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St Johnstone v Celtic — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
St Johnstone win
11.0%
model 14.8%
Draw
19.6%
model 18.6%
Celtic win
69.4%
model 66.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (160 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-2 9.8%
  2. 1-2 9.8%
  3. 1-1 8.5%
  4. 0-1 8.5%
  5. 0-3 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.563.9% Under 2.536.1%
BTTS yes56.7% BTTS no43.3%
St Johnstone 1+63.0% St Johnstone 2+26.2%
Celtic 1+90.0% Celtic 2+66.9%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
81/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Celtic (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 31%
69.1% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 1062 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 393 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1355.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Celtic have an estimated 69.4% win probability, against 19.6% for the draw and 11.0% for St Johnstone. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.99 for St Johnstone and 2.30 for Celtic.

Why St Johnstone

Nothing in the data singles out St Johnstone.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.6%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Celtic can win

Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1355. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for St Johnstone, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Celtic, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

St Johnstone: 54% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Celtic: 64% possession, 22.2 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Celtic are the model's most likely outcome at 69.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 9.8%. Confidence 81/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

No channel's listings name this match. That is the guide being silent rather than the match being off — most listings say "Live: Premier League" or the name of a studio show, not who is playing. Open the 333 sports channels →

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.99–2.30 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.85–2.46 0-2 11% 64% 52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 66.6% 67.8% 30.9% 2.19× 1.48
Draw 18.6% 19.1% 23.4% 0.81× 5.24
St Johnstone to win 14.8% 10.7% 45.9% 0.23× 9.31
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & both teams score 33.3% 33.0% 16.4% 2.02× 3.03
Celtic & not both score 33.3% 33.0% 14.7% 2.24× 3.03
Draw & both teams score 14.8% 12.1% 17.8% 0.68× 8.23
St Johnstone & both teams score 8.6% 7.3% 18.7% 0.39× 13.68
St Johnstone & not both score 6.3% 7.3% 27.4% 0.27× 13.73
Draw & not both score 3.8% 3.6% 5.8% 0.63× 27.53
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & over 1.5 58.1% 56.7% 24.5% 2.31× 1.77
Celtic & over 2.5 48.3% 46.8% 20.5% 2.28× 2.14
Celtic & under 3.5 35.6% 37.6% 22.4% 1.68× 2.66
Celtic & over 3.5 31.0% 33.0% 8.7% 3.79× 3.03
Celtic & under 2.5 18.3% 17.6% 10.6% 1.66× 5.68
Draw & over 1.5 14.8% 12.7% 17.8% 0.71× 7.87
Draw & under 2.5 12.3% 12.7% 14.9% 0.85× 7.88
Draw & under 3.5 12.3% 12.7% 14.9% 0.85× 7.88
St Johnstone & over 1.5 11.2% 12.7% 36.7% 0.35× 7.88
St Johnstone & under 3.5 10.3% 12.7% 30.1% 0.42× 7.88
St Johnstone & over 2.5 9.4% 7.5% 28.2% 0.27× 13.33
Celtic & under 1.5 8.5% 7.5% 6.6% 1.13× 13.33
Draw & over 2.5 6.3% 7.5% 8.7% 0.86× 13.35
Draw & over 3.5 6.3% 7.5% 8.7% 0.86× 13.35
St Johnstone & under 2.5 5.5% 7.5% 17.8% 0.42× 13.35
St Johnstone & over 3.5 4.5% 4.5% 16.0% 0.28× 22.30
Draw & under 1.5 3.8% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.33
St Johnstone & under 1.5 3.6% 4.5% 9.3% 0.48× 22.34
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1UP) 78.3% 80.1% 1.25
St Johnstone (1UP) 33.8% 32.7% 3.06
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2UP) 66.6% 68.4% 1.46
St Johnstone (2UP) 14.8% 14.4% 6.97
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 2nd half 56.9% 62.4% 1.60
2nd half drawn 27.9% 27.5% 3.63
