Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · AUS-A-League · 2627

AUS-A-League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Melbourne Victory

08:40 UTC

Melbourne City FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 22h before kick-off

Melbourne Victory win

47.0%

model 45.7%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.3%

Melbourne City FC win

26.6%

model 29.0%

472627

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
1-0 9.7%
2-1 9.3%
2-0 7.7%
0-1 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.2%	Under 2.5	47.8%
BTTS yes	55.4%	BTTS no	44.6%
Melbourne Victory 1+	79.1%	Melbourne Victory 2+	46.4%
Melbourne City FC 1+	69.8%	Melbourne City FC 2+	33.7%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

37/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Melbourne Victory or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 65%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

moderate signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

82.5% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1271 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Melbourne Victory.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Melbourne Victory have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.6% for Melbourne City FC and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Melbourne Victory and 1.20 for Melbourne City FC.

Why Melbourne Victory

Nothing in the data singles out Melbourne Victory.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Melbourne City FC can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Melbourne Victory, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Melbourne City FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Melbourne Victory: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Melbourne City FC: 50% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Melbourne Victory are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 37/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	462529	1.57–1.20	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	462628	1.51–1.13	1-1 12%	49%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to win	45.9%	47.3%	37.9%	1.25×	2.11
Melbourne City FC to win	28.2%	27.9%	35.4%	0.79×	3.58
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	27.1%	1.03×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory & not both score	25.1%	25.2%	18.2%	1.38×	3.97
Melbourne Victory & both teams score	20.8%	21.8%	20.0%	1.09×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	22.5%	0.80×	5.57
Melbourne City FC & not both score	14.8%	13.3%	16.4%	0.81×	7.53
Melbourne City FC & both teams score	13.4%	13.3%	19.3%	0.69×	7.53
Draw & not both score	7.3%	8.3%	5.0%	1.67×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory & over 1.5	35.3%	34.9%	29.6%	1.18×	2.87
Melbourne Victory & under 3.5	32.1%	30.8%	22.1%	1.39×	3.25
Melbourne Victory & over 2.5	27.1%	26.1%	25.7%	1.01×	3.84
Melbourne City FC & under 3.5	21.0%	21.6%	23.6%	0.92×	4.63
Melbourne City FC & over 1.5	20.3%	21.6%	27.5%	0.79×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.6%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Melbourne Victory & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	12.5%	1.44×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	22.5%	0.80×	5.56
Melbourne City FC & over 2.5	15.7%	18.0%	22.1%	0.81×	5.56
Melbourne Victory & over 3.5	13.8%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Melbourne City FC & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	13.6%	0.95×	7.79
Melbourne Victory & under 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	8.6%	1.50×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	5.0%	1.58×	12.63
Melbourne City FC & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	11.1%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	11.1%	0.72×	12.63
Melbourne City FC & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	12.1%	0.65×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (1UP)	60.9%	62.7%	—	—	1.59
Melbourne City FC (1UP)	45.5%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (2UP)	45.9%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Melbourne City FC (2UP)	28.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to win 2nd half	37.3%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	36.1%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Melbourne City FC to win 2nd half	26.6%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.2%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Melbourne City FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Melbourne City FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Melbourne City FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.8%	13.3%	—	—	7.50

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Melbourne Victory over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.7%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Melbourne Victory under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.3%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Melbourne Victory over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC (+2.5)	90.8%	92.1%	88.2%	1.04×	1.09
Melbourne City FC (+1.5)	77.0%	78.5%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
Melbourne Victory (+0.5)	71.8%	73.6%	64.6%	1.14×	1.36
Melbourne City FC (+0.5)	54.1%	52.4%	62.1%	0.84×	1.91
Melbourne Victory (-0.5)	45.9%	47.6%	37.9%	1.26×	2.10
Melbourne City FC (-0.5)	28.2%	26.4%	35.4%	0.75×	3.80
Melbourne Victory (-1.5)	23.0%	21.5%	19.6%	1.10×	4.65
Melbourne Victory (-2.5)	9.2%	7.9%	11.8%	0.67×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC to concede	77.9%	78.8%	78.9%	1.00×	1.27
Melbourne City FC clean sheet	22.1%	21.2%	21.1%	1.01×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC clean sheet in 1st half	52.2%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Melbourne City FC to concede in 1st half	47.8%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC to concede in 2nd half	57.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Melbourne City FC clean sheet in 2nd half	42.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC over 2.5 corners	80.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Melbourne City FC under 6.5 corners	79.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Melbourne City FC under 5.5 corners	67.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Melbourne City FC over 3.5 corners	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Melbourne City FC under 4.5 corners	52.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Melbourne City FC over 4.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Melbourne City FC under 3.5 corners	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Melbourne City FC over 5.5 corners	32.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Melbourne City FC over 6.5 corners	21.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Melbourne City FC under 2.5 corners	19.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC under 3.5 goals	97.2%	97.5%	95.0%	1.03×	1.03
Melbourne City FC under 2.5 goals	89.5%	87.8%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
Melbourne City FC under 1.5 goals	68.9%	68.0%	56.1%	1.21×	1.47
Melbourne City FC over 0.5 goals	67.6%	68.0%	77.1%	0.88×	1.47
Melbourne City FC under 0.5 goals	32.4%	32.0%	22.9%	1.40×	3.12
Melbourne City FC over 1.5 goals	31.1%	32.0%	43.9%	0.73×	3.13
Melbourne City FC over 2.5 goals	10.5%	12.2%	15.0%	0.81×	8.21
Melbourne City FC over 3.5 goals	2.8%	2.5%	5.0%	0.50×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC under 1.5 in 1st half	92.4%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Melbourne City FC under 0.5 in 1st half	63.7%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Melbourne City FC over 0.5 in 1st half	36.3%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Melbourne City FC over 1.5 in 1st half	7.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.38

