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Zenit St Petersburg v CSKA Moscow — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Zenit St Petersburg win
56.1%
Draw
28.4%
CSKA Moscow win
15.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.52–0.69 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.48–0.59 1-0 17% 34% 36%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to win 56.1% 58.4% 44.1% 1.33× 1.71
Draw 28.4% 27.6% 28.0% 0.99× 3.62
CSKA Moscow to win 15.5% 19.1% 28.2% 0.68× 5.25
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg & not both score 38.1% 37.4% 25.5% 1.46× 2.68
Zenit St Petersburg & both teams score 18.0% 17.8% 18.8% 0.95× 5.63
Draw & both teams score 16.1% 17.7% 20.8% 0.85× 5.64
Draw & not both score 12.3% 12.2% 7.3% 1.65× 8.23
CSKA Moscow & not both score 9.6% 7.3% 14.9% 0.49× 13.62
CSKA Moscow & both teams score 5.9% 7.3% 13.5% 0.54× 13.71
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg & under 3.5 43.4% 44.0% 30.8% 1.43× 2.27
Zenit St Petersburg & over 1.5 40.6% 43.9% 33.5% 1.31× 2.28
Zenit St Petersburg & under 2.5 28.2% 25.5% 18.4% 1.39× 3.92
Zenit St Petersburg & over 2.5 27.9% 25.5% 25.9% 0.98× 3.92
Draw & under 2.5 25.0% 21.5% 22.2% 0.97× 4.65
Draw & under 3.5 25.0% 21.5% 22.2% 0.97× 4.65
Draw & over 1.5 16.1% 17.6% 20.8% 0.84× 5.70
Zenit St Petersburg & under 1.5 15.5% 17.6% 10.8% 1.62× 5.70
CSKA Moscow & under 3.5 13.4% 12.7% 20.6% 0.62× 7.86
Zenit St Petersburg & over 3.5 12.7% 12.7% 13.5% 0.94× 7.86
Draw & under 1.5 12.3% 12.7% 7.3% 1.73× 7.86
CSKA Moscow & over 1.5 9.2% 7.5% 20.6% 0.36× 13.40
CSKA Moscow & under 2.5 8.9% 7.5% 11.8% 0.63× 13.40
CSKA Moscow & over 2.5 6.6% 7.5% 16.5% 0.45× 13.41
CSKA Moscow & under 1.5 6.3% 7.5% 7.8% 0.96× 13.42
Draw & over 2.5 3.4% 4.6% 5.9% 0.77× 21.96
Draw & over 3.5 3.4% 4.6% 5.9% 0.77× 21.96
CSKA Moscow & over 3.5 2.1% 4.5% 7.8% 0.59× 22.02
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (1UP) 66.8% 72.1% 1.39
CSKA Moscow (1UP) 29.8% 24.8% 4.03
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (2UP) 56.1% 61.1% 1.64
CSKA Moscow (2UP) 15.5% 22.7% 4.41
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to win 2nd half 44.2% 39.6% 2.53
2nd half drawn 39.6% 37.5% 2.66
CSKA Moscow to win 2nd half 16.2% 20.0% 4.99
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (+2.5) 87.5% 89.0% 89.6% 0.99× 1.12
Zenit St Petersburg (+0.5) 84.5% 82.4% 71.8% 1.15× 1.21
CSKA Moscow (+1.5) 69.7% 69.0% 77.3% 0.89× 1.45
Zenit St Petersburg (-0.5) 56.1% 57.1% 44.1% 1.29× 1.75
CSKA Moscow (+0.5) 43.9% 42.9% 55.9% 0.77× 2.33
Zenit St Petersburg (-1.5) 30.3% 31.0% 22.7% 1.37× 3.23
CSKA Moscow (-0.5) 15.5% 17.6% 28.2% 0.63× 5.67
Zenit St Petersburg (-2.5) 12.5% 11.0% 10.4% 1.06× 9.08
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to concede 78.1% 76.1% 78.0% 0.98× 1.31
CSKA Moscow clean sheet 21.9% 23.9% 22.0% 1.08× 4.18
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow clean sheet in 1st half 52.0% 54.7% 1.83
CSKA Moscow to concede in 1st half 48.0% 45.3% 2.21
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.4% 96.9% 1.00× 1.03
CSKA Moscow under 2.5 goals 96.8% 97.3% 88.8% 1.10× 1.03
CSKA Moscow under 1.5 goals 84.9% 82.3% 70.2% 1.17× 1.22
CSKA Moscow under 0.5 goals 50.4% 51.8% 32.7% 1.59× 1.93
CSKA Moscow over 0.5 goals 49.6% 48.2% 67.3% 0.72× 2.07
CSKA Moscow over 1.5 goals 15.1% 17.7% 29.8% 0.59× 5.66
CSKA Moscow over 2.5 goals 3.2% 2.7% 11.2% 0.24× 37.28
CSKA Moscow over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.6% 3.1% 0.86× 37.99
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow under 1.5 in 1st half 96.9% 96.2% 1.04
CSKA Moscow under 0.5 in 1st half 76.0% 78.9% 1.27
CSKA Moscow over 0.5 in 1st half 24.0% 21.1% 4.74
CSKA Moscow over 1.5 in 1st half 3.1% 3.8% 26.44
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (away no bet) 66.4% 71.5% 61.2% 1.17× 1.40
Draw (away no bet) 33.6% 28.5% 38.8% 0.73× 3.51
