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Seattle Mariners v Athletics — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · MLB · 2026

The model serving this sport has not been backtested.
Nothing here has been checked against what actually happened, so treat every number as untested until you have run python -m pipeline.backtest --sport baseball.

MLB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

mlb-dc No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Seattle Mariners win
51.0%
Draw
13.4%
Athletics win
35.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
mlb-dc 4.81–4.21 4-4 4% 99% 98%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners to win 50.9% 50.9% 42.6% 1.19× 1.97
Athletics to win 35.5% 35.5% 31.2% 1.14× 2.82
Draw 13.6% 13.6% 26.3% 0.52× 7.33
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners (1UP) 78.4% 78.4% 58.7% 1.33× 1.28
Athletics (1UP) 68.7% 68.7% 49.3% 1.39× 1.46
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners (2UP) 56.1% 56.1% 44.5% 1.26× 1.78
Athletics (2UP) 43.0% 43.0% 33.4% 1.29× 2.32
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics (+2.5) 75.3% 75.3% 90.3% 0.83× 1.33
Seattle Mariners (+0.5) 64.5% 64.5% 68.8% 0.94× 1.55
Athletics (+1.5) 63.0% 63.0% 78.1% 0.81× 1.59
Seattle Mariners (-0.5) 50.9% 50.9% 42.6% 1.19× 1.97
Athletics (+0.5) 49.1% 49.1% 57.4% 0.86× 2.04
Seattle Mariners (-1.5) 37.0% 37.0% 21.9% 1.69× 2.70
Athletics (-0.5) 35.5% 35.5% 31.2% 1.14× 2.82
Seattle Mariners (-2.5) 24.7% 24.7% 9.7% 2.53× 4.05
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners (away no bet) 78.8% 78.8% 61.8% 1.28× 1.27
Draw (away no bet) 21.2% 21.2% 38.2% 0.55× 4.73
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals 85.8% 85.8% 16.9% 5.08× 1.17
Not both halves over 1.5 14.2% 14.2% 83.1% 0.17× 7.02
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 99.6% 99.6% 64.8% 1.54× 1.00
Both halves under 1.5 goals 0.4% 0.4% 35.2% 0.01× 226.33
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 97.7% 97.7% 57.4% 1.70× 1.02
Seattle Mariners to score 2+ in a row 82.4% 82.4% 36.2% 2.28× 1.21
Athletics to score 2+ in a row 74.0% 74.0% 27.9% 2.65× 1.35
Either team to score 3+ in a row 72.7% 72.7% 22.4% 3.25× 1.38
Seattle Mariners to score 3+ in a row 49.1% 49.1% 13.9% 3.52× 2.04
Athletics to score 3+ in a row 37.4% 37.4% 8.9% 4.22× 2.68
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 70.8% 70.8% 3.8% 18.69× 1.41
4-4 3.7% 3.7% 0.2% 18.74× 27.10
4-3 3.5% 3.5% 0.6% 6.20× 28.49
3-4 3.1% 3.1% 0.5% 6.23× 32.62
3-3 2.9% 2.9% 1.2% 2.42× 34.29
4-2 2.5% 2.5% 1.0% 2.48× 39.94
3-2 2.1% 2.1% 2.9% 0.72× 48.06
2-4 1.9% 1.9% 0.5% 3.70× 52.34
2-3 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 0.82× 55.03
2-2 1.3% 1.3% 5.8% 0.22× 77.13
4-1 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 0.66× 83.97
3-1 1.0% 1.0% 4.7% 0.21× 101.06
1-4 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.77× 125.99
1-3 0.8% 0.8% 2.8% 0.27× 132.45
2-1 0.6% 0.6% 8.5% 0.07× 162.16
1-2 0.5% 0.5% 7.0% 0.08× 185.64
4-0 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 0.16× 353.08
3-0 0.2% 0.2% 3.9% 0.06× 424.94
1-1 0.2% 0.2% 11.4% 0.02× 487.90
0-4 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.15× 606.51
0-3 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% 0.06× 637.59
2-0 0.1% 0.1% 6.5% 0.02× 681.88
0-2 0.1% 0.1% 5.3% 0.02× 893.69
1-0 0.1% 0.1% 8.8% 0.01× 891.52
0-1 0.1% 0.1% 7.0% 0.01× 957.30
0-0 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.00× 10,000.00
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners leading at HT (DNB) 59.6% 59.6% 56.8% 1.05× 1.68
Athletics leading at HT (DNB) 40.4% 40.4% 43.2% 0.93× 2.47
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners or Athletics (12) 86.4% 86.4% 73.7% 1.17× 1.16
Seattle Mariners or draw (1X) 64.5% 64.5% 68.8% 0.94× 1.55
Athletics or draw (X2) 49.1% 49.1% 57.4% 0.86× 2.04
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners or draw (1UP) 78.4% 78.4% 74.6% 1.05× 1.28
Athletics or draw (1UP) 68.7% 68.7% 64.5% 1.07× 1.46
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners (DNB) 58.9% 58.9% 57.7% 1.02× 1.70
Athletics (DNB) 41.1% 41.1% 42.3% 0.97× 2.43
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners to score first 53.4% 53.4% 50.2% 1.06× 1.87
Athletics to score first 46.6% 46.6% 42.0% 1.11× 2.15
No goal scored 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.00× 10,000.00
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 97.6% 97.6% 54.0% 1.81× 1.03
Not both teams to score 2.4% 2.4% 46.0% 0.05× 41.19
