Napoli v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 9 September 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyNapoli win
10.6%
model 11.6%
Draw
19.5%
model 18.8%
Arsenal win
69.8%
model 69.6%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (160 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 14.7%
- 0-2 14.2%
- 0-3 9.4%
- 1-2 9.2%
- 1-1 8.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.1% | Under 2.5 | 50.9% |
| BTTS yes | 40.6% | BTTS no | 59.4% |
| Napoli 1+ | 47.6% | Napoli 2+ | 13.8% |
| Arsenal 1+ | 86.4% | Arsenal 2+ | 59.2% |
Expected goals 0.65 – 1.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
87/100
Data quality
90/100
Model agreement
92%
★ Best pick
Arsenal (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 34%
69.2% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 1062 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 12.5 corners
Corners O/U
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 4288 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Arsenal carry the stronger rating, 1920 Elo against 1658.
- Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Arsenal have an estimated 69.8% win probability, against 19.5% for the draw and 10.6% for Napoli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.65 for Napoli and 1.99 for Arsenal.
Why Napoli
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Napoli average 1.52 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 19.5%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.
Why Arsenal can win
Arsenal carry the stronger rating, 1920 Elo against 1658. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.43), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.28). Arsenal's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bukayo Saka (0.50), Kai Havertz (0.45), Viktor Gyokeres (0.39).
Availability
2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Arsenal's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Napoli: 55% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces. Arsenal: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.50 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Arsenal are the model's most likely outcome at 69.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 14.7%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Live TV
No channel's listings name this match. That is the guide being silent rather than the match being off — most listings say "Live: Premier League" or the name of a studio show, not who is playing. Open the 333 sports channels →
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.65–1.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.42–2.13 | 0-2 18% | 47% | 30% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win | 69.6% | 68.4% | 33.9% | 2.02× | 1.46 |
| Draw | 18.8% | 19.1% | 15.8% | 1.21× | 5.23 |
| Napoli to win | 11.6% | 10.4% | 50.5% | 0.21× | 9.59 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal & not both score | 45.7% | 52.0% | 15.5% | 3.35× | 1.92 |
| Arsenal & both teams score | 23.9% | 22.7% | 18.7% | 1.22× | 4.40 |
| Draw & both teams score | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 1.11× | 8.25 |
| Napoli & not both score | 7.0% | 7.3% | 24.9% | 0.29× | 13.71 |
| Draw & not both score | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.41× | 13.72 |
| Napoli & both teams score | 4.6% | 3.7% | 25.9% | 0.14× | 27.26 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal & over 1.5 | 54.9% | 49.1% | 28.5% | 1.72× | 2.04 |
| Arsenal & under 3.5 | 47.5% | 46.8% | 19.2% | 2.44× | 2.14 |
| Arsenal & over 2.5 | 40.7% | 43.7% | 24.1% | 1.81× | 2.29 |
| Arsenal & under 2.5 | 28.9% | 25.6% | 10.1% | 2.53× | 3.91 |
| Arsenal & over 3.5 | 22.1% | 21.5% | 15.0% | 1.43× | 4.66 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 15.4% | 17.6% | 10.6% | 1.66× | 5.68 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 15.4% | 17.6% | 10.6% | 1.66× | 5.68 |
| Arsenal & under 1.5 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 5.7% | 2.23× | 7.87 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 12.1% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 1.17× | 7.88 |
| Napoli & under 3.5 | 9.9% | 7.5% | 26.9% | 0.28× | 13.33 |
| Napoli & over 1.5 | 6.5% | 7.5% | 42.2% | 0.18× | 13.34 |
| Napoli & under 2.5 | 6.6% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 0.51× | 13.34 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 1.45× | 13.34 |
| Napoli & under 1.5 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 0.88× | 13.35 |
| Napoli & over 2.5 | 5.0% | 4.5% | 36.0% | 0.12× | 22.28 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 0.82× | 22.35 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 0.82× | 22.35 |