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow even goals 62.7% 64.6% 53.3% 1.21× 1.55
CSKA Moscow odd goals 37.3% 35.4% 46.7% 0.76× 2.82
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.3% 92.1% 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.7% 7.9% 12.63
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 52.3% 55.7% 1.80
Both halves under 1.5 goals 47.7% 44.3% 2.26
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.7% 47.7% 2.10
Zenit St Petersburg to score 2+ in a row 39.7% 37.5% 2.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.0% 17.8% 5.62
Zenit St Petersburg to score 3+ in a row 15.3% 17.8% 5.63
CSKA Moscow to score 2+ in a row 10.6% 12.1% 8.23
CSKA Moscow to score 3+ in a row 1.7% 3.3% 29.96
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 15.5% 11.6% 10.8% 1.07× 8.62
1-1 12.7% 11.6% 15.1% 0.77× 8.63
2-0 12.7% 11.6% 7.8% 1.49× 8.63
0-0 12.3% 11.6% 7.3% 1.58× 8.63
2-1 8.7% 7.3% 8.8% 0.83× 13.74
0-1 6.3% 7.3% 7.8% 0.94× 13.75
3-0 6.5% 7.3% 4.1% 1.78× 13.75
1-2 3.9% 1.8% 6.7% 0.27× 55.41
3-1 4.4% 1.8% 4.3% 0.42× 55.40
0-2 2.6% 1.8% 4.3% 0.42× 55.44
2-2 3.0% 1.8% 4.9% 0.37× 55.43
4-0 2.5% 1.8% 2.4% 0.74× 55.45
4-1 1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.26× 55.47
Any other score 2.0% 1.8% 4.1% 0.44× 55.46
3-2 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% 0.80× 55.47
4-2 0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 2.21× 55.49
4-3 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 4.41× 55.51
4-4 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 8.83× 55.51
0-3 0.6% 1.8% 2.4% 0.74× 55.49
0-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 4.41× 55.51
1-3 0.9% 1.8% 2.4% 0.74× 55.49
1-4 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 1.77× 55.50
2-3 0.7% 1.8% 2.7% 0.68× 55.49
2-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.8% 2.21× 55.51
3-3 0.3% 1.8% 1.2% 1.47× 55.50
3-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 4.41× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg leading at HT (DNB) 74.6% 74.0% 1.35
CSKA Moscow leading at HT (DNB) 25.4% 26.0% 3.84
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw (1X) 84.5% 80.9% 71.8% 1.13× 1.24
Zenit St Petersburg or CSKA Moscow (12) 71.6% 72.4% 72.0% 1.00× 1.38
CSKA Moscow or draw (X2) 43.9% 41.6% 55.9% 0.74× 2.41
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw at HT 86.6% 88.3% 1.13
CSKA Moscow or draw at HT 60.7% 63.1% 1.58
Zenit St Petersburg or CSKA Moscow at HT 52.6% 52.0% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw (1UP) 84.5% 84.0% 1.19
CSKA Moscow or draw (1UP) 43.9% 45.9% 2.18
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw in 2nd half 83.8% 80.0% 1.25
Zenit St Petersburg or CSKA Moscow in 2nd half 60.4% 62.5% 1.60
CSKA Moscow or draw in 2nd half 55.8% 60.4% 1.66
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.9% 66.1% 1.51
Neither half drawn 33.1% 33.9% 2.95
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (DNB) 78.4% 78.2% 61.0% 1.28× 1.28
CSKA Moscow (DNB) 21.6% 21.8% 39.0% 0.56× 4.58
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to score first 60.5% 66.6% 1.50
CSKA Moscow to score first 27.3% 24.7% 4.05
No goal scored 12.3% 8.8% 11.34
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 60.0% 56.8% 47.3% 1.20× 1.76
Both teams to score 40.0% 43.2% 52.7% 0.82× 2.32
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 49.4% 45.4% 37.1% 1.22× 2.20
Both score & over 2.5 27.3% 31.5% 37.8% 0.83× 3.18
Both score & under 2.5 12.7% 11.7% 15.1% 0.78× 8.52
Not both score & over 2.5 10.6% 11.7% 10.4% 1.12× 8.55
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 93.2% 89.0% 86.9% 1.02× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 6.8% 11.0% 13.1% 0.84× 9.07
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 80.0% 76.8% 1.30
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.0% 23.3% 4.30