St Johnstone to win 2nd half 15.2% 19.9% 5.02
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.8% 78.3% 1.28
Celtic under 1.5 in 2nd half 59.9% 56.5% 1.77
Celtic over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.1% 43.5% 2.30
Celtic under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.2% 21.7% 4.60
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 2nd half 88.9% 87.9% 1.14
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 2nd half 56.8% 58.8% 1.70
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 2nd half 43.2% 41.2% 2.43
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 2nd half 11.1% 12.1% 8.27
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (+2.5) 98.7% 97.2% 87.8% 1.11× 1.03
Celtic (+1.5) 95.0% 92.4% 73.4% 1.26× 1.08
Celtic (+0.5) 85.2% 89.0% 54.1% 1.64× 1.12
Celtic (-0.5) 66.6% 69.1% 30.9% 2.24× 1.45
St Johnstone (+0.5) 33.4% 30.9% 69.1% 0.45× 3.24
St Johnstone (-0.5) 14.8% 11.0% 45.9% 0.24× 9.06
St Johnstone (-1.5) 5.0% 7.6% 26.6% 0.29× 13.18
St Johnstone (-2.5) 1.3% 2.8% 12.2% 0.23× 36.14
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to concede 63.0% 63.8% 79.7% 0.80× 1.57
Celtic clean sheet 37.0% 36.2% 20.3% 1.78× 2.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 1st half 65.2% 68.0% 1.47
Celtic to concede in 1st half 34.8% 32.0% 3.13
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 2nd half 56.8% 59.1% 1.69
Celtic to concede in 2nd half 43.2% 40.9% 2.45
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 2.5 corners 92.4% 90.0% 1.11
Celtic over 3.5 corners 84.0% 81.4% 1.23
Celtic over 4.5 corners 72.7% 71.6% 1.40
Celtic over 5.5 corners 59.7% 57.1% 1.75
Celtic under 6.5 corners 53.3% 53.1% 1.89
Celtic over 6.5 corners 46.7% 46.9% 2.13
Celtic under 5.5 corners 40.3% 42.9% 2.33
Celtic under 4.5 corners 27.3% 28.4% 3.52
Celtic under 3.5 corners 16.0% 18.6% 5.37
Celtic under 2.5 corners 7.6% 10.0% 9.95
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 goals 90.0% 89.2% 67.0% 1.33× 1.12
Celtic under 3.5 goals 80.0% 75.5% 96.3% 0.78× 1.33
Celtic over 1.5 goals 66.9% 67.3% 36.9% 1.82× 1.49
Celtic under 2.5 goals 59.7% 57.9% 85.5% 0.68× 1.73
Celtic over 2.5 goals 40.3% 42.1% 14.5% 2.90× 2.38
Celtic under 1.5 goals 33.1% 32.7% 63.1% 0.52× 3.06
Celtic over 3.5 goals 20.0% 24.5% 3.7% 6.56× 4.08
Celtic under 0.5 goals 10.0% 10.8% 33.0% 0.33× 9.27
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic under 1.5 in 1st half 76.5% 78.9% 1.27
Celtic over 0.5 in 1st half 60.1% 63.3% 1.58
Celtic under 0.5 in 1st half 39.9% 36.7% 2.73
Celtic over 1.5 in 1st half 23.5% 21.1% 4.74
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic scores more in 2nd half 47.5% 46.8% 2.14
Celtic scores equally in both 27.4% 27.5% 3.63
Celtic scores more in 1st half 25.1% 27.4% 3.65
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 55.6% 59.1% 33.8% 1.75× 1.69
St Johnstone (away no bet) 44.4% 40.9% 66.2% 0.62× 2.44
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic even goals 50.5% 52.2% 57.7% 0.90× 1.92
Celtic odd goals 49.5% 47.8% 42.3% 1.13× 2.09
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.4% 79.7% 1.26
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.6% 20.3% 4.92
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 74.3% 71.6% 1.40
Both halves under 1.5 goals 25.7% 28.4% 3.52
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 68.6% 65.1% 1.54
Celtic to score 2+ in a row 59.1% 59.4% 1.68
Either team to score 3+ in a row 33.1% 33.9% 2.95
Celtic to score 3+ in a row 30.1% 33.8% 2.96
St Johnstone to score 2+ in a row 16.7% 17.8% 5.62
St Johnstone to score 3+ in a row 3.4% 3.4% 29.53
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic corners (+3.5) 94.6% 89.6% 1.12
Celtic corners (+2.5) 91.0% 89.6% 1.12
Celtic corners (+1.5) 85.7% 84.5% 1.18
St Johnstone corners (+3.5) 61.4% 61.8% 1.62
Celtic corners (-1.5) 59.6% 57.1% 1.75
St Johnstone corners (+2.5) 51.1% 52.5% 1.91
Celtic corners (-2.5) 48.9% 47.5% 2.10
St Johnstone corners (+1.5) 40.4% 42.9% 2.33
Celtic corners (-3.5) 38.6% 38.2% 2.62
St Johnstone corners (-1.5) 14.3% 15.5% 6.45
St Johnstone corners (-2.5) 9.0% 10.4% 9.57
