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Zenit St Petersburg v Dynamo Makhachkala — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Zenit St Petersburg win
74.2%
model 72.8%
Draw
18.5%
model 19.8%
Dynamo Makhachkala win
7.3%
model 7.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (637 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 16.1%
  2. 1-0 14.8%
  3. 3-0 11.0%
  4. 1-1 8.9%
  5. 0-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.547.6% Under 2.552.4%
BTTS yes36.2% BTTS no63.8%
Zenit St Petersburg 1+87.2% Zenit St Petersburg 2+60.9%
Dynamo Makhachkala 1+40.5% Dynamo Makhachkala 2+9.6%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Zenit St Petersburg carry the stronger rating, 1735 Elo against 1412.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Zenit St Petersburg have an estimated 74.2% win probability, against 18.5% for the draw and 7.3% for Dynamo Makhachkala. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.06 for Zenit St Petersburg and 0.52 for Dynamo Makhachkala.

Why Zenit St Petersburg

Zenit St Petersburg carry the stronger rating, 1735 Elo against 1412. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.5%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Dynamo Makhachkala can win

Nothing in the data singles out Dynamo Makhachkala.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Zenit St Petersburg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dynamo Makhachkala, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Zenit St Petersburg: 62% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dynamo Makhachkala: 39% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Zenit St Petersburg are the model's most likely outcome at 74.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 16.1%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.87–0.39 1-0 19% 40% 28%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to win 72.7% 73.5% 44.1% 1.67× 1.36
Draw 21.2% 24.5% 28.0% 0.88× 4.08
Dynamo Makhachkala to win 6.1% 8.2% 28.2% 0.29× 12.18
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg & not both score 56.2% 50.4% 25.5% 1.98× 1.98
Zenit St Petersburg & both teams score 16.4% 17.9% 18.8% 0.96× 5.58
Draw & not both score 11.2% 13.3% 7.3% 1.81× 7.54
Draw & both teams score 10.0% 13.3% 20.8% 0.64× 7.54
Dynamo Makhachkala & not both score 4.2% 4.9% 14.9% 0.33× 20.34
Dynamo Makhachkala & both teams score 1.9% 4.9% 13.5% 0.36× 20.40
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg & under 3.5 55.3% 55.0% 30.8% 1.78× 1.82
Zenit St Petersburg & over 1.5 54.1% 48.6% 33.5% 1.45× 2.06
Zenit St Petersburg & under 2.5 36.8% 34.8% 18.4% 1.90× 2.87
Zenit St Petersburg & over 2.5 35.9% 34.8% 25.9% 1.34× 2.87
Draw & under 2.5 19.7% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 19.7% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.56
Zenit St Petersburg & under 1.5 18.6% 18.0% 10.8% 1.66× 5.56
Zenit St Petersburg & over 3.5 17.4% 18.0% 13.5% 1.34× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 11.2% 12.9% 7.3% 1.75× 7.76
Draw & over 1.5 10.0% 12.9% 20.8% 0.62× 7.76
Dynamo Makhachkala & under 3.5 5.7% 7.9% 20.6% 0.38× 12.65
Dynamo Makhachkala & under 2.5 4.1% 4.8% 11.8% 0.41× 20.86
Dynamo Makhachkala & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 7.8% 0.62× 20.86
Dynamo Makhachkala & over 1.5 2.9% 4.8% 20.6% 0.23× 20.86
Dynamo Makhachkala & over 2.5 2.1% 4.8% 16.5% 0.29× 20.87
Draw & over 2.5 1.5% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.87
Draw & over 3.5 1.5% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.87
Dynamo Makhachkala & over 3.5 0.4% 4.8% 7.8% 0.62× 20.88
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (1UP) 78.6% 79.0% 1.27
Dynamo Makhachkala (1UP) 16.2% 21.9% 4.57
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (2UP) 72.7% 80.6% 1.24