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 2+ 87.6% 87.6% 15.5% 5.64× 1.14
Not both teams to score 2+ 12.4% 12.4% 84.5% 0.15× 8.07
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half 85.8% 85.8% 29.1% 2.95× 1.17
Not both to score in 2nd half 14.2% 14.2% 70.9% 0.20× 7.03
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score by HT 71.0% 71.0% 18.0% 3.95× 1.41
Not both to score by HT 29.0% 29.0% 82.0% 0.35× 3.45
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
7+ goals 78.5% 78.5% 2.4% 32.57× 1.27
4-6 goals 19.2% 19.2% 29.1% 0.66× 5.20
2-3 goals 2.0% 2.0% 45.0% 0.04× 49.73
0-1 goals 0.2% 0.2% 23.6% 0.01× 461.62
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics to score 3+ 78.7% 78.7% 13.9% 5.66× 1.27
Athletics to score exactly 2 13.4% 13.4% 22.3% 0.60× 7.46
Athletics to score exactly 1 6.4% 6.4% 34.3% 0.19× 15.68
Athletics to score exactly 0 1.6% 1.6% 29.6% 0.05× 64.30
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners to score 3+ 85.4% 85.4% 20.8% 4.10× 1.17
Seattle Mariners to score exactly 2 9.7% 9.7% 23.6% 0.41× 10.35
Seattle Mariners to score exactly 1 4.0% 4.0% 31.4% 0.13× 24.90
Seattle Mariners to score exactly 0 0.9% 0.9% 24.2% 0.04× 114.58
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners leading at HT 46.9% 46.9% 33.2% 1.41× 2.13
Athletics leading at HT 31.8% 31.8% 25.3% 1.26× 3.14
Draw at HT 21.2% 21.2% 41.5% 0.51× 4.71
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners -1: 2 49.1% 49.1% 2.04
Seattle Mariners -1: 1 37.0% 37.0% 2.70
Seattle Mariners -1: X 13.9% 13.9% 7.22
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics (0:1) 49.1% 49.1% 57.4% 0.86× 2.04
Seattle Mariners (0:1) 37.0% 37.0% 21.9% 1.69× 2.70
Draw (0:1) 13.9% 13.9% 20.7% 0.67× 7.22
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics (0:2) 63.0% 63.0% 78.1% 0.81× 1.59
Seattle Mariners (0:2) 24.7% 24.7% 9.7% 2.53× 4.05
Draw (0:2) 12.3% 12.3% 12.2% 1.01× 8.12
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics (0:3) 75.3% 75.3% 90.3% 0.83× 1.33
Seattle Mariners (0:3) 15.0% 15.0% 3.7% 4.00× 6.69
Draw (0:3) 9.7% 9.7% 6.0% 1.61× 10.28
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics (0:4) 85.0% 85.0% 96.3% 0.88× 1.18
Seattle Mariners (0:4) 8.2% 8.2% 1.2% 7.05× 12.26
Draw (0:4) 6.8% 6.8% 2.6% 2.61× 14.70
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners (1:0) 64.5% 64.5% 68.8% 0.94× 1.55
Athletics (1:0) 23.4% 23.4% 14.5% 1.61× 4.28
Draw (1:0) 12.1% 12.1% 16.7% 0.73× 8.27
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners (2:0) 76.6% 76.6% 85.5% 0.90× 1.31
Athletics (2:0) 14.0% 14.0% 5.9% 2.38× 7.13
Draw (2:0) 9.4% 9.4% 8.7% 1.08× 10.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 62.2% 62.2% 47.5% 1.31× 1.61
1st half highest scoring 25.4% 25.4% 25.7% 0.99× 3.94
Halves equal 12.4% 12.4% 26.7% 0.46× 8.08
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics (home no bet) 72.2% 72.2% 54.3% 1.33× 1.38
Draw (home no bet) 27.8% 27.8% 45.7% 0.61× 3.60
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other HT score 49.5% 49.5% 4.7% 10.64× 2.02
HT 2-1 8.5% 8.5% 3.2% 2.70× 11.74
HT 1-1 8.2% 8.2% 10.0% 0.82× 12.17
HT 2-2 7.2% 7.2% 0.9% 8.32× 13.96
HT 1-2 6.9% 6.9% 2.7% 2.60× 14.45
HT 2-0 5.1% 5.1% 7.0% 0.72× 19.75
HT 1-0 4.9% 4.9% 20.3% 0.24× 20.41
HT 0-1 4.0% 4.0% 16.1% 0.25× 25.10
HT 0-2 3.3% 3.3% 4.7% 0.70× 29.92
HT 0-0 2.4% 2.4% 30.7% 0.08× 41.79
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners at HT / Seattle Mariners at FT 35.5% 35.5% 25.3% 1.40× 2.82
Athletics at HT / Athletics at FT 21.4% 21.4% 17.0% 1.26× 4.67
Draw at HT / Seattle Mariners at FT 9.4% 9.4% 14.4% 0.65× 10.61
Draw at HT / Athletics at FT 7.9% 7.9% 11.4% 0.70× 12.59
Seattle Mariners at HT / Athletics at FT 6.1% 6.1% 2.9% 2.14× 16.34
Athletics at HT / Seattle Mariners at FT 6.0% 6.0% 2.9% 2.08× 16.71
Seattle Mariners at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 1.05× 18.73
Athletics at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 4.4% 5.5% 0.81× 22.56
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.9% 15.8% 0.25× 25.82
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners to score last 53.3% 53.3% 50.3% 1.06× 1.88
Athletics to score last 46.7% 46.7% 41.9% 1.11× 2.14
No goal scored 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.00× 10,000.00
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 100.0% 100.0% 92.2% 1.08× 1.00
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 90.9% 90.9% 47.3% 1.92× 1.10
Seattle Mariners to lead by