Al Nassr FC v Abha — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 9 September 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627
KSA-Pro League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 3-0 10.6%
- 4-0 9.4%
- 2-0 8.9%
- 3-1 7.5%
- 5-0 6.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 79.8% | Under 2.5 | 20.2% |
| BTTS yes | 49.6% | BTTS no | 50.4% |
| Al Nassr FC 1+ | 97.1% | Al Nassr FC 2+ | 87.0% |
| Abha 1+ | 50.6% | Abha 2+ | 15.8% |
Expected goals 3.56 – 0.71. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Al Nassr FC carry the stronger rating, 1821 Elo against 1454.
- Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Abha have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Al Nassr FC have an estimated 87.9% win probability, against 8.7% for the draw and 3.4% for Abha. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.56 for Al Nassr FC and 0.71 for Abha.
Why Al Nassr FC
Al Nassr FC carry the stronger rating, 1821 Elo against 1454. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 8.7%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.
Why Abha can win
Nothing in the data singles out Abha.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Al Nassr FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Abha, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Al Nassr FC: 55% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 8.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Abha: 52% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.5 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Al Nassr FC are the model's most likely outcome at 87.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-0 at 10.6%. Confidence 70/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 3.56–0.71 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 4.23–0.65 | 4-0 10% | 86% | 47% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.