| Napoli & over 3.5 | 1.7% | 4.5% | 23.8% | 0.19× | 22.43 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (1UP) | 77.9% | 80.1% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Napoli (1UP) | 25.5% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (2UP) | 69.6% | 69.1% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Napoli (2UP) | 11.6% | 13.9% | — | — | 7.17 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win 2nd half | 57.5% | 62.6% | — | — | 1.60 |
| 2nd half drawn | 30.9% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| Napoli to win 2nd half | 11.6% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.48 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal over 0.5 in 2nd half | 69.7% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Arsenal under 1.5 in 2nd half | 66.5% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Arsenal over 1.5 in 2nd half | 33.5% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.07 |
| Arsenal under 0.5 in 2nd half | 30.3% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half | 94.7% | 90.9% | — | — | 1.10 |
| Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half | 69.2% | 70.0% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half | 30.8% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.33 |
| Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half | 5.3% | 9.1% | — | — | 10.93 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (+2.5) | 99.5% | 97.3% | 81.9% | 1.19× | 1.03 |
| Arsenal (+1.5) | 97.2% | 97.2% | 68.9% | 1.41× | 1.03 |
| Arsenal (+0.5) | 88.4% | 89.1% | 49.5% | 1.80× | 1.12 |
| Arsenal (-0.5) | 69.6% | 69.2% | 33.9% | 2.04× | 1.45 |
| Napoli (+0.5) | 30.4% | 30.8% | 66.1% | 0.47× | 3.25 |
| Napoli (-0.5) | 11.6% | 10.9% | 50.5% | 0.22× | 9.14 |
| Napoli (-1.5) | 2.8% | 2.8% | 31.1% | 0.09× | 35.43 |
| Napoli (-2.5) | 0.5% | 2.7% | 18.1% | 0.15× | 36.56 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal clean sheet | 52.4% | 58.2% | 20.5% | 2.84× | 1.72 |
| Arsenal to concede | 47.6% | 41.8% | 79.5% | 0.53× | 2.39 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal clean sheet in 1st half | 75.7% | 79.3% | — | — | 1.26 |
| Arsenal to concede in 1st half | 24.3% | 20.7% | — | — | 4.84 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal clean sheet in 2nd half | 69.2% | 67.4% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Arsenal to concede in 2nd half | 30.8% | 32.6% | — | — | 3.07 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal under 6.5 corners | 85.0% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Arsenal under 5.5 corners | 76.1% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Arsenal over 2.5 corners | 68.7% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Arsenal under 4.5 corners | 63.9% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Arsenal over 3.5 corners | 51.6% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Arsenal under 3.5 corners | 48.4% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Arsenal over 4.5 corners | 36.1% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Arsenal under 2.5 corners | 31.3% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Arsenal over 5.5 corners | 23.9% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Arsenal over 6.5 corners | 15.0% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal over 0.5 goals | 86.4% | 89.1% | 70.2% | 1.27× | 1.12 |
| Arsenal under 3.5 goals | 85.9% | 89.1% | 92.2% | 0.97× | 1.12 |
| Arsenal under 2.5 goals | 67.9% | 67.3% | 78.8% | 0.85× | 1.49 |
| Arsenal over 1.5 goals | 59.2% | 57.9% | 40.7% | 1.42× | 1.73 |
| Arsenal under 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 42.1% | 59.3% | 0.71× | 2.38 |
| Arsenal over 2.5 goals | 32.1% | 32.7% | 21.2% | 1.54× | 3.06 |
| Arsenal over 3.5 goals | 14.1% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 1.41× | 9.14 |
| Arsenal under 0.5 goals | 13.7% | 10.9% | 29.8% | 0.37× | 9.15 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal under 1.5 in 1st half | 81.0% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Arsenal over 0.5 in 1st half | 54.9% | 51.1% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Arsenal under 0.5 in 1st half | 45.1% | 48.9% | — | — | 2.05 |
| Arsenal over 1.5 in 1st half | 19.0% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.24 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal scores more in 2nd half | 45.3% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Arsenal scores equally in both | 30.1% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Arsenal scores more in 1st half | 24.6% | 21.6% | — | — | 4.63 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (away no bet) | 61.9% | 58.3% | 23.8% | 2.45× | 1.71 |
| Napoli (away no bet) | 38.1% | 41.7% | 76.2% | 0.55× | 2.40 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal even goals | 50.9% | 52.2% | 54.4% | 0.96× | 1.92 |