Dynamo Makhachkala (2UP) 6.1% 8.2% 12.23
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to win 2nd half 57.1% 59.7% 1.68
2nd half drawn 35.0% 35.9% 2.79
Dynamo Makhachkala to win 2nd half 7.9% 7.6% 13.13
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala under 1.5 in 2nd half 97.6% 94.5% 1.06
Dynamo Makhachkala under 0.5 in 2nd half 78.9% 79.7% 1.26
Dynamo Makhachkala over 0.5 in 2nd half 21.1% 20.3% 4.92
Dynamo Makhachkala over 1.5 in 2nd half 2.4% 5.5% 18.27
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg under 1.5 in 2nd half 71.1% 73.6% 1.36
Zenit St Petersburg over 0.5 in 2nd half 65.6% 71.0% 1.41
Zenit St Petersburg under 0.5 in 2nd half 34.4% 29.0% 3.45
Zenit St Petersburg over 1.5 in 2nd half 28.9% 26.4% 3.78
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (+0.5) 93.9% 92.1% 71.8% 1.28× 1.09
Dynamo Makhachkala (+2.5) 77.1% 78.4% 89.6% 0.88× 1.28
Zenit St Petersburg (-0.5) 72.7% 73.8% 44.1% 1.67× 1.36
Dynamo Makhachkala (+1.5) 54.0% 52.4% 77.3% 0.68× 1.91
Zenit St Petersburg (-1.5) 46.0% 47.6% 22.7% 2.10× 2.10
Dynamo Makhachkala (+0.5) 27.3% 26.3% 55.9% 0.47× 3.81
Zenit St Petersburg (-2.5) 22.9% 21.6% 10.4% 2.07× 4.63
Dynamo Makhachkala (-0.5) 6.1% 7.9% 28.2% 0.28× 12.61
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala to concede 84.6% 81.3% 78.0% 1.04× 1.23
Dynamo Makhachkala clean sheet 15.4% 18.7% 22.0% 0.85× 5.36
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala to concede in 1st half 55.3% 58.4% 1.71
Dynamo Makhachkala clean sheet in 1st half 44.7% 41.6% 2.40
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala to concede in 2nd half 65.6% 66.4% 1.51
Dynamo Makhachkala clean sheet in 2nd half 34.4% 33.6% 2.98
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala under 6.5 corners 92.6% 90.0% 1.11
Dynamo Makhachkala under 5.5 corners 85.6% 85.2% 1.17
Dynamo Makhachkala under 4.5 corners 74.3% 71.6% 1.40
Dynamo Makhachkala over 2.5 corners 62.1% 61.8% 1.62
Dynamo Makhachkala under 3.5 corners 57.9% 57.1% 1.75
Dynamo Makhachkala over 3.5 corners 42.1% 42.9% 2.33
Dynamo Makhachkala under 2.5 corners 37.9% 38.2% 2.62
Dynamo Makhachkala over 4.5 corners 25.7% 28.4% 3.52
Dynamo Makhachkala over 5.5 corners 14.4% 14.8% 6.76
Dynamo Makhachkala over 6.5 corners 7.4% 10.0% 9.96
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala under 3.5 goals 99.9% 97.5% 96.9% 1.01× 1.03
Dynamo Makhachkala under 2.5 goals 99.2% 97.5% 88.8% 1.10× 1.03
Dynamo Makhachkala under 1.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 70.2% 1.32× 1.08
Dynamo Makhachkala under 0.5 goals 67.4% 68.0% 32.7% 2.08× 1.47
Dynamo Makhachkala over 0.5 goals 32.6% 32.0% 67.3% 0.48× 3.13
Dynamo Makhachkala over 1.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 29.8% 0.26× 13.02
Dynamo Makhachkala over 2.5 goals 0.8% 2.5% 11.2% 0.22× 40.14
Dynamo Makhachkala over 3.5 goals 0.1% 2.5% 3.1% 0.81× 40.18
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala under 1.5 in 1st half 98.9% 96.1% 1.04
Dynamo Makhachkala under 0.5 in 1st half 85.4% 88.9% 1.13
Dynamo Makhachkala over 0.5 in 1st half 14.6% 11.1% 8.98
Dynamo Makhachkala over 1.5 in 1st half 1.1% 3.9% 25.84
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala scores equally in both 70.0% 70.7% 1.41
Dynamo Makhachkala scores more in 2nd half 18.3% 18.0% 5.57
Dynamo Makhachkala scores more in 1st half 11.7% 10.2% 9.81
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (away no bet) 77.4% 73.6% 61.2% 1.20× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 22.6% 26.4% 38.8% 0.68× 3.79
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala even goals 72.7% 68.1% 53.3% 1.28× 1.47
Dynamo Makhachkala odd goals 27.3% 31.9% 46.7% 0.68× 3.13
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.6% 92.2% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.4% 7.8% 12.87