St Johnstone corners (-3.5) 5.4% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 38.2% 34.0% 2.94
0-8 corners 31.2% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 30.6% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 78.2% 76.6% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 70.6% 72.6% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 68.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 61.8% 63.3% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 58.5% 57.9% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 51.9% 53.2% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 48.1% 46.8% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 41.5% 42.1% 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 38.2% 36.7% 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 31.2% 32.3% 3.10
Over 12.5 corners 29.4% 27.4% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 21.8% 23.4% 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-2 9.8% 7.3% 4.1% 1.75× 13.75
1-2 9.8% 7.3% 8.9% 0.82× 13.75
0-1 8.5% 7.3% 6.6% 1.09× 13.76
1-1 8.5% 7.3% 9.3% 0.78× 13.76
Any other score 8.6% 7.3% 4.1% 1.75× 13.76
0-3 7.5% 7.3% 3.3% 2.19× 13.76
1-3 7.5% 7.3% 3.1% 2.33× 13.76
0-0 3.8% 1.8% 5.8% 0.31× 55.42
0-4 4.3% 1.8% 0.4% 4.35× 55.40
1-4 4.3% 1.8% 0.8% 2.18× 55.40
2-1 4.2% 1.8% 7.1% 0.26× 55.40
2-2 4.8% 1.8% 6.6% 0.27× 55.39
2-3 3.7% 1.8% 2.3% 0.79× 55.42
1-0 3.6% 1.8% 9.3% 0.19× 55.42
2-0 1.8% 1.8% 8.7% 0.21× 55.46
2-4 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 2.17× 55.46
3-1 1.4% 1.8% 5.6% 0.32× 55.47
3-2 1.6% 1.8% 2.9% 0.62× 55.47
3-3 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 0.79× 55.48
3-0 0.6% 1.8% 5.6% 0.32× 55.49
3-4 0.7% 1.8% 0.4% 4.34× 55.49
4-0 0.2% 1.8% 3.5% 0.51× 55.50
4-1 0.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.24× 55.50
4-2 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 2.90× 55.50
4-3 0.3% 1.8% 0.8% 2.17× 55.50
4-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 8.68× 55.50
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2nd half DNB) 78.9% 73.4% 1.36
St Johnstone (2nd half DNB) 21.1% 26.6% 3.76
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT (DNB) 73.6% 73.7% 1.36
St Johnstone leading at HT (DNB) 26.4% 26.3% 3.81
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (X2) 85.2% 89.3% 54.1% 1.65× 1.12
St Johnstone or Celtic (12) 81.4% 80.9% 76.6% 1.06× 1.24
St Johnstone or draw (1X) 33.4% 32.2% 69.1% 0.47× 3.11
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw at HT 83.5% 81.8% 1.22
St Johnstone or Celtic at HT 62.7% 63.2% 1.58
St Johnstone or draw at HT 53.8% 52.2% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (1UP) 85.2% 92.4% 1.08
St Johnstone or draw (1UP) 33.8% 37.6% 2.66
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw in 2nd half 84.8% 80.1% 1.25
St Johnstone or Celtic in 2nd half 72.1% 72.5% 1.38
St Johnstone or draw in 2nd half 43.1% 37.6% 2.66
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.7% 52.4% 1.91
Neither half drawn 45.3% 47.6% 2.10
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (DNB) 81.8% 81.1% 40.3% 2.01× 1.23
St Johnstone (DNB) 18.2% 18.9% 59.7% 0.32× 5.28
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score first 67.2% 71.2% 1.41
St Johnstone to score first 29.0% 24.9% 4.02
No goal scored 3.8% 4.0% 24.93
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 56.7% 56.5% 52.5% 1.08× 1.77
Not both teams to score 43.3% 43.5% 47.5% 0.92× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.2% 45.6% 43.4% 1.05× 2.19
Not both score & under 2.5 27.6% 31.4% 33.8% 0.93× 3.19
Not both score & over 2.5 15.7% 17.5% 13.9% 1.26× 5.71
Both score & under 2.5 8.5% 8.7% 9.3% 0.93× 11.54
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.5% 81.0% 83.8% 0.97× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 17.5% 19.0% 16.2% 1.18× 5.26
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 67.6% 69.4% 1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half 32.4% 30.6% 3.27
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 53.5% 54.8% 1.82
Both score 2nd half only 25.6% 24.6% 4.06
Both score 1st half only 14.2% 11.6% 8.62
