Philadelphia Union v Cincinnati — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Philadelphia Union

23:45 UTC

Cincinnati

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 12h before kick-off

Philadelphia Union win

51.1%

model 50.6%

Draw

21.8%

model 21.3%

Cincinnati win

27.1%

model 28.0%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (425 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 8.7%
1-1 8.4%
2-2 6.9%
1-2 6.4%
3-1 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	72.4%	Under 2.5	27.6%
BTTS yes	70.8%	BTTS no	29.2%
Philadelphia Union 1+	88.5%	Philadelphia Union 2+	63.7%
Cincinnati 1+	79.6%	Cincinnati 2+	47.2%

Expected goals 2.17 – 1.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 3.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 37%

53.5% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 1234 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cincinnati (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 90%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 274 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Philadelphia Union have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 27.1% for Cincinnati and 21.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.17 for Philadelphia Union and 1.59 for Cincinnati.

Why Philadelphia Union

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Cincinnati can win

Nothing in the data singles out Cincinnati.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Philadelphia Union, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cincinnati, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Philadelphia Union: 50% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cincinnati: 57% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Philadelphia Union's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Philadelphia Union are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.7%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512128	2.17–1.59	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	532027	2.32–1.63	2-1 8%	75%	73%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win	50.6%	51.9%	45.4%	1.14×	1.93
Cincinnati to win	28.0%	27.6%	29.9%	0.92×	3.63
Draw	21.3%	22.2%	24.9%	0.89×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union & both teams score	32.9%	33.0%	24.4%	1.35×	3.03
Cincinnati & both teams score	19.3%	17.8%	17.8%	1.00×	5.61
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.8%	19.1%	0.93×	5.61
Philadelphia Union & not both score	17.7%	17.8%	21.1%	0.85×	5.61
Cincinnati & not both score	8.8%	7.3%	12.3%	0.60×	13.67
Draw & not both score	2.7%	3.6%	5.8%	0.61×	27.90

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union & over 1.5	45.9%	46.7%	37.1%	1.26×	2.14
Philadelphia Union & over 2.5	40.4%	43.7%	30.9%	1.41×	2.29
Philadelphia Union & over 3.5	27.7%	25.5%	17.2%	1.49×	3.92
Cincinnati & over 1.5	24.7%	21.5%	23.5%	0.92×	4.65
Philadelphia Union & under 3.5	22.9%	21.5%	28.3%	0.76×	4.66
Cincinnati & over 2.5	21.7%	21.5%	20.3%	1.06×	4.66
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	17.6%	19.1%	0.92×	5.68
Cincinnati & under 3.5	14.3%	12.7%	18.8%	0.68×	7.87
Cincinnati & over 3.5	13.7%	12.7%	11.2%	1.13×	7.87
Draw & under 2.5	11.1%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.88
Draw & under 3.5	11.1%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.88
Philadelphia Union & under 2.5	10.2%	12.7%	14.5%	0.87×	7.88
Draw & over 2.5	10.2%	12.7%	8.9%	1.42×	7.88
Draw & over 3.5	10.2%	12.7%	8.9%	1.42×	7.88
Cincinnati & under 2.5	6.3%	7.5%	9.7%	0.77×	13.35
Philadelphia Union & under 1.5	4.7%	4.5%	8.4%	0.54×	22.29
Cincinnati & under 1.5	3.4%	4.5%	6.5%	0.69×	22.35
Draw & under 1.5	2.7%	4.5%	5.8%	0.76×	22.38

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (1UP)	69.0%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Cincinnati (1UP)	50.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2UP)	50.6%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Cincinnati (2UP)	28.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win 2nd half	42.5%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
2nd half drawn	29.1%	27.6%	—	—	3.63
Cincinnati to win 2nd half	28.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.63

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.3%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Cincinnati over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.5%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Cincinnati under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.5%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Cincinnati over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.7%	22.3%	—	—	4.49