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 70.5% 67.8% 1.48
Both score 2nd half only 17.7% 18.2% 5.50
Both score 1st half only 9.5% 6.6% 15.25
Both score in both halves 2.3% 4.8% 21.00
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.3% 85.6% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 11.7% 14.4% 6.94
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.8% 55.6% 1.80
A goal in each half 44.2% 44.4% 2.25
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.8% 45.9% 48.0% 0.96× 2.18
0-1 goals 34.1% 31.7% 25.5% 1.24× 3.16
4-6 goals 17.4% 20.7% 25.3% 0.82× 4.83
7+ goals 0.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.18× 52.05
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to score exactly 0 50.4% 49.7% 32.7% 1.52× 2.01
CSKA Moscow to score exactly 1 34.5% 33.3% 37.8% 0.88× 3.00
CSKA Moscow to score exactly 2 11.8% 13.4% 18.8% 0.71× 7.48
CSKA Moscow to score 3+ 3.2% 4.1% 11.2% 0.36× 24.61
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to score exactly 1 33.2% 30.6% 35.3% 0.87× 3.27
Zenit St Petersburg to score exactly 2 25.3% 27.0% 24.3% 1.11× 3.70
Zenit St Petersburg to score exactly 0 21.9% 22.9% 22.0% 1.04× 4.36
Zenit St Petersburg to score 3+ 19.6% 18.6% 18.8% 0.99× 5.39
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.4% 48.0% 2.09
Zenit St Petersburg leading at HT 39.3% 36.9% 2.71
CSKA Moscow leading at HT 13.4% 11.7% 8.54
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg -1: 2 43.9% 42.3% 2.36
Zenit St Petersburg -1: 1 30.3% 32.0% 3.13
Zenit St Petersburg -1: X 25.9% 27.0% 3.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (0:1) 43.9% 41.9% 55.9% 0.75× 2.38
Zenit St Petersburg (0:1) 30.3% 34.4% 22.7% 1.52× 2.91
Draw (0:1) 25.9% 26.2% 21.6% 1.21× 3.81
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (0:2) 69.7% 66.3% 77.3% 0.86× 1.51
Draw (0:2) 17.8% 16.3% 12.4% 1.31× 6.12
Zenit St Petersburg (0:2) 12.5% 11.7% 10.4% 1.13× 8.52
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (0:3) 87.5% 88.3% 89.6% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 8.3% 6.9% 5.9% 1.17× 14.40
Zenit St Petersburg (0:3) 4.2% 2.3% 4.7% 0.50× 42.69
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (0:4) 95.8% 98.0% 95.3% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.0% 1.3% 3.7% 0.34× 79.81
Zenit St Petersburg (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.01× 80.75
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (1:0) 84.5% 80.8% 71.8% 1.12× 1.24
Draw (1:0) 11.0% 11.7% 16.9% 0.69× 8.53
CSKA Moscow (1:0) 4.5% 3.1% 11.4% 0.27× 32.35
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (2:0) 95.5% 97.2% 88.6% 1.10× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.6% 2.7% 7.3% 0.37× 36.92
CSKA Moscow (2:0) 0.9% 2.7% 4.3% 0.62× 37.59
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.5% 49.4% 2.02
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 30.4% 25.4% 3.94
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg clean sheet 50.4% 52.9% 32.7% 1.62× 1.89
Zenit St Petersburg to concede 49.6% 47.1% 67.3% 0.70× 2.12
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg clean sheet in 1st half 76.0% 77.5% 1.29
Zenit St Petersburg to concede in 1st half 24.0% 22.5% 4.45
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg under 3.5 goals 93.2% 92.1% 92.7% 0.99× 1.09
Zenit St Petersburg under 2.5 goals 80.4% 82.4% 81.2% 1.01× 1.21
Zenit St Petersburg over 0.5 goals 78.1% 76.8% 78.0% 0.98× 1.30
Zenit St Petersburg under 1.5 goals 55.1% 55.6% 57.1% 0.97× 1.80
Zenit St Petersburg over 1.5 goals 44.9% 44.4% 42.9% 1.04× 2.25
Zenit St Petersburg under 0.5 goals 21.9% 23.2% 22.0% 1.05× 4.31
Zenit St Petersburg over 2.5 goals 19.6% 17.6% 18.8% 0.94× 5.67
Zenit St Petersburg over 3.5 goals 6.8% 7.9% 7.3% 1.07× 12.67
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg under 1.5 in 1st half 86.0% 87.7% 1.14
Zenit St Petersburg under 0.5 in 1st half 52.0% 54.7% 1.83