| Arsenal odd goals | 49.1% | 47.8% | 45.6% | 1.05× | 2.09 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 86.5% | 86.4% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 13.5% | 13.6% | — | — | 7.35 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 61.7% | 66.1% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 59.4% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Arsenal to score 2+ in a row | 53.8% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 27.2% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Arsenal to score 3+ in a row | 26.0% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Napoli to score 2+ in a row | 8.8% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.57 |
| Napoli to score 3+ in a row | 1.3% | 3.3% | — | — | 30.09 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli corners (+3.5) | 87.7% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Napoli corners (+2.5) | 81.2% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Arsenal corners (+3.5) | 79.0% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Napoli corners (+1.5) | 72.7% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Arsenal corners (+2.5) | 70.4% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Arsenal corners (+1.5) | 60.2% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Napoli corners (-1.5) | 39.8% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Napoli corners (-2.5) | 29.6% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Arsenal corners (-1.5) | 27.3% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Napoli corners (-3.5) | 21.0% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Arsenal corners (-2.5) | 18.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
| Arsenal corners (-3.5) | 12.4% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 53.3% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.20 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.3% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 20.4% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.91 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 85.4% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.6% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.2% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 63.4% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 57.6% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 53.3% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 46.7% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 42.4% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36.6% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 27.8% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.65 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 20.4% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 14.6% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 14.7% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 2.04× | 8.60 |
| 0-2 | 14.2% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 2.49× | 8.60 |
| 0-3 | 9.4% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.87× | 13.76 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.28× | 13.76 |
| 1-1 | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.28× | 13.76 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.40× | 13.77 |
| 1-3 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 2.55× | 13.77 |
| 1-0 | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 0.85× | 13.77 |
| Any other score | 5.2% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 0.65× | 13.77 |
| 0-4 | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.16× | 55.39 |
| 1-4 | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.16× | 55.43 |
| 2-1 | 3.0% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 0.24× | 55.43 |
| 2-2 | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 0.46× | 55.43 |
| 2-0 | 1.5% | 1.8% | 6.5% | 0.28× | 55.47 |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 5.4% | 0.33× | 55.46 |
| 2-4 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.74× | 55.48 |
| 3-0 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 0.35× | 55.50 |
| 3-1 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 5.7% | 0.32× | 55.49 |
| 3-2 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 0.54× | 55.49 |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.16× | 55.50 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 3.48× | 55.50 |
| 4-0 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 0.53× | 55.51 |
| 4-1 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 0.58× | 55.51 |
| 4-2 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.39× | 55.51 |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.32× | 55.51 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 3.48× | 55.51 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (2nd half DNB) | 83.2% | 87.0% | — | — | 1.15 |
| Napoli (2nd half DNB) | 16.8% | 13.0% | — | — | 7.68 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal leading at HT (DNB) | 78.9% | 80.1% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Napoli leading at HT (DNB) | 21.1% | 19.9% | — | — | 5.02 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal or draw (X2) | 88.4% | 89.6% | 49.5% | 1.81× | 1.12 |