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.9%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.0%	69.7%	—	—	1.44
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.0%	30.3%	—	—	3.30
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.1%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (+2.5)	84.7%	82.6%	89.5%	0.92×	1.21
Philadelphia Union (+0.5)	72.0%	73.1%	70.1%	1.04×	1.37
Cincinnati (+1.5)	69.5%	69.2%	76.7%	0.90×	1.45
Philadelphia Union (-0.5)	50.6%	51.8%	45.4%	1.14×	1.93
Cincinnati (+0.5)	49.4%	48.2%	54.6%	0.88×	2.07
Philadelphia Union (-1.5)	30.5%	30.8%	23.3%	1.32×	3.25
Cincinnati (-0.5)	28.0%	26.9%	29.9%	0.90×	3.72
Philadelphia Union (-2.5)	15.3%	17.4%	10.5%	1.65×	5.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to concede	88.5%	89.8%	82.0%	1.10×	1.11
Cincinnati clean sheet	11.5%	10.2%	18.0%	0.57×	9.82

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to concede in 1st half	60.6%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Cincinnati clean sheet in 1st half	39.4%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to concede in 2nd half	70.9%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Cincinnati clean sheet in 2nd half	29.1%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 6.5 corners	91.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Cincinnati under 5.5 corners	84.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Cincinnati under 4.5 corners	73.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Cincinnati over 2.5 corners	61.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cincinnati under 3.5 corners	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cincinnati over 3.5 corners	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Cincinnati under 2.5 corners	39.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cincinnati over 4.5 corners	26.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Cincinnati over 5.5 corners	15.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Cincinnati over 6.5 corners	8.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.94

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 3.5 goals	92.3%	92.8%	93.9%	0.99×	1.08
Cincinnati over 0.5 goals	79.6%	75.5%	73.2%	1.03×	1.33
Cincinnati under 2.5 goals	78.6%	75.4%	83.3%	0.91×	1.33
Cincinnati under 1.5 goals	52.8%	52.0%	61.3%	0.85×	1.92
Cincinnati over 1.5 goals	47.2%	48.0%	38.7%	1.24×	2.08
Cincinnati over 2.5 goals	21.4%	24.6%	16.7%	1.47×	4.07
Cincinnati under 0.5 goals	20.4%	24.5%	26.8%	0.92×	4.08
Cincinnati over 3.5 goals	7.7%	7.2%	6.1%	1.19×	13.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 1.5 in 1st half	86.6%	87.4%	—	—	1.14
Cincinnati under 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Cincinnati over 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Cincinnati over 1.5 in 1st half	13.4%	12.6%	—	—	7.94

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati scores more in 2nd half	41.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Cincinnati scores equally in both	34.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Cincinnati scores more in 1st half	23.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (away no bet)	70.4%	73.5%	64.6%	1.14×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	29.6%	26.5%	35.4%	0.75×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati even goals	52.1%	52.2%	53.6%	0.97×	1.92
Cincinnati odd goals	47.9%	47.8%	46.4%	1.03×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	70.2%	73.4%	—	—	1.36
Both halves over 1.5 goals	29.9%	26.6%	—	—	3.76

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	81.0%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	72.3%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Philadelphia Union to score 2+ in a row	52.1%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Cincinnati to score 2+ in a row	33.7%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	32.6%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
Philadelphia Union to score 3+ in a row	23.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Cincinnati to score 3+ in a row	10.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.22

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union corners (+3.5)	97.2%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Philadelphia Union corners (+2.5)	95.0%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Philadelphia Union corners (+1.5)	91.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Philadelphia Union corners (-1.5)	71.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Philadelphia Union corners (-2.5)	62.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Philadelphia Union corners (-3.5)	52.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Cincinnati corners (+3.5)	47.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Cincinnati corners (+2.5)	37.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cincinnati corners (+1.5)	28.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Cincinnati corners (-1.5)	8.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Cincinnati corners (-2.5)	5.0%	4.2%	—	—	23.61
Cincinnati corners (-3.5)	2.8%	4.2%	—	—	23.68