Both score in both halves 6.8% 6.4% 15.62
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.1% 79.9% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 20.9% 20.1% 4.98
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.4% 63.1% 1.58
A half without a goal 36.6% 36.9% 2.71
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.3% 43.1% 45.9% 0.94× 2.32
4-6 goals 36.8% 35.4% 31.3% 1.13× 2.83
0-1 goals 15.9% 20.6% 21.4% 0.96× 4.87
7+ goals 5.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 50.75
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score 3+ 40.3% 41.1% 14.5% 2.83× 2.44
Celtic to score exactly 2 26.5% 27.0% 22.6% 1.20× 3.70
Celtic to score exactly 1 23.1% 24.1% 30.3% 0.80× 4.15
Celtic to score exactly 0 10.0% 13.3% 33.0% 0.40× 7.54
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to score exactly 0 37.0% 36.2% 20.3% 1.78× 2.77
St Johnstone to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.2% 31.1% 1.16× 2.77
St Johnstone to score exactly 2 18.3% 18.5% 25.1% 0.74× 5.40
St Johnstone to score 3+ 7.9% 8.0% 23.9% 0.33× 12.52
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT 46.2% 47.8% 2.09
Draw at HT 37.3% 36.8% 2.72
St Johnstone leading at HT 16.5% 18.2% 5.48
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic -1: 2 43.8% 42.8% 2.33
Celtic -1: 1 33.4% 32.2% 3.11
Celtic -1: X 22.8% 24.0% 4.17
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:1) 85.2% 88.9% 54.1% 1.64× 1.12
Draw (0:1) 9.8% 8.7% 19.5% 0.44× 11.54
St Johnstone (0:1) 5.0% 8.3% 26.6% 0.31× 12.07
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:2) 95.0% 91.7% 73.4% 1.25× 1.09
Draw (0:2) 3.7% 3.0% 14.5% 0.21× 33.10
St Johnstone (0:2) 1.3% 2.9% 12.2% 0.24× 34.03
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:3) 98.7% 97.2% 87.8% 1.11× 1.03
Draw (0:3) 1.0% 2.3% 6.8% 0.33× 43.61
St Johnstone (0:3) 0.3% 2.3% 5.6% 0.41× 43.78
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:4) 99.7% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 82.02
St Johnstone (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.17× 82.12
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1:0) 43.8% 44.0% 13.5% 3.26× 2.28
St Johnstone (1:0) 33.4% 27.7% 69.1% 0.40× 3.61
Draw (1:0) 22.8% 22.9% 17.6% 1.30× 4.37
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (2:0) 56.2% 52.2% 86.5% 0.60× 1.92
Celtic (2:0) 24.0% 22.0% 6.0% 3.65× 4.55
Draw (2:0) 19.8% 15.2% 7.7% 1.98× 6.57
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.4% 50.6% 1.98
1st half highest scoring 26.5% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 22.1% 23.1% 4.33
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede 90.0% 89.3% 67.0% 1.33× 1.12
St Johnstone clean sheet 10.0% 10.7% 33.0% 0.32× 9.36
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 1st half 60.1% 63.1% 1.58
St Johnstone clean sheet in 1st half 39.9% 36.9% 2.71
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 2nd half 74.8% 79.2% 1.26
St Johnstone clean sheet in 2nd half 25.2% 20.8% 4.82
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 6.5 corners 85.8% 86.3% 1.16
St Johnstone under 5.5 corners 75.9% 76.6% 1.31
St Johnstone over 2.5 corners 72.9% 71.9% 1.39
St Johnstone under 4.5 corners 62.1% 62.2% 1.61
St Johnstone over 3.5 corners 54.9% 52.6% 1.90
St Johnstone under 3.5 corners 45.1% 47.4% 2.11
St Johnstone over 4.5 corners 37.9% 37.8% 2.65
St Johnstone under 2.5 corners 27.1% 28.1% 3.56
St Johnstone over 5.5 corners 24.1% 23.4% 4.27
St Johnstone over 6.5 corners 14.2% 13.7% 7.31
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 3.5 goals 98.1% 97.8% 92.1% 1.06× 1.02
St Johnstone under 2.5 goals 92.1% 92.2% 76.1% 1.21× 1.09
St Johnstone under 1.5 goals 73.8% 72.8% 51.2% 1.42× 1.37
St Johnstone over 0.5 goals 63.0% 62.8% 79.7% 0.79× 1.59
St Johnstone under 0.5 goals 37.0% 37.2% 20.3% 1.83× 2.69
St Johnstone over 1.5 goals 26.2% 27.2% 48.8% 0.56× 3.68
St Johnstone over 2.5 goals 7.9% 7.8% 23.9% 0.33× 12.80
St Johnstone over 3.5 goals 1.9% 2.2% 7.9% 0.28× 45.13
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 1st half 93.1% 93.2% 1.07