| Napoli or Arsenal (12) | 81.2% | 80.9% | 84.2% | 0.96× | 1.24 |
| Napoli or draw (1X) | 30.4% | 31.6% | 66.1% | 0.48× | 3.17 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal or draw at HT | 87.8% | 88.4% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Napoli or Arsenal at HT | 58.0% | 58.2% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Napoli or draw at HT | 54.2% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.92 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal or draw (1UP) | 88.4% | 92.8% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Napoli or draw (1UP) | 30.4% | 36.9% | — | — | 2.71 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal or draw in 2nd half | 88.4% | 89.5% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Napoli or Arsenal in 2nd half | 69.1% | 66.3% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Napoli or draw in 2nd half | 42.5% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.67 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 60.4% | 59.3% | — | — | 1.69 |
| Neither half drawn | 39.6% | 40.7% | — | — | 2.46 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (DNB) | 85.7% | 91.6% | 40.2% | 2.28× | 1.09 |
| Napoli (DNB) | 14.3% | 8.4% | 59.8% | 0.14× | 11.97 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to score first | 70.5% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Napoli to score first | 22.9% | 19.9% | — | — | 5.04 |
| No goal scored | 6.7% | 6.2% | — | — | 16.04 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 59.4% | 56.6% | 45.1% | 1.26× | 1.77 |
| Both teams to score | 40.6% | 43.4% | 54.9% | 0.79× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 42.2% | 42.3% | 29.5% | 1.43× | 2.36 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 31.9% | 34.2% | 49.5% | 0.69× | 2.92 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 17.2% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 1.12× | 5.66 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 1.52× | 11.54 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 91.9% | 88.9% | 80.6% | 1.10× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 8.1% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 0.57× | 9.04 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 78.7% | 74.1% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 21.3% | 25.9% | — | — | 3.87 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 68.3% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 18.5% | 18.2% | — | — | 5.49 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.4% | 11.5% | — | — | 8.67 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.9% | 4.9% | — | — | 20.61 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 86.7% | 85.5% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 13.3% | 14.5% | — | — | 6.89 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 51.8% | 54.6% | — | — | 1.83 |
| A half without a goal | 48.2% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.20 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.3% | 45.9% | 37.6% | 1.22× | 2.18 |
| 0-1 goals | 26.5% | 27.7% | 18.9% | 1.46× | 3.61 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.4% | 27.7% | 37.3% | 0.74× | 3.62 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 1.9% | 6.7% | 0.29× | 52.07 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to score 3+ | 32.1% | 33.1% | 21.2% | 1.56× | 3.03 |
| Arsenal to score exactly 1 | 27.2% | 27.1% | 29.8% | 0.91× | 3.70 |
| Arsenal to score exactly 2 | 27.1% | 27.1% | 19.7% | 1.37× | 3.70 |
| Arsenal to score exactly 0 | 13.7% | 13.4% | 29.8% | 0.45× | 7.46 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to score exactly 0 | 52.4% | 54.9% | 20.5% | 2.68× | 1.82 |
| Napoli to score exactly 1 | 33.9% | 30.5% | 25.4% | 1.20× | 3.28 |
| Napoli to score exactly 2 | 11.0% | 13.4% | 23.8% | 0.56× | 7.45 |
| Napoli to score 3+ | 2.8% | 2.5% | 30.8% | 0.08× | 39.32 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal leading at HT | 45.8% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Draw at HT | 42.0% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.39 |
| Napoli leading at HT | 12.2% | 11.6% | — | — | 8.62 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal -1: 2 | 43.5% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.34 |
| Arsenal -1: 1 | 30.4% | 31.9% | — | — | 3.13 |
| Arsenal -1: X | 26.1% | 27.0% | — | — | 3.70 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (0:1) | 88.4% | 90.2% | 49.5% | 1.82× | 1.11 |
| Draw (0:1) | 8.8% | 8.6% | 19.7% | 0.44× | 11.65 |
| Napoli (0:1) | 2.8% | 2.1% | 31.1% | 0.07× | 47.31 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (0:2) | 97.2% | 97.8% | 68.9% | 1.42× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:2) | 2.3% | 3.0% | 13.2% | 0.22× | 33.66 |
| Napoli (0:2) | 0.5% | 2.9% | 18.1% | 0.16× | 34.36 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (0:3) | 99.5% | 97.3% | 81.9% | 1.19× | 1.03 |