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	38.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	32.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	69.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	67.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	61.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	57.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	48.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	38.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	32.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	30.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	9.0%	7.3%	4.7%	1.55×	13.76
1-1	8.4%	7.3%	10.3%	0.71×	13.76
2-1	8.7%	7.3%	9.9%	0.74×	13.76
2-2	6.9%	7.3%	6.1%	1.20×	13.77
1-2	6.4%	7.3%	7.4%	0.98×	13.77
3-1	6.3%	7.3%	4.9%	1.47×	13.77
2-0	5.5%	7.3%	6.3%	1.15×	13.77
3-2	5.0%	7.3%	3.6%	2.04×	13.77
1-0	4.7%	1.8%	8.4%	0.22×	55.39
2-3	3.7%	1.8%	2.4%	0.75×	55.42
3-0	4.0%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	55.41
0-0	2.7%	1.8%	5.8%	0.31×	55.44
0-1	3.4%	1.8%	6.5%	0.28×	55.42
0-2	3.0%	1.8%	3.3%	0.54×	55.44
1-3	3.4%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.42
3-3	2.7%	1.8%	2.6%	0.68×	55.44
4-1	3.4%	1.8%	2.4%	0.75×	55.42
4-2	2.7%	1.8%	1.6%	1.12×	55.44
0-3	1.6%	1.8%	1.8%	0.98×	55.47
1-4	1.4%	1.8%	1.4%	1.31×	55.47
2-4	1.5%	1.8%	1.7%	1.05×	55.47
4-0	2.1%	1.8%	1.3%	1.43×	55.46
4-3	1.4%	1.8%	0.8%	2.25×	55.47
0-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.8%	2.25×	55.49
3-4	1.1%	1.8%	0.7%	2.62×	55.48
4-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.5%	3.93×	55.49

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2nd half DNB)	59.9%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Cincinnati (2nd half DNB)	40.1%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union leading at HT (DNB)	63.1%	65.2%	—	—	1.54
Cincinnati leading at HT (DNB)	36.9%	34.8%	—	—	2.87

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or Cincinnati (12)	78.7%	77.8%	75.1%	1.04×	1.29
Philadelphia Union or draw (1X)	72.0%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
Cincinnati or draw (X2)	49.4%	48.1%	54.6%	0.88×	2.08

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw at HT	76.1%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Philadelphia Union or Cincinnati at HT	64.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Cincinnati or draw at HT	59.2%	58.2%	—	—	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw (1UP)	72.0%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Cincinnati or draw (1UP)	50.6%	58.7%	—	—	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw in 2nd half	71.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Philadelphia Union or Cincinnati in 2nd half	70.9%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Cincinnati or draw in 2nd half	57.5%	60.6%	—	—	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.7%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Neither half drawn	46.3%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (DNB)	64.4%	62.1%	60.3%	1.03×	1.61
Cincinnati (DNB)	35.6%	37.9%	39.7%	0.95×	2.64

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score first	56.1%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Cincinnati to score first	41.2%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
No goal scored	2.7%	3.9%	—	—	25.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	70.8%	73.3%	61.1%	1.20×	1.36
Not both teams to score	29.2%	26.7%	38.9%	0.68×	3.75

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	62.4%	59.7%	50.9%	1.17×	1.68
Not both score & under 2.5	19.2%	17.9%	29.9%	0.60×	5.59
Not both score & over 2.5	10.0%	8.7%	9.2%	0.95×	11.51
Both score & under 2.5	8.4%	8.7%	10.3%	0.84×	11.55

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	69.9%	70.8%	79.5%	0.89×	1.41
Both teams to score 2+	30.1%	29.2%	20.5%	1.43×	3.42

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	56.3%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Both teams to score in 2nd half	43.7%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	40.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Both score 2nd half only	31.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
Both score 1st half only	16.1%	18.1%	—	—	5.53
Both score in both halves	12.4%	11.6%	—	—	8.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	71.4%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score by HT	28.6%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	70.4%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
A half without a goal	29.6%	28.9%	—	—	3.46