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC scores equally in both	43.0%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Melbourne City FC scores more in 2nd half	35.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Melbourne City FC scores more in 1st half	21.2%	21.9%	—	—	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (away no bet)	63.9%	62.0%	58.2%	1.06×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.1%	38.0%	41.8%	0.91×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC even goals	55.2%	56.9%	55.0%	1.04×	1.76
Melbourne City FC odd goals	44.8%	43.1%	45.0%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.25

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.0%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.0%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.2%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Melbourne Victory to score 2+ in a row	36.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Melbourne City FC to score 2+ in a row	23.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Melbourne Victory to score 3+ in a row	13.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
Melbourne City FC to score 3+ in a row	6.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.07

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory corners (+3.5)	90.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Melbourne Victory corners (+2.5)	84.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Melbourne Victory corners (+1.5)	77.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Melbourne City FC corners (+3.5)	73.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Melbourne City FC corners (+2.5)	64.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Melbourne City FC corners (+1.5)	53.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Melbourne Victory corners (-1.5)	46.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Melbourne Victory corners (-2.5)	36.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Melbourne Victory corners (-3.5)	26.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Melbourne City FC corners (-1.5)	22.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Melbourne City FC corners (-2.5)	15.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Melbourne City FC corners (-3.5)	9.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	37.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	31.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
0-8 corners	31.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	68.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	62.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	58.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	41.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	37.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	31.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	28.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	21.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.3%	11.5%	11.8%	0.97×	8.72
1-0	10.6%	11.5%	8.6%	1.34×	8.72
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
0-0	7.3%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.50
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.50
1-2	6.9%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.51
2-0	8.2%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.50
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.29
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.32
1-3	2.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.32
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.32
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.30
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.29
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.80×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.32
Any other score	2.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (2nd half DNB)	58.4%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Melbourne City FC (2nd half DNB)	41.6%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory leading at HT (DNB)	61.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Melbourne City FC leading at HT (DNB)	38.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory or Melbourne City FC (12)	74.1%	72.1%	72.9%	0.99×	1.39
Melbourne Victory or draw (1X)	71.8%	72.1%	64.6%	1.12×	1.39
Melbourne City FC or draw (X2)	54.1%	52.7%	62.1%	0.85×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory or draw at HT	78.4%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Melbourne City FC or draw at HT	65.4%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Melbourne Victory or Melbourne City FC at HT	56.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory or draw (1UP)	71.8%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Melbourne City FC or draw (1UP)	54.1%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory or draw in 2nd half	73.4%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Melbourne Victory or Melbourne City FC in 2nd half	63.9%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Melbourne City FC or draw in 2nd half	62.7%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.9%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.1%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (DNB)	62.0%	62.7%	51.7%	1.21×	1.60
Melbourne City FC (DNB)	38.0%	37.3%	48.3%	0.77×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to score first	53.1%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Melbourne City FC to score first	39.6%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	7.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.9%	51.3%	61.1%	0.84×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.1%	48.7%	38.9%	1.25×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.5%	41.6%	49.6%	0.84×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	38.5%	38.4%	30.4%	1.27×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.3%	8.9%	0.93×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.1%	85.6%	77.9%	1.10×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.9%	14.4%	22.1%	0.65×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.6%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.1%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	23.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.74
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.36
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.02