| Draw (0:3) | 0.4% | 2.3% | 9.1% | 0.25× | 43.74 |
| Napoli (0:3) | 0.1% | 2.3% | 9.3% | 0.24× | 43.82 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (0:4) | 99.9% | 98.1% | 90.7% | 1.08× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 0.1% | 1.2% | 5.7% | 0.21× | 82.11 |
| Napoli (0:4) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 0.31× | 82.14 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (1:0) | 43.5% | 43.9% | 17.4% | 2.53× | 2.28 |
| Draw (1:0) | 26.1% | 28.4% | 16.8% | 1.68× | 3.53 |
| Napoli (1:0) | 30.4% | 27.1% | 66.1% | 0.41× | 3.69 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli (2:0) | 56.5% | 52.3% | 82.6% | 0.63× | 1.91 |
| Arsenal (2:0) | 22.2% | 21.5% | 9.6% | 2.24× | 4.65 |
| Draw (2:0) | 21.3% | 21.3% | 8.0% | 2.65× | 4.70 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 49.0% | 48.7% | — | — | 2.05 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.4% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
| Halves equal | 24.5% | 23.2% | — | — | 4.31 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to concede | 86.4% | 88.5% | 70.2% | 1.26× | 1.13 |
| Napoli clean sheet | 13.7% | 11.5% | 29.8% | 0.39× | 8.70 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to concede in 1st half | 54.9% | 51.1% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Napoli clean sheet in 1st half | 45.1% | 48.9% | — | — | 2.05 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to concede in 2nd half | 69.7% | 64.5% | — | — | 1.55 |
| Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half | 30.3% | 35.5% | — | — | 2.81 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli under 6.5 corners | 77.6% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Napoli over 2.5 corners | 76.1% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Napoli under 5.5 corners | 67.2% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Napoli over 3.5 corners | 60.9% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Napoli under 4.5 corners | 54.1% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Napoli over 4.5 corners | 45.9% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Napoli under 3.5 corners | 39.1% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Napoli over 5.5 corners | 32.8% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Napoli under 2.5 corners | 23.9% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Napoli over 6.5 corners | 22.4% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli under 3.5 goals | 99.6% | 97.8% | 84.2% | 1.16× | 1.02 |
| Napoli under 2.5 goals | 97.2% | 97.8% | 69.2% | 1.41× | 1.02 |
| Napoli under 1.5 goals | 86.2% | 87.7% | 45.6% | 1.92× | 1.14 |
| Napoli under 0.5 goals | 52.4% | 53.0% | 20.5% | 2.59× | 1.89 |
| Napoli over 0.5 goals | 47.6% | 47.0% | 79.5% | 0.59× | 2.13 |
| Napoli over 1.5 goals | 13.8% | 12.3% | 54.4% | 0.23× | 8.16 |
| Napoli over 2.5 goals | 2.8% | 2.2% | 30.8% | 0.07× | 44.56 |
| Napoli over 3.5 goals | 0.4% | 2.2% | 15.8% | 0.14× | 46.01 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.8% | 96.9% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half | 75.7% | 78.9% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half | 24.3% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.74 |
| Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.2% | 3.1% | — | — | 31.95 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli scores equally in both | 57.9% | 60.2% | — | — | 1.66 |
| Napoli scores more in 2nd half | 24.5% | 22.5% | — | — | 4.45 |
| Napoli scores more in 1st half | 17.6% | 16.4% | — | — | 6.11 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (home no bet) | 78.7% | 78.9% | 68.2% | 1.16× | 1.27 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 21.3% | 21.1% | 31.8% | 0.66× | 4.74 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli even goals | 63.7% | 65.7% | 53.4% | 1.23× | 1.52 |
| Napoli odd goals | 36.3% | 34.3% | 46.6% | 0.74× | 2.92 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 34.0% | 30.5% | — | — | 3.28 |
| HT 0-1 | 27.3% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| HT 0-2 | 10.8% | 11.2% | — | — | 8.96 |
| HT 1-0 | 9.6% | 7.7% | — | — | 12.97 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.5% | 7.7% | — | — | 13.00 |
| Any other HT score | 5.0% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.72 |
| HT 1-2 | 3.0% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.83 |
| HT 2-0 | 1.3% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.92 |
| HT 2-1 | 1.1% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.94 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.4% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.98 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal at HT / Arsenal at FT | 42.2% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Draw at HT / Arsenal at FT | 24.5% | 21.5% | — | — | 4.66 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 12.4% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.38 |
| Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT | 5.9% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.25 |
| Draw at HT / Napoli at FT | 5.1% | 6.5% | — | — | 15.27 |
| Napoli at HT / Draw at FT | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.36 |
| Napoli at HT / Arsenal at FT | 2.9% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.38 |
| Arsenal at HT / Draw at FT | 3.0% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.38 |
| Arsenal at HT / Napoli at FT | 0.6% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.48 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to score last | 70.3% | 76.9% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Napoli to score last | 23.0% | 20.4% | — | — | 4.91 |
| No goal scored | 6.7% | 6.2% | — | — | 16.04 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 93.3% | 93.7% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Arsenal to lead by 1 at any time | 77.9% | 78.8% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 53.4% | 51.0% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Arsenal to lead by 2 at any time | 48.4% | 46.1% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Napoli to lead by 1 at any time | 25.5% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.84 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 25.3% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.84 |
| Arsenal to lead by 3 at any time | 24.4% | 19.9% | — | — | 5.03 |
| Napoli to lead by 2 at any time | 5.1% | 7.0% | — | — | 14.29 |
| Napoli to lead by 3 at any time | 0.8% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.92 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli most corners | 51.1% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Arsenal most corners | 37.6% | 39.2% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Corners level | 11.3% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 88.2% | 88.0% | 81.6% | 1.08× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 80.6% | 81.5% | 67.4% | 1.21× | 1.23 |
| 2-6 goals | 71.7% | 73.6% | 74.6% | 0.99× | 1.36 |
| 2-5 goals | 68.3% | 68.3% | 67.9% | 1.01× | 1.46 |
| 1-3 goals | 66.1% | 68.3% | 51.3% | 1.33× | 1.47 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.7% | 62.2% | 53.6% | 1.16× | 1.61 |
| 3-6 goals | 47.3% | 48.0% | 58.5% | 0.82× | 2.08 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.3% | 48.0% | 37.6% | 1.28× | 2.08 |
| 1-2 goals | 44.2% | 43.6% | 30.1% | 1.45× | 2.29 |
| 3-5 goals | 43.9% | 43.6% | 51.8% | 0.84× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 36.3% | 38.9% | 37.6% | 1.03× | 2.57 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.4% | 30.5% | 37.3% | 0.82× | 3.28 |
| 4-5 goals | 22.1% | 24.7% | 30.6% | 0.81× | 4.04 |
| 5-6 goals | 11.0% | 13.4% | 21.2% | 0.63× | 7.44 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 2.0% | 6.7% | 0.30× | 50.05 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal never behind | 67.9% | 74.6% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Napoli never behind | 15.4% | 19.9% | — | — | 5.02 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 49.3% | 50.2% | 45.3% | 1.11× | 1.99 |
| Odd number of goals | 50.7% | 49.8% | 54.7% | 0.91× | 2.01 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.7% | 55.2% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.3% | 44.8% | — | — | 2.23 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.9% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.1% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 94.8% | 93.0% | 86.5% | 1.07× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93.3% | 93.0% | 94.8% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 87.2% | 88.8% | 72.3% | 1.23× | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | 72.6% | 81.1% | 0.90× | 1.38 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72.8% | 72.6% | 56.2% | 1.29× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 53.5% | 35.0% | 1.53× | 1.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 46.5% | 65.0% | 0.72× | 2.15 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 27.4% | 43.8% | 0.63× | 3.65 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 27.4% | 18.9% | 1.45× | 3.65 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12.8% | 11.3% | 27.7% | 0.41× | 8.89 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 1.35× | 14.27 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 5.2% | 7.0% | 13.5% | 0.52× | 14.30 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.1% | 97.3% | 92.8% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 94.4% | 92.9% | 84.3% | 1.10× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 85.1% | 88.1% | 67.0% | 1.32× | 1.14 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 65.2% | 67.9% | 44.4% | 1.53× | 1.47 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 