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	43.1%	43.2%	33.1%	1.30×	2.32
2-3 goals	37.5%	35.4%	42.5%	0.83×	2.82
0-1 goals	10.8%	16.4%	20.5%	0.80×	6.11
7+ goals	8.7%	5.7%	4.1%	1.39×	17.47

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to score exactly 1	32.4%	33.1%	34.6%	0.96×	3.03
Cincinnati to score exactly 2	25.8%	27.0%	22.1%	1.22×	3.70
Cincinnati to score 3+	21.4%	24.0%	16.7%	1.44×	4.16
Cincinnati to score exactly 0	20.4%	24.0%	26.8%	0.90×	4.16

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score 3+	36.8%	36.2%	25.2%	1.43×	2.77
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 2	26.9%	27.1%	26.0%	1.04×	3.70
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 1	24.8%	23.0%	31.0%	0.74×	4.35
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 0	11.5%	13.4%	18.0%	0.75×	7.44

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union leading at HT	40.8%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Draw at HT	35.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Cincinnati leading at HT	23.9%	21.2%	—	—	4.73

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union -1: 2	49.4%	47.3%	—	—	2.12
Philadelphia Union -1: 1	30.5%	31.9%	—	—	3.13
Philadelphia Union -1: X	20.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (0:1)	49.4%	47.9%	54.6%	0.88×	2.09
Philadelphia Union (0:1)	30.5%	34.2%	23.3%	1.47×	2.92
Draw (0:1)	20.2%	24.5%	22.2%	1.10×	4.09

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (0:2)	69.5%	66.4%	76.7%	0.86×	1.51
Philadelphia Union (0:2)	15.3%	16.2%	10.5%	1.54×	6.16
Draw (0:2)	15.2%	16.2%	12.8%	1.27×	6.16

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (0:3)	84.7%	84.0%	89.5%	0.94×	1.19
Draw (0:3)	8.8%	6.9%	6.6%	1.03×	14.59
Philadelphia Union (0:3)	6.5%	6.8%	4.0%	1.69×	14.72

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (0:4)	93.5%	94.3%	96.0%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.1%	1.3%	2.1%	0.61×	80.02
Philadelphia Union (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.60×	80.93

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (1:0)	72.0%	73.5%	70.1%	1.05×	1.36
Draw (1:0)	14.7%	11.7%	16.8%	0.70×	8.53
Cincinnati (1:0)	13.3%	11.7%	13.2%	0.89×	8.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2:0)	86.7%	89.2%	86.8%	1.03×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	8.2%	6.5%	8.7%	0.75×	15.30
Cincinnati (2:0)	5.1%	6.5%	4.6%	1.41×	15.46

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	21.0%	23.1%	—	—	4.34

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to concede	79.6%	77.5%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	20.4%	22.5%	26.8%	0.84×	4.45

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union clean sheet in 1st half	52.9%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Philadelphia Union to concede in 1st half	47.1%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to concede in 2nd half	61.5%	60.8%	—	—	1.64
Philadelphia Union clean sheet in 2nd half	38.5%	39.2%	—	—	2.55

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union over 2.5 corners	93.4%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Philadelphia Union over 3.5 corners	86.4%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Philadelphia Union over 4.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Philadelphia Union over 5.5 corners	66.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Philadelphia Union over 6.5 corners	54.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Philadelphia Union under 6.5 corners	45.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Philadelphia Union under 5.5 corners	34.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Philadelphia Union under 4.5 corners	23.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Philadelphia Union under 3.5 corners	13.6%	13.7%	—	—	7.31
Philadelphia Union under 2.5 corners	6.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 goals	88.5%	87.8%	82.0%	1.07×	1.14
Philadelphia Union under 3.5 goals	82.6%	82.5%	90.6%	0.91×	1.21
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 goals	63.7%	62.8%	51.1%	1.23×	1.59
Philadelphia Union under 2.5 goals	63.2%	62.8%	74.8%	0.84×	1.59
Philadelphia Union over 2.5 goals	36.8%	37.2%	25.2%	1.48×	2.69
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 goals	36.3%	37.2%	48.9%	0.76×	2.69
Philadelphia Union over 3.5 goals	17.4%	17.5%	9.4%	1.86×	5.72
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 goals	11.5%	12.2%	18.0%	0.68×	8.20