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 53.6% 50.5% 1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals 46.4% 49.5% 2.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.0% 55.0% 1.82
Zenit St Petersburg to score 2+ in a row 52.5% 51.3% 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.6% 25.0% 4.00
Zenit St Petersburg to score 3+ in a row 25.3% 25.0% 4.00
Dynamo Makhachkala to score 2+ in a row 3.8% 2.6% 38.32
Dynamo Makhachkala to score 3+ in a row 0.3% 2.5% 40.48
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg corners (+3.5) 96.4% 95.8% 1.04
Zenit St Petersburg corners (+2.5) 93.3% 89.6% 1.12
Zenit St Petersburg corners (+1.5) 88.4% 84.5% 1.18
Dynamo Makhachkala corners (+3.5) 61.6% 61.8% 1.62
Zenit St Petersburg corners (-1.5) 61.4% 61.8% 1.62
Dynamo Makhachkala corners (+2.5) 50.2% 52.5% 1.91
Zenit St Petersburg corners (-2.5) 49.8% 47.5% 2.10
Dynamo Makhachkala corners (+1.5) 38.6% 38.2% 2.62
Zenit St Petersburg corners (-3.5) 38.4% 38.2% 2.62
Dynamo Makhachkala corners (-1.5) 11.6% 15.5% 6.45
Dynamo Makhachkala corners (-2.5) 6.7% 10.4% 9.58
Dynamo Makhachkala corners (-3.5) 3.6% 4.2% 23.65
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 44.2% 38.3% 2.61
9-11 corners 30.6% 33.2% 3.01
12+ corners 25.2% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.1% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 74.8% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.2% 67.7% 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 65.9% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 55.8% 57.9% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 55.5% 57.9% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 44.2% 42.1% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 44.5% 42.1% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 34.1% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 32.8% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 25.2% 27.4% 3.65
Over 12.5 corners 17.9% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 18.6% 13.8% 10.8% 1.28× 7.24
2-0 18.2% 13.8% 7.8% 1.78× 7.24
0-0 11.2% 11.4% 7.3% 1.56× 8.74
3-0 11.4% 11.4% 4.1% 2.80× 8.74
1-1 8.5% 7.4% 15.1% 0.49× 13.50
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.50
4-0 5.3% 7.4% 2.4% 3.02× 13.50
0-1 3.3% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.30
0-2 0.8% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
0-3 0.1% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.32
1-2 1.5% 1.7% 6.7% 0.25× 58.31
1-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
1-4 0.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.32
2-2 1.4% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.31
2-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.32
2-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.10× 58.32
3-1 4.5% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.29
3-2 0.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.76× 58.31
3-3 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.40× 58.32
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.32
4-1 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.31
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.10× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.40× 58.32
Any other score 4.2% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (2nd half DNB) 87.9% 87.2% 1.15
Dynamo Makhachkala (2nd half DNB) 12.1% 12.8% 7.79
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg leading at HT (DNB) 88.0% 86.9% 1.15
Dynamo Makhachkala leading at HT (DNB) 12.0% 13.1% 7.65
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw (1X) 93.9% 91.8% 71.8% 1.28× 1.09
Zenit St Petersburg or Dynamo Makhachkala (12) 78.8% 75.5% 72.0% 1.05× 1.32
Dynamo Makhachkala or draw (X2) 27.3% 26.5% 55.9% 0.47× 3.78