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.6%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.5%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	47.5%	47.3%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.2%	40.7%	1.16×	2.12
0-1 goals	25.8%	26.6%	21.1%	1.26×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.4%	26.6%	35.0%	0.76×	3.76
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	3.9%	0.47×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	33.6%	1.07×	2.78
Melbourne City FC to score exactly 0	32.4%	33.8%	22.9%	1.48×	2.96
Melbourne City FC to score exactly 2	20.6%	22.3%	29.3%	0.76×	4.49
Melbourne City FC to score 3+	10.5%	12.9%	15.0%	0.86×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to score exactly 1	33.3%	32.6%	33.6%	0.97×	3.07
Melbourne Victory to score exactly 2	25.2%	26.5%	23.9%	1.11×	3.77
Melbourne Victory to score exactly 0	22.1%	23.3%	21.1%	1.11×	4.29
Melbourne Victory to score 3+	19.4%	18.8%	22.1%	0.85×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Melbourne Victory leading at HT	34.6%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Melbourne City FC leading at HT	21.6%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory -1: 2	54.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Melbourne Victory -1: 1	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Melbourne Victory -1: X	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC (0:1)	54.1%	51.3%	62.1%	0.83×	1.95
Melbourne Victory (0:1)	23.0%	24.2%	19.6%	1.23×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	24.2%	18.6%	1.30×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC (0:2)	77.0%	79.3%	80.4%	0.99×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.9%	11.0%	8.2%	1.34×	9.09
Melbourne Victory (0:2)	9.2%	7.7%	11.8%	0.65×	13.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC (0:3)	90.8%	92.7%	88.2%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.2%	5.8%	8.2%	0.71×	17.23
Melbourne Victory (0:3)	3.0%	2.4%	3.9%	0.61×	42.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC (0:4)	97.0%	98.1%	96.1%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.2%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.86
Melbourne Victory (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.1%	1.14×	82.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (1:0)	71.8%	72.4%	64.6%	1.12×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.0%	17.1%	21.4%	0.80×	5.85
Melbourne City FC (1:0)	11.2%	12.7%	14.3%	0.89×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (2:0)	88.8%	88.5%	85.7%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.7%	6.4%	10.4%	0.62×	15.68
Melbourne City FC (2:0)	3.4%	2.3%	4.3%	0.54×	43.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.2%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to concede	67.6%	66.7%	77.1%	0.86×	1.50
Melbourne Victory clean sheet	32.4%	33.3%	22.9%	1.46×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory clean sheet in 1st half	63.7%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Melbourne Victory to concede in 1st half	36.3%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory clean sheet in 2nd half	50.8%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Melbourne Victory to concede in 2nd half	49.2%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory over 2.5 corners	89.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Melbourne Victory over 3.5 corners	79.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Melbourne Victory over 4.5 corners	65.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Melbourne Victory under 6.5 corners	62.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Melbourne Victory over 5.5 corners	51.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Melbourne Victory under 5.5 corners	48.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Melbourne Victory over 6.5 corners	37.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Melbourne Victory under 4.5 corners	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Melbourne Victory under 3.5 corners	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Melbourne Victory under 2.5 corners	10.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory under 3.5 goals	93.3%	92.2%	89.6%	1.03×	1.08
Melbourne Victory under 2.5 goals	80.6%	82.2%	77.9%	1.06×	1.22
Melbourne Victory over 0.5 goals	77.9%	77.7%	78.9%	0.98×	1.29
Melbourne Victory under 1.5 goals	55.4%	58.6%	54.3%	1.08×	1.71
Melbourne Victory over 1.5 goals	44.6%	41.4%	45.7%	0.91×	2.41
Melbourne Victory under 0.5 goals	22.1%	22.3%	21.1%	1.06×	4.49
Melbourne Victory over 2.5 goals	19.4%	17.8%	22.1%	0.80×	5.62
Melbourne Victory over 3.5 goals	6.7%	7.8%	10.4%	0.75×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory under 1.5 in 1st half	86.1%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Melbourne Victory under 0.5 in 1st half	52.2%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Melbourne Victory over 0.5 in 1st half	47.8%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Melbourne Victory over 1.5 in 1st half	13.9%	9.9%	—	—	10.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory scores more in 2nd half	38.0%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Melbourne Victory scores equally in both	36.3%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Melbourne Victory scores more in 1st half	25.7%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC (home no bet)	52.1%	51.4%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.9%	48.6%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory even goals	52.4%	50.7%	53.2%	0.95×	1.97
Melbourne Victory odd goals	47.6%	49.3%	46.8%	1.05×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.3%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
HT 1-0	21.6%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	15.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.05
HT 1-1	9.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 2-0	7.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 0-2	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory at HT / Melbourne Victory at FT	27.3%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Draw at HT / Melbourne Victory at FT	16.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Melbourne City FC at HT / Melbourne City FC at FT	14.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Melbourne City FC at FT	11.6%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Melbourne Victory at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Melbourne City FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.60
Melbourne City FC at HT / Melbourne Victory at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Melbourne Victory at HT / Melbourne City FC at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to score last	53.1%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Melbourne City FC to score last	39.6%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	7.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Melbourne Victory to lead by 1 at any time	60.9%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Melbourne City FC to lead by 1 at any time	45.5%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.3%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Melbourne Victory to lead by 2 at any time	29.2%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Melbourne City FC to lead by 2 at any time	16.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Melbourne Victory to lead by 3 at any time	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Melbourne City FC to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	1.7%	—	—	60.25

