0.56× 4.40
Over 5.5 goals 21.7% 22.7% 11.1% 2.04× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 8.8% 7.7% 18.4% 0.42× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 2.1% 4.6% 4.3% 1.06× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 89.7% 86.8% 76.5% 1.13× 1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 87.5% 86.7% 95.6% 0.91× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 74.3% 72.4% 87.7% 0.83× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.7% 72.3% 50.1% 1.44× 1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 53.6% 51.9% 73.8% 0.70× 1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 46.4% 48.1% 26.2% 1.84× 2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.3% 27.7% 49.9% 0.55× 3.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 25.7% 27.6% 12.3% 2.24× 3.62
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 12.5% 13.3% 4.4% 3.02× 7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 10.3% 13.2% 23.5% 0.56× 7.55
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 81.3% 85.7% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half 76.3% 78.1% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 50.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 1st half 50.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 1st half 23.7% 21.9% — — 4.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 18.7% 14.3% — — 6.97
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 90.2% 89.8% — — 1.11
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 67.8% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 58.7% 55.2% — — 1.81
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 41.3% 44.8% — — 2.23
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 32.2% 31.5% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 9.8% 10.2% — — 9.78
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns not to score in both halves 69.8% 70.2% — — 1.43
Yunnan Yukun not to score in both halves 52.6% 55.7% — — 1.79
Yunnan Yukun to score in both halves 47.4% 44.3% — — 2.26
Wuhan Three Towns to score in both halves 30.2% 29.8% — — 3.35
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 73.4% 66.2% 63.0% 1.05× 1.51
Only Yunnan Yukun scores 17.3% 16.0% 23.4% 0.69× 6.24
Only Wuhan Three Towns scores 7.3% 7.1% 9.8% 0.73× 14.00
Neither team scores 2.1% 4.6% 4.3% 1.07× 21.64
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 21.7% 22.6% 11.1% 2.03× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.5% 17.5% 19.3% 0.91× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 19.6% 17.5% 19.7% 0.89× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 15.7% 17.5% 10.2% 1.71× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 14.8% 12.1% 22.2% 0.55× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 6.7% 7.6% 14.3% 0.53× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 2.1% 4.5% 4.3% 1.04× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 31.3% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 26.3% 28.6% — — 3.50
3+ goals in 1st half 23.7% 21.4% — — 4.67
No goals in 1st half 18.7% 15.8% — — 6.35
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 67.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
1 goal in 2nd half 22.4% 22.9% — — 4.37
No goals in 2nd half 9.8% 10.4% — — 9.64
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns not to win both halves 93.7% 94.2% — — 1.06
Yunnan Yukun not to win both halves 80.4% 83.3% — — 1.20
Yunnan Yukun to win both halves 19.6% 16.7% — — 6.00
Wuhan Three Towns to win both halves 6.3% 5.8% — — 17.20
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yunnan Yukun to win either half 68.8% 67.9% — — 1.47
Wuhan Three Towns to win neither half 56.0% 59.0% — — 1.70
Wuhan Three Towns to win either half 44.0% 41.0% — — 2.44
Yunnan Yukun to win neither half 31.2% 32.1% — — 3.12
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wuhan Three Towns not to win to nil 92.7% 92.1% 90.2% 1.02× 1.09
Yunnan Yukun not to win to nil 82.7% 83.1% 76.6% 1.08× 1.20
Yunnan Yukun to win to nil 17.3% 16.9% 23.4% 0.72× 5.91
Wuhan Three Towns to win to nil 7.3% 7.9% 9.8% 0.81× 12.65
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 20.0% 24.1% 26.3% 0.92× 4.15
Yunnan Yukun by 1 19.9% 17.1% 21.1% 0.81× 5.87
Yunnan Yukun by 3+ 17.9% 17.0% 10.7% 1.60× 5.87
Yunnan Yukun by 2 15.9% 17.0% 14.7% 1.16× 5.87
Wuhan Three Towns by 1 13.7% 11.8% 16.3% 0.72× 8.50
Wuhan Three Towns by 2 7.6% 7.2% 7.0% 1.02× 13.91
Wuhan Three Towns by 3+ 4.9% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.82
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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