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw at HT 93.2% 90.6% 1.10
Zenit St Petersburg or Dynamo Makhachkala at HT 56.5% 56.9% 1.76
Dynamo Makhachkala or draw at HT 50.2% 47.5% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw (1UP) 93.9% 94.0% 1.06
Dynamo Makhachkala or draw (1UP) 27.3% 31.7% 3.16
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg or draw in 2nd half 92.1% 92.4% 1.08
Zenit St Petersburg or Dynamo Makhachkala in 2nd half 65.0% 64.1% 1.56
Dynamo Makhachkala or draw in 2nd half 42.9% 40.3% 2.48
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.3% 61.7% 1.62
Neither half drawn 37.7% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (DNB) 92.2% 93.1% 61.0% 1.53× 1.07
Dynamo Makhachkala (DNB) 7.8% 6.9% 39.0% 0.18× 14.56
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to score first 73.4% 75.2% 1.33
Dynamo Makhachkala to score first 15.4% 16.9% 5.92
No goal scored 11.2% 9.7% 10.29
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 71.6% 62.5% 47.3% 1.32× 1.60
Both teams to score 28.4% 37.5% 52.7% 0.71× 2.66
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 52.0% 47.1% 37.1% 1.27× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 19.9% 21.7% 37.8% 0.58× 4.61
Not both score & over 2.5 19.6% 21.7% 10.4% 2.09× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 8.5% 8.3% 15.1% 0.55× 11.99
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 96.7% 91.7% 86.9% 1.05× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 3.3% 8.3% 13.1% 0.64× 12.04
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 85.9% 86.2% 1.16
Both teams to score in 2nd half 14.1% 13.8% 7.27
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 78.8% 76.9% 1.30
Both score 2nd half only 13.0% 10.7% 9.32
Both score 1st half only 7.1% 6.8% 14.78
Both score in both halves 1.1% 4.9% 20.55
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 91.8% 92.0% 1.09
Both teams to score by HT 8.2% 8.0% 12.49
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 54.6% 53.5% 1.87
A goal in each half 45.4% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.6% 47.3% 48.0% 0.99× 2.11
0-1 goals 33.0% 30.8% 25.5% 1.21× 3.25
4-6 goals 18.5% 20.3% 25.3% 0.80× 4.93
7+ goals 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.12× 54.81
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala to score exactly 0 67.4% 59.8% 32.7% 1.83× 1.67
Dynamo Makhachkala to score exactly 1 26.6% 27.4% 37.8% 0.73× 3.65
Dynamo Makhachkala to score exactly 2 5.2% 8.5% 18.8% 0.45× 11.74
Dynamo Makhachkala to score 3+ 0.8% 4.5% 11.2% 0.40× 22.20
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to score exactly 1 28.8% 26.5% 35.3% 0.75× 3.77
Zenit St Petersburg to score 3+ 28.9% 26.5% 18.8% 1.41× 3.77
Zenit St Petersburg to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 24.3% 1.09× 3.77
Zenit St Petersburg to score exactly 0 15.4% 18.9% 22.0% 0.86× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg leading at HT 49.8% 52.5% 1.91
Draw at HT 43.5% 43.1% 2.32
Dynamo Makhachkala leading at HT 6.8% 9.4% 10.60
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg -1: 1 46.0% 46.8% 2.14
Zenit St Petersburg -1: 2 27.3% 26.6% 3.77
Zenit St Petersburg -1: X 26.7% 26.6% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (0:1) 46.0% 45.9% 22.7% 2.03× 2.18
Dynamo Makhachkala (0:1) 27.3% 27.0% 55.9% 0.48× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 26.7% 27.0% 21.6% 1.25× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala (0:2) 54.0% 58.6% 77.3% 0.76× 1.71
Draw (0:2) 23.1% 20.4% 12.4% 1.63× 4.91
Zenit St Petersburg (0:2) 22.9% 20.3% 10.4% 1.95× 4.92
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala (0:3) 77.1% 80.4% 89.6% 0.90× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 13.6% 10.0% 5.9% 1.69× 10.00
Zenit St Petersburg (0:3) 9.3% 5.8% 4.7% 1.24× 17.25