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 1st half 65.2% 68.7% 1.46
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 1st half 34.8% 31.3% 3.20
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 1st half 6.9% 6.8% 14.63
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone scores equally in both 46.6% 49.7% 2.01
St Johnstone scores more in 2nd half 31.4% 31.5% 3.17
St Johnstone scores more in 1st half 22.0% 22.4% 4.47
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (home no bet) 78.2% 78.7% 56.9% 1.38× 1.27
Draw (home no bet) 21.8% 21.3% 43.1% 0.49× 4.70
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone even goals 56.9% 58.0% 51.7% 1.12× 1.72
St Johnstone odd goals 43.1% 42.0% 48.3% 0.87× 2.38
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 26.0% 28.0% 3.57
HT 0-1 23.9% 22.7% 4.41
HT 1-0 11.1% 11.2% 8.95
HT 0-2 11.0% 11.2% 8.95
HT 1-1 10.2% 11.2% 8.96
Any other HT score 7.5% 7.7% 13.00
HT 1-2 4.7% 2.5% 39.73
HT 2-0 2.4% 2.5% 39.86
HT 2-1 2.2% 2.5% 39.88
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.5% 39.94
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic at HT / Celtic at FT 41.3% 42.1% 2.37
Draw at HT / Celtic at FT 21.2% 21.4% 4.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.4% 11.9% 8.39
St Johnstone at HT / St Johnstone at FT 8.1% 6.6% 15.20
Draw at HT / St Johnstone at FT 5.7% 6.6% 15.26
St Johnstone at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.4% 29.32
St Johnstone at HT / Celtic at FT 4.1% 3.4% 29.33
Celtic at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.4% 29.34
Celtic at HT / St Johnstone at FT 1.1% 3.4% 29.46
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score last 67.2% 68.3% 1.47
St Johnstone to score last 29.0% 31.8% 3.15
No goal scored 3.8% 4.0% 24.93
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.2% 96.0% 1.04
Celtic to lead by 1 at any time 78.3% 78.8% 1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 60.1% 64.3% 1.56
Celtic to lead by 2 at any time 50.9% 50.9% 1.96
St Johnstone to lead by 1 at any time 33.8% 31.9% 3.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 29.8% 26.2% 3.81
Celtic to lead by 3 at any time 27.6% 26.1% 3.83
St Johnstone to lead by 2 at any time 9.5% 7.1% 14.11
St Johnstone to lead by 3 at any time 2.2% 2.6% 38.47
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic most corners 69.7% 64.7% 1.55
St Johnstone most corners 21.4% 25.8% 3.88
Corners level 8.9% 8.4% 11.90
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.7% 81.6% 86.9% 0.94× 1.23
2-6 goals 79.1% 78.9% 77.0% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 72.7% 73.6% 79.7% 0.92× 1.36
2-5 goals 72.5% 73.6% 71.4% 1.03× 1.36
2-4 goals 60.5% 62.2% 64.1% 0.97× 1.61
3-6 goals 58.9% 58.9% 55.4% 1.06× 1.70
1-3 goals 54.5% 52.4% 61.4% 0.85× 1.91
3-5 goals 52.3% 52.4% 49.8% 1.05× 1.91
2-3 goals 42.3% 43.6% 45.9% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 42.5% 1.03× 2.29
4-6 goals 36.8% 38.9% 31.3% 1.24× 2.57
1-2 goals 32.4% 34.0% 37.3% 0.91× 2.94
4-5 goals 30.2% 34.0% 25.7% 1.32× 2.94
5-6 goals 18.6% 18.1% 13.1% 1.39× 5.51
7+ goals 5.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.10× 48.85
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic never behind 62.4% 69.4% 1.44
St Johnstone never behind 18.0% 20.2% 4.94
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.2% 48.5% 1.03× 1.99
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.8% 51.5% 0.97× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.4% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.6% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.1% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.9% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.2% 95.7% 94.2% 1.02× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.4% 88.8% 92.5% 0.96× 1.13
Over 1.5 goals 84.1% 81.0% 78.6% 1.03× 1.23
Under 4.5 goals 76.4% 78.1% 85.3% 0.92× 1.28
Over 2.5 goals 63.9% 61.7% 57.1% 1.08× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 58.2% 57.6% 67.0% 0.86× 1.74
Over 3.5 goals 41.8% 42.4% 33.0% 1.29× 2.36
Under 2.5 goals 36.1% 38.3% 42.9% 0.89× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 23.6% 21.9% 14.7% 1.49× 4.56