64.9% | 62.5% | 77.5% | 0.81× | 1.60 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 35.1% | 37.5% | 22.5% | 1.67× | 2.67 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 34.9% | 32.1% | 55.6% | 0.58× | 3.11 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 14.9% | 11.9% | 33.0% | 0.36× | 8.42 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 5.6% | 7.1% | 15.7% | 0.45× | 14.01 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.9% | 2.7% | 7.2% | 0.38× | 36.48 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 90.5% | 92.2% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 70.9% | 72.4% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 66.0% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 34.0% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 29.1% | 27.6% | — | — | 3.62 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 9.5% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.75 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 79.3% | 80.4% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 79.2% | 80.4% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 46.1% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 53.9% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 20.8% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.10 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 20.7% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.10 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli not to score in both halves | 92.5% | 90.2% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Arsenal not to score in both halves | 61.7% | 62.4% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Arsenal to score in both halves | 38.3% | 37.6% | — | — | 2.66 |
| Napoli to score in both halves | 7.5% | 9.8% | — | — | 10.22 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Only Arsenal scores | 45.7% | 49.1% | 15.5% | 3.16× | 2.04 |
| Both teams score | 40.6% | 45.9% | 54.9% | 0.84× | 2.18 |
| Only Napoli scores | 7.0% | 6.6% | 24.9% | 0.27× | 15.12 |
| Neither team scores | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 1.28× | 15.13 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 24.4% | 21.6% | 16.3% | 1.32× | 4.63 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.9% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 1.00× | 4.63 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 19.9% | 18.6% | 14.0% | 1.33× | 5.38 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 14.4% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.76× | 8.09 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 7.6% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 0.53× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.47× | 13.14 |
| 6 or more goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 0.56× | 13.16 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.9% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| No goals in 1st half | 34.0% | 32.6% | — | — | 3.07 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 19.6% | 18.4% | — | — | 5.44 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 9.5% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.75 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 46.1% | 50.8% | — | — | 1.97 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.1% | 33.1% | — | — | 3.02 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 20.8% | 18.4% | — | — | 5.43 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli not to win both halves | 98.6% | 96.7% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Arsenal not to win both halves | 73.8% | 73.9% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Arsenal to win both halves | 26.2% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.84 |
| Napoli to win both halves | 1.4% | 3.3% | — | — | 29.87 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to win neither half | 77.6% | 82.0% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Arsenal to win either half | 77.1% | 81.9% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Arsenal to win neither half | 22.9% | 18.1% | — | — | 5.54 |
| Napoli to win either half | 22.4% | 18.0% | — | — | 5.55 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli not to win to nil | 93.0% | 92.6% | 75.1% | 1.23× | 1.08 |
| Arsenal not to win to nil | 54.3% | 51.9% | 84.5% | 0.61× | 1.93 |
| Arsenal to win to nil | 45.7% | 48.1% | 15.5% | 3.09× | 2.08 |
| Napoli to win to nil | 7.0% | 7.4% | 24.9% | 0.30× | 13.48 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal by 1 | 26.1% | 27.9% | 16.8% | 1.66× | 3.59 |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 22.2% | 23.9% | 9.6% | 2.49× | 4.19 |
| Arsenal by 2 | 21.3% | 23.9% | 8.0% | 2.97× | 4.19 |
| Draw | 18.8% | 17.1% | 15.8% | 1.08× | 5.86 |
| Napoli by 1 | 8.8% | 7.0% | 19.7% | 0.36× | 14.19 |
| Napoli by 2 | 2.3% | 2.8% | 13.2% | 0.21× | 35.40 |
| Napoli by 3+ | 0.5% | 2.8% | 18.1% | 0.15× | 35.65 |