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala (0:4) 90.7% 94.7% 95.3% 0.99× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 6.1% 4.6% 3.7% 1.25× 21.72
Zenit St Petersburg (0:4) 3.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.98× 83.38
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (1:0) 93.9% 92.6% 71.8% 1.29× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 5.0% 3.3% 16.9% 0.19× 30.65
Dynamo Makhachkala (1:0) 1.2% 3.2% 11.4% 0.28× 31.25
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg (2:0) 98.8% 96.9% 88.6% 1.09× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.0% 2.3% 7.3% 0.31× 43.79
Dynamo Makhachkala (2:0) 0.1% 2.3% 4.3% 0.53× 43.84
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.7% 48.6% 2.06
Halves equal 29.3% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 27.0% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg clean sheet 67.4% 66.6% 32.7% 2.04× 1.50
Zenit St Petersburg to concede 32.6% 33.4% 67.3% 0.50× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg clean sheet in 1st half 85.4% 85.4% 1.17
Zenit St Petersburg to concede in 1st half 14.6% 14.6% 6.86
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg clean sheet in 2nd half 78.9% 83.9% 1.19
Zenit St Petersburg to concede in 2nd half 21.1% 16.1% 6.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg over 2.5 corners 89.8% 86.3% 1.16
Zenit St Petersburg over 3.5 corners 79.4% 76.6% 1.31
Zenit St Petersburg over 4.5 corners 66.2% 66.7% 1.50
Zenit St Petersburg under 6.5 corners 61.4% 62.2% 1.61
Zenit St Petersburg over 5.5 corners 52.0% 52.6% 1.90
Zenit St Petersburg under 5.5 corners 48.0% 47.4% 2.11
Zenit St Petersburg over 6.5 corners 38.6% 37.8% 2.65
Zenit St Petersburg under 4.5 corners 33.8% 33.3% 3.01
Zenit St Petersburg under 3.5 corners 20.7% 23.4% 4.27
Zenit St Petersburg under 2.5 corners 10.2% 13.7% 7.32
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg under 3.5 goals 87.9% 87.2% 92.7% 0.94× 1.15
Zenit St Petersburg over 0.5 goals 84.6% 82.1% 78.0% 1.05× 1.22
Zenit St Petersburg under 2.5 goals 71.1% 74.2% 81.2% 0.91× 1.35
Zenit St Petersburg over 1.5 goals 55.8% 58.8% 42.9% 1.37× 1.70
Zenit St Petersburg under 1.5 goals 44.2% 41.2% 57.1% 0.72× 2.43
Zenit St Petersburg over 2.5 goals 28.9% 25.8% 18.8% 1.37× 3.88
Zenit St Petersburg under 0.5 goals 15.4% 17.9% 22.0% 0.81× 5.59
Zenit St Petersburg over 3.5 goals 12.1% 12.8% 7.3% 1.74× 7.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg under 1.5 in 1st half 80.7% 84.1% 1.19
Zenit St Petersburg over 0.5 in 1st half 55.3% 58.0% 1.72
Zenit St Petersburg under 0.5 in 1st half 44.7% 42.0% 2.38
Zenit St Petersburg over 1.5 in 1st half 19.3% 15.9% 6.29
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg scores more in 2nd half 41.2% 42.4% 2.36
Zenit St Petersburg scores equally in both 31.7% 32.8% 3.05
Zenit St Petersburg scores more in 1st half 27.1% 28.0% 3.57
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 77.6% 78.5% 49.8% 1.58× 1.27
Dynamo Makhachkala (home no bet) 22.4% 21.5% 50.2% 0.43× 4.66
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg even goals 51.2% 50.6% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Zenit St Petersburg odd goals 48.8% 49.4% 49.6% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.3% 38.8% 2.58
HT 1-0 30.6% 32.2% 3.11
HT 2-0 12.4% 10.9% 9.16
HT 0-1 5.9% 7.1% 14.04
HT 1-1 5.0% 2.3% 43.34
Any other HT score 4.9% 2.3% 43.35
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.3% 43.56
HT 0-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.67
HT 1-2 0.4% 2.3% 43.68
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.3% 43.69
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg at HT / Zenit St Petersburg at FT 46.8% 44.5% 2.25