Zenit St Petersburg over 0.5 in 1st half 48.0% 45.3% 2.21
Zenit St Petersburg over 1.5 in 1st half 14.0% 12.3% 8.15
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 64.6% 61.7% 49.8% 1.24× 1.62
CSKA Moscow (home no bet) 35.4% 38.3% 50.2% 0.76× 2.61
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg even goals 52.4% 50.3% 50.4% 1.00× 1.99
Zenit St Petersburg odd goals 47.6% 49.7% 49.6% 1.00× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 39.7% 36.7% 2.73
HT 1-0 25.6% 28.0% 3.57
HT 0-1 10.6% 11.2% 8.95
HT 2-0 8.4% 7.7% 12.99
HT 1-1 7.3% 7.7% 13.00
Any other HT score 3.1% 2.5% 39.82
HT 2-1 2.3% 2.5% 39.87
HT 0-2 1.5% 2.5% 39.92
HT 1-2 1.0% 2.5% 39.94
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.5% 39.98
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg at HT / Zenit St Petersburg at FT 34.0% 34.4% 2.91
Draw at HT / Zenit St Petersburg at FT 20.2% 21.4% 4.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.1% 21.4% 4.68
CSKA Moscow at HT / CSKA Moscow at FT 7.5% 6.6% 15.21
Draw at HT / CSKA Moscow at FT 7.1% 6.6% 15.22
Zenit St Petersburg at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.4% 29.33
CSKA Moscow at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.4% 29.35
CSKA Moscow at HT / Zenit St Petersburg at FT 2.0% 3.4% 29.43
Zenit St Petersburg at HT / CSKA Moscow at FT 0.9% 3.4% 29.47
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to score last 60.7% 60.0% 1.67
CSKA Moscow to score last 27.0% 31.6% 3.17
No goal scored 12.3% 8.8% 11.34
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 87.7% 91.4% 1.09
Zenit St Petersburg to lead by 1 at any time 66.8% 70.8% 1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 41.7% 42.1% 2.38
Zenit St Petersburg to lead by 2 at any time 34.7% 32.1% 3.11
CSKA Moscow to lead by 1 at any time 29.8% 26.1% 3.84
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.3% 17.6% 5.67
Zenit St Petersburg to lead by 3 at any time 14.0% 11.4% 8.81
CSKA Moscow to lead by 2 at any time 7.1% 7.0% 14.20
CSKA Moscow to lead by 3 at any time 1.3% 2.6% 38.81
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.2% 87.8% 87.6% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.4% 81.5% 79.6% 1.02× 1.23
1-3 goals 69.6% 68.4% 66.1% 1.03× 1.46
2-6 goals 65.2% 68.3% 73.1% 0.93× 1.46
2-5 goals 63.4% 62.3% 69.4% 0.90× 1.61
2-4 goals 58.6% 58.8% 61.4% 0.96× 1.70
1-2 goals 49.8% 48.0% 44.9% 1.07× 2.08
2-3 goals 47.8% 48.0% 48.0% 1.00× 2.08
3-6 goals 37.1% 38.8% 46.5% 0.83× 2.58
3-5 goals 35.4% 38.8% 42.9% 0.91× 2.58
3-4 goals 30.6% 34.1% 34.9% 0.98× 2.93
4-6 goals 17.4% 18.1% 25.3% 0.72× 5.53
4-5 goals 15.7% 18.1% 21.6% 0.83× 5.54
5-6 goals 6.6% 8.8% 11.8% 0.74× 11.40
7+ goals 0.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.23× 49.99
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg never behind 58.0% 63.0% 1.59
CSKA Moscow never behind 21.0% 23.8% 4.20
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.9% 50.1% 48.8% 1.03× 2.00
Even number of goals 53.1% 49.9% 51.2% 0.97× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.2% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 41.8% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.7% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.3% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.5% 95.7% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.7% 92.9% 86.7% 1.07× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 87.7% 88.8% 92.7% 0.96× 1.13
Under 3.5 goals 81.8% 81.0% 73.3% 1.10× 1.24
Over 1.5 goals 65.9% 65.4% 74.5% 0.88× 1.53
Under 2.5 goals 62.1% 61.5% 52.0% 1.18× 1.63
Over 2.5 goals 37.9% 38.5% 48.0% 0.80× 2.60
Under 1.5 goals 34.1% 34.6% 25.5% 1.35× 2.89
Over 3.5 goals 18.2% 19.0% 26.7% 0.71× 5.25
Under 0.5 goals 12.3% 11.2% 7.3% 1.53× 8.90
Over 4.5 goals 7.3% 7.1% 13.3% 0.53× 14.18
Over 5.5 goals 2.5% 4.3% 5.3% 0.82× 23.02