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory most corners	57.6%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Melbourne City FC most corners	32.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.4%	88.2%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	76.4%	1.03×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.3%	72.4%	75.4%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.0%	68.8%	72.1%	0.95×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.4%	68.8%	56.8%	1.21×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.3%	48.5%	54.6%	0.89×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.5%	40.7%	1.19×	2.06
3-5 goals	43.9%	43.6%	51.4%	0.85×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.6%	43.6%	37.1%	1.17×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.3%	39.2%	39.6%	0.99×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.4%	30.2%	35.0%	0.86×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.1%	24.5%	31.8%	0.77×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.0%	14.8%	15.4%	0.96×	6.76
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	3.9%	0.65×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory never behind	47.2%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Melbourne City FC never behind	31.8%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	50.0%	1.02×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.0%	0.98×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.2%	87.6%	81.1%	1.08×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.2%	72.5%	78.9%	0.92×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.8%	72.5%	61.4%	1.18×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	52.5%	41.8%	1.26×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	47.5%	58.2%	0.82×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.2%	27.5%	38.6%	0.71×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.8%	27.5%	21.1%	1.31×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.8%	12.4%	18.9%	0.66×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	5.0%	1.55×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	7.1%	1.08×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.4%	92.4%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.0%	86.7%	76.4%	1.13×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.5%	67.4%	73.4%	0.92×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.1%	67.4%	52.0%	1.30×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.9%	32.6%	48.0%	0.68×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.5%	32.6%	26.6%	1.23×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.0%	13.3%	23.6%	0.56×	7.52
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.6%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	4.1%	0.69×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.0%	92.4%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.8%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.7%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.3%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.2%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.9%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.5%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.5%	20.6%	—	—	4.86
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.1%	20.6%	—	—	4.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC not to score in both halves	82.1%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Melbourne Victory not to score in both halves	72.4%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Melbourne Victory to score in both halves	27.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Melbourne City FC to score in both halves	17.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.9%	53.9%	61.1%	0.88×	1.86
Only Melbourne Victory scores	25.1%	26.0%	18.2%	1.43×	3.85
Only Melbourne City FC scores	14.8%	11.0%	16.4%	0.67×	9.05
Neither team scores	7.3%	7.1%	5.0%	1.42×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.0%	24.9%	21.1%	1.18×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	20.0%	1.13×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.5%	17.5%	16.4%	1.06×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.4%	12.1%	20.0%	0.61×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	7.6%	7.6%	12.1%	0.63×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	7.3%	7.6%	5.0%	1.52×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
No goals in 1st half	33.3%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	10.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.24

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.5%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	32.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.5%	22.7%	—	—	4.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC not to win both halves	94.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Melbourne Victory not to win both halves	87.1%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Melbourne Victory to win both halves	12.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Melbourne City FC to win both halves	5.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to win either half	59.0%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Melbourne City FC to win neither half	57.5%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Melbourne City FC to win either half	42.5%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
Melbourne Victory to win neither half	41.0%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne City FC not to win to nil	85.2%	88.1%	83.6%	1.05×	1.14
Melbourne Victory not to win to nil	74.9%	75.4%	81.8%	0.92×	1.33
Melbourne Victory to win to nil	25.1%	24.6%	18.2%	1.35×	4.06
Melbourne City FC to win to nil	14.8%	11.9%	16.4%	0.72×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	27.1%	1.03×	3.59
Melbourne Victory by 1	22.8%	24.1%	18.6%	1.30×	4.15
Melbourne City FC by 1	17.0%	17.0%	21.4%	0.80×	5.87
Melbourne Victory by 2	13.9%	11.8%	8.2%	1.43×	8.50
Melbourne Victory by 3+	9.2%	7.2%	11.8%	0.61×	13.90
Melbourne City FC by 2	7.7%	7.2%	10.4%	0.69×	13.91
Melbourne City FC by 3+	3.4%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	36.80