Draw at HT / Zenit St Petersburg at FT 24.3% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.1% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Dynamo Makhachkala at FT 3.0% 3.5% 28.80
Dynamo Makhachkala at HT / Dynamo Makhachkala at FT 2.8% 3.5% 28.81
Zenit St Petersburg at HT / Draw at FT 2.7% 3.5% 28.82
Dynamo Makhachkala at HT / Draw at FT 2.4% 3.5% 28.83
Dynamo Makhachkala at HT / Zenit St Petersburg at FT 1.6% 3.5% 28.86
Zenit St Petersburg at HT / Dynamo Makhachkala at FT 0.3% 3.5% 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg to score last 73.6% 72.8% 1.37
Dynamo Makhachkala to score last 15.2% 11.5% 8.71
No goal scored 11.2% 9.1% 10.98
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.8% 90.9% 1.10
Zenit St Petersburg to lead by 1 at any time 78.6% 78.3% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.3% 50.8% 1.97
Zenit St Petersburg to lead by 2 at any time 49.2% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 24.5% 19.6% 5.09
Zenit St Petersburg to lead by 3 at any time 24.3% 19.6% 5.09
Dynamo Makhachkala to lead by 1 at any time 16.2% 14.9% 6.73
Dynamo Makhachkala to lead by 2 at any time 2.2% 1.6% 62.23
Dynamo Makhachkala to lead by 3 at any time 0.2% 1.6% 64.24
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg most corners 72.2% 70.6% 1.42
Dynamo Makhachkala most corners 18.6% 19.1% 5.25
Corners level 9.2% 8.4% 11.90
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.0% 87.4% 87.6% 1.00× 1.15
1-4 goals 80.8% 83.4% 79.6% 1.05× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.4% 68.9% 66.1% 1.04× 1.45
2-6 goals 66.1% 68.9% 73.1% 0.94× 1.45
2-5 goals 64.2% 63.4% 69.4% 0.91× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.0% 59.1% 61.4% 0.96× 1.69
1-2 goals 49.3% 48.6% 44.9% 1.08× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.6% 48.6% 48.0% 1.01× 2.06
3-6 goals 38.7% 39.2% 46.5% 0.84× 2.55
3-5 goals 36.7% 39.2% 42.9% 0.91× 2.55
3-4 goals 31.5% 35.3% 34.9% 1.01× 2.83
4-6 goals 18.5% 18.7% 25.3% 0.74× 5.34
4-5 goals 16.6% 18.7% 21.6% 0.87× 5.34
5-6 goals 7.1% 8.8% 11.8% 0.75× 11.32
7+ goals 0.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.56× 39.20
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg never behind 72.6% 77.2% 1.30
Dynamo Makhachkala never behind 10.2% 12.3% 8.10
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.8% 50.8% 48.8% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.2% 49.2% 51.2% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.6% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.4% 42.5% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.3% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.7% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.2% 95.4% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.0% 92.2% 86.7% 1.06× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.8% 87.6% 92.7% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 80.6% 82.3% 73.3% 1.12× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 67.0% 66.2% 74.5% 0.89× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 60.5% 61.7% 52.0% 1.19× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 39.5% 38.3% 48.0% 0.80× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 33.0% 33.8% 25.5% 1.32× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 19.4% 17.7% 26.7% 0.66× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 11.2% 12.4% 7.3% 1.69× 8.08
Over 4.5 goals 8.0% 7.8% 13.3% 0.59× 12.87
Over 5.5 goals 2.8% 4.6% 5.3% 0.86× 21.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.1% 97.2% 98.3% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.0% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.0% 92.4% 84.7% 1.09× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 75.7% 75.8% 66.1% 1.15× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 54.5% 52.0% 65.3% 0.80× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 45.5% 48.0% 34.7% 1.38× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 24.3% 24.2% 33.9% 0.71× 4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.0% 7.6% 15.3% 0.50× 13.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.0% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 35.84