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.2% 97.2% 98.3% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.4% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.8% 92.7% 84.7% 1.09× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 77.4% 76.5% 66.1% 1.16× 1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 52.7% 53.1% 65.3% 0.81× 1.88
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 47.3% 46.9% 34.7% 1.35× 2.13
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 22.6% 23.5% 33.9% 0.69× 4.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 8.2% 7.3% 15.3% 0.48× 13.71
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.6% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 36.04
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.8% 2.8% 1.7% 1.62× 36.34
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.2% 92.3% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.0% 77.9% 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 60.3% 62.9% 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 39.7% 37.1% 2.70
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.0% 22.1% 4.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.8% 7.7% 12.92
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 86.2% 85.8% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 71.7% 76.3% 1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 63.0% 61.0% 1.64
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 37.0% 39.0% 2.56
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 28.3% 23.7% 4.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 13.8% 14.2% 7.03
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow not to score in both halves 91.9% 90.2% 1.11
Zenit St Petersburg not to score in both halves 72.2% 70.4% 1.42
Zenit St Petersburg to score in both halves 27.8% 29.6% 3.38
CSKA Moscow to score in both halves 8.1% 9.8% 10.16
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 40.0% 45.4% 52.7% 0.86× 2.20
Only Zenit St Petersburg scores 38.1% 40.0% 25.5% 1.57× 2.50
Neither team scores 12.3% 10.8% 7.3% 1.47× 9.26
Only CSKA Moscow scores 9.6% 6.7% 14.9% 0.45× 14.95
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.0% 24.8% 26.7% 0.93× 4.04
Exactly 1 goals 21.8% 21.5% 18.4% 1.17× 4.64
Exactly 3 goals 19.7% 18.6% 21.4% 0.87× 5.38
Exactly 0 goals 12.3% 12.4% 7.3% 1.68× 8.09
Exactly 4 goals 10.9% 12.3% 13.7% 0.90× 8.10
Exactly 5 goals 4.8% 4.4% 8.2% 0.54× 22.80
6 or more goals 2.5% 4.3% 5.3% 0.82× 23.04
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 37.0% 38.4% 2.61
1 goal in 2nd half 34.8% 33.2% 3.01
No goals in 2nd half 28.3% 28.4% 3.52
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow not to win both halves 97.7% 96.7% 1.03
Zenit St Petersburg not to win both halves 82.4% 82.9% 1.21
Zenit St Petersburg to win both halves 17.6% 17.2% 5.83
CSKA Moscow to win both halves 2.3% 3.3% 30.31
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to win neither half 72.7% 72.3% 1.38
Zenit St Petersburg to win either half 65.8% 67.1% 1.49
Zenit St Petersburg to win neither half 34.2% 32.9% 3.04
CSKA Moscow to win either half 27.3% 27.7% 3.61
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow not to win to nil 90.4% 92.2% 85.1% 1.08× 1.08
Zenit St Petersburg not to win to nil 61.9% 61.2% 74.5% 0.82× 1.63
Zenit St Petersburg to win to nil 38.1% 38.8% 25.5% 1.52× 2.58
CSKA Moscow to win to nil 9.6% 7.8% 14.9% 0.52× 12.85
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.4% 28.0% 28.0% 1.00× 3.57
Zenit St Petersburg by 1 25.9% 28.0% 21.6% 1.29× 3.57
Zenit St Petersburg by 2 17.8% 17.0% 12.4% 1.36× 5.89
Zenit St Petersburg by 3+ 12.5% 11.9% 10.4% 1.14× 8.44
CSKA Moscow by 1 11.0% 11.8% 16.9% 0.70× 8.45
CSKA Moscow by 2 3.6% 2.8% 7.3% 0.39× 35.26
CSKA Moscow by 3+ 0.9% 2.8% 4.3% 0.65× 35.66
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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