Under 1.5 goals 15.9% 19.0% 21.4% 0.89× 5.28
Over 5.5 goals 11.6% 11.2% 7.5% 1.50× 8.91
Under 0.5 goals 3.8% 4.3% 5.8% 0.75× 23.06
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.7% 92.9% 98.0% 0.95× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 86.9% 88.2% 91.9% 0.96× 1.13
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.1% 80.5% 72.8% 1.11× 1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 71.2% 72.1% 82.0% 0.88× 1.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 53.6% 53.0% 43.4% 1.22× 1.89
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 46.4% 47.0% 56.6% 0.83× 2.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 28.8% 27.9% 18.0% 1.55× 3.59
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.9% 19.5% 27.2% 0.72× 5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.1% 11.8% 8.1% 1.47× 8.47
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.3% 7.1% 2.0% 3.61× 14.02
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.6% 83.8% 1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.0% 72.5% 1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.0% 63.0% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.0% 37.0% 2.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.0% 27.5% 3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.4% 16.2% 6.17
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.7% 85.7% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 69.2% 68.6% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 57.9% 54.2% 1.85
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 42.1% 45.8% 2.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 30.8% 31.4% 3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.3% 14.3% 7.01
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to score in both halves 85.0% 81.7% 1.22
Celtic not to score in both halves 55.0% 59.4% 1.68
Celtic to score in both halves 45.0% 40.6% 2.46
St Johnstone to score in both halves 15.0% 18.3% 5.48
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 56.7% 57.7% 52.5% 1.10× 1.73
Only Celtic scores 33.3% 36.2% 14.7% 2.46× 2.76
Only St Johnstone scores 6.3% 6.6% 27.4% 0.24× 15.15
Neither team scores 3.8% 3.8% 5.8% 0.66× 26.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 21.6% 24.3% 0.89× 4.63
Exactly 2 goals 20.2% 21.6% 21.8% 0.99× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 18.2% 18.6% 18.5% 1.01× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 12.2% 12.3% 15.8% 0.78× 8.11
Exactly 5 goals 12.0% 12.3% 7.5% 1.65× 8.11
6 or more goals 11.6% 12.3% 7.5% 1.65× 8.11
Exactly 0 goals 3.8% 4.3% 5.8% 0.75× 23.05
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.0% 37.3% 2.68
No goals in 1st half 26.0% 27.5% 3.64
2 goals in 1st half 23.6% 21.6% 4.62
3+ goals in 1st half 15.4% 18.2% 5.48
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 57.9% 55.2% 1.81
1 goal in 2nd half 27.8% 28.5% 3.51
No goals in 2nd half 14.3% 13.1% 7.63
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to win both halves 97.5% 96.6% 1.04
Celtic not to win both halves 73.7% 73.9% 1.35
Celtic to win both halves 26.3% 26.1% 3.84
St Johnstone to win both halves 2.5% 3.4% 29.58
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win either half 76.8% 81.9% 1.22
St Johnstone to win neither half 70.8% 72.2% 1.39
St Johnstone to win either half 29.2% 27.8% 3.60
Celtic to win neither half 23.2% 18.1% 5.52
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to win to nil 93.7% 92.6% 72.6% 1.28× 1.08
Celtic not to win to nil 66.7% 64.5% 85.3% 0.76× 1.55
Celtic to win to nil 33.3% 35.5% 14.7% 2.41× 2.82
St Johnstone to win to nil 6.3% 7.4% 27.4% 0.27× 13.55
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic by 3+ 24.0% 23.9% 6.0% 3.97× 4.19
Celtic by 1 22.8% 23.9% 17.6% 1.35× 4.19
Celtic by 2 19.8% 17.1% 7.7% 2.23× 5.85
Draw 18.6% 17.1% 23.4% 0.73× 5.86
St Johnstone by 1 9.8% 7.1% 19.5% 0.36× 14.17
St Johnstone by 2 3.7% 2.8% 14.5% 0.20× 35.19
St Johnstone by 3+ 1.3% 2.8% 12.2% 0.23× 35.53
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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