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.9% 2.8% 1.7% 1.64× 35.90
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.6% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.8% 71.3% 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.7% 63.5% 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.3% 36.5% 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.2% 28.7% 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.4% 7.3% 13.74
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 85.6% 85.3% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.6% 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 62.3% 61.6% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 37.7% 38.4% 2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.4% 22.3% 4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 14.4% 14.7% 6.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala not to score in both halves 96.9% 97.1% 1.03
Zenit St Petersburg not to score in both halves 63.7% 63.5% 1.57
Zenit St Petersburg to score in both halves 36.3% 36.5% 2.74
Dynamo Makhachkala to score in both halves 3.1% 2.9% 34.20
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Zenit St Petersburg scores 56.2% 58.4% 25.5% 2.29× 1.71
Both teams score 28.4% 26.1% 52.7% 0.49× 3.84
Neither team scores 11.2% 11.0% 7.3% 1.49× 9.11
Only Dynamo Makhachkala scores 4.2% 4.7% 14.9% 0.31× 21.43
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.5% 24.9% 26.7% 0.93× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 21.8% 22.6% 18.4% 1.23× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.1% 22.6% 21.4% 1.05× 4.43
Exactly 0 goals 11.2% 12.1% 7.3% 1.64× 8.28
Exactly 4 goals 11.4% 12.1% 13.7% 0.88× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 5.2% 7.6% 8.2% 0.94× 13.09
6 or more goals 2.8% 4.5% 5.3% 0.84× 22.43
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 38.3% 37.1% 2.70
1 goal in 1st half 36.5% 37.1% 2.70
2 goals in 1st half 17.8% 15.3% 6.55
3+ goals in 1st half 7.4% 7.3% 13.74
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 37.7% 40.1% 2.49
1 goal in 2nd half 34.8% 33.4% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 27.4% 29.8% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala not to win both halves 99.4% 97.3% 1.03
Zenit St Petersburg not to win both halves 71.4% 72.5% 1.38
Zenit St Petersburg to win both halves 28.6% 27.5% 3.63
Dynamo Makhachkala to win both halves 0.6% 2.7% 37.08
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala to win neither half 85.9% 91.5% 1.09
Zenit St Petersburg to win either half 78.2% 79.8% 1.25
Zenit St Petersburg to win neither half 21.8% 20.2% 4.95
Dynamo Makhachkala to win either half 14.1% 8.5% 11.83
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dynamo Makhachkala not to win to nil 95.8% 96.0% 85.1% 1.13× 1.04
Zenit St Petersburg to win to nil 56.2% 59.0% 25.5% 2.31× 1.70
Zenit St Petersburg not to win to nil 43.8% 41.0% 74.5% 0.55× 2.44
Dynamo Makhachkala to win to nil 4.2% 4.0% 14.9% 0.27× 25.20
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Zenit St Petersburg by 1 26.7% 27.9% 21.6% 1.29× 3.59
Zenit St Petersburg by 2 23.1% 24.2% 12.4% 1.94× 4.14
Zenit St Petersburg by 3+ 22.9% 24.2% 10.4% 2.32× 4.14
Draw 21.2% 24.2% 28.0% 0.86× 4.14
Dynamo Makhachkala by 1 5.0% 2.7% 16.9% 0.16× 36.60
Dynamo Makhachkala by 2 1.0% 2.7% 7.3% 0.37× 36.72
Dynamo Makhachkala by 3+ 0.1% 2.7% 4.3% 0.63× 36.75
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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