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 in 1st half	76.1%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 in 1st half	23.9%	21.0%	—	—	4.76

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union scores more in 2nd half	43.2%	40.4%	—	—	2.48
Philadelphia Union scores equally in both	29.0%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Philadelphia Union scores more in 1st half	27.9%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (home no bet)	56.8%	54.4%	54.6%	1.00×	1.84
Draw (home no bet)	43.2%	45.6%	45.4%	1.00×	2.19

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union even goals	50.7%	50.2%	51.0%	0.99×	1.99
Philadelphia Union odd goals	49.3%	49.8%	49.0%	1.02×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	20.9%	22.6%	—	—	4.42
HT 1-0	19.4%	18.9%	—	—	5.28
HT 0-1	13.2%	11.2%	—	—	8.93
HT 1-1	12.4%	11.2%	—	—	8.94
Any other HT score	9.3%	7.7%	—	—	12.97
HT 2-0	9.0%	7.7%	—	—	12.97
HT 2-1	5.8%	7.7%	—	—	13.02
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.76
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.78
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.5%	—	—	39.90

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	32.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Cincinnati at HT / Cincinnati at FT	15.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	14.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.7%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Draw at HT / Cincinnati at FT	9.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.16
Philadelphia Union at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.26
Cincinnati at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.30
Cincinnati at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	3.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.35
Philadelphia Union at HT / Cincinnati at FT	2.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.38

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score last	56.1%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Cincinnati to score last	41.2%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
No goal scored	2.7%	3.9%	—	—	25.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.3%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Philadelphia Union to lead by 1 at any time	69.0%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.8%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Cincinnati to lead by 1 at any time	50.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Philadelphia Union to lead by 2 at any time	40.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.1%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Cincinnati to lead by 2 at any time	21.6%	19.8%	—	—	5.05
Philadelphia Union to lead by 3 at any time	19.4%	17.7%	—	—	5.67
Cincinnati to lead by 3 at any time	7.7%	7.0%	—	—	14.19

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union most corners	79.8%	74.4%	—	—	1.35
Cincinnati most corners	13.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Corners level	6.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.92

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.6%	81.5%	75.5%	1.08×	1.23
1-5 goals	79.5%	78.9%	83.2%	0.95×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	73.6%	68.5%	1.07×	1.36
1-4 goals	65.0%	62.2%	73.1%	0.85×	1.61
3-6 goals	63.7%	62.2%	55.9%	1.11×	1.61
2-4 goals	56.9%	58.9%	58.4%	1.01×	1.70
3-5 goals	54.6%	52.4%	48.9%	1.07×	1.91
1-3 goals	45.6%	48.0%	57.2%	0.84×	2.09
4-6 goals	43.1%	43.6%	33.1%	1.32×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	38.8%	1.12×	2.29
2-3 goals	37.5%	38.9%	42.5%	0.91×	2.57
4-5 goals	34.0%	34.1%	26.1%	1.30×	2.94
1-2 goals	24.9%	24.8%	34.4%	0.72×	4.04
5-6 goals	23.7%	24.8%	17.2%	1.44×	4.04
7+ goals	8.7%	8.9%	4.1%	2.15×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union never behind	46.7%	53.6%	—	—	1.87
Cincinnati never behind	28.4%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.3%	50.2%	50.2%	1.00×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.7%	49.8%	49.8%	1.00×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.3%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.7%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.3%	95.7%	94.2%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	89.2%	88.8%	79.5%	1.12×	1.13
Under 5.5 goals	82.2%	81.0%	88.9%	0.91×	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	72.4%	72.6%	59.9%	1.21×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	67.7%	65.3%	78.8%	0.83×	1.53
Over 3.5 goals	51.7%	53.5%	37.1%	1.44×	1.87
Under 3.5 goals	48.3%	46.5%	62.9%	0.74×	2.15
Over 4.5 goals	32.3%	34.7%	21.2%	1.64×	2.88
Under 2.5 goals	27.6%	27.4%	40.1%	0.68×	3.65
Over 5.5 goals	17.8%	19.0%	11.1%	1.71×	5.26
Under 1.5 goals	10.8%	11.2%	20.5%	0.55×	8.92
Under 0.5 goals	2.7%	4.3%	5.8%	0.74×	23.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	90.5%	92.8%	95.6%	0.97×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	87.1%	88.2%	74.5%	1.18×	1.13
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	79.2%	76.6%	87.6%	0.87×	1.31
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.2%	67.9%	48.1%	1.41×	1.47
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	59.9%	55.7%	74.8%	0.74×	1.80
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	40.1%	44.3%	25.2%	1.76×	2.26
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.8%	32.1%	51.9%	0.62×	3.11
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	20.8%	23.4%	12.4%	1.90×	4.27
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	13.0%	11.8%	25.5%	0.46×	8.47
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	9.5%	7.2%	4.4%	1.63×	13.84

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	79.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	79.1%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	53.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 1.5 in 1st half	46.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 0.5 in 1st half	20.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	20.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.7%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	64.4%	61.1%	—	—	1.64
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	62.6%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	37.4%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	35.6%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.3%	14.0%	—	—	7.12

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati not to score in both halves	71.1%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Philadelphia Union not to score in both halves	57.0%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Philadelphia Union to score in both halves	43.0%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
Cincinnati to score in both halves	28.9%	29.7%	—	—	3.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	70.8%	73.3%	61.1%	1.20×	1.36
Only Philadelphia Union scores	17.7%	16.2%	21.1%	0.77×	6.16
Only Cincinnati scores	8.8%	6.6%	12.3%	0.54×	15.06
Neither team scores	2.7%	3.8%	5.8%	0.65×	26.37

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	21.6%	22.9%	0.94×	4.63
Exactly 4 goals	19.4%	18.6%	16.0%	1.16×	5.38
6 or more goals	17.8%	18.6%	11.1%	1.67×	5.39
Exactly 2 goals	16.8%	18.6%	19.7%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 5 goals	14.6%	12.4%	10.2%	1.21×	8.09
Exactly 1 goals	8.1%	7.6%	14.8%	0.52×	13.12
Exactly 0 goals	2.7%	4.3%	5.8%	0.74×	23.17

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	32.6%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
2 goals in 1st half	25.7%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
No goals in 1st half	20.9%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	20.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	64.4%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
1 goal in 2nd half	24.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
No goals in 2nd half	11.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati not to win both halves	93.2%	93.5%	—	—	1.07
Philadelphia Union not to win both halves	82.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Philadelphia Union to win both halves	17.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.84
Cincinnati to win both halves	6.8%	6.5%	—	—	15.27

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win either half	65.9%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Cincinnati to win neither half	54.5%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
Cincinnati to win either half	45.5%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Philadelphia Union to win neither half	34.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati not to win to nil	91.2%	92.5%	87.7%	1.05×	1.08
Philadelphia Union not to win to nil	82.3%	83.5%	78.9%	1.06×	1.20
Philadelphia Union to win to nil	17.7%	16.5%	21.1%	0.78×	6.05
Cincinnati to win to nil	8.8%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.31

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.3%	23.9%	24.9%	0.96×	4.19
Philadelphia Union by 1	20.2%	23.9%	22.2%	1.07×	4.19
Philadelphia Union by 3+	15.3%	17.0%	10.5%	1.62×	5.87
Philadelphia Union by 2	15.2%	17.0%	12.8%	1.33×	5.87
Cincinnati by 1	14.7%	11.7%	16.8%	0.70×	8.52
Cincinnati by 2	8.2%	7.0%	8.7%	0.81×	14.21
Cincinnati by 3+	5.1%	7.0%	4.6%	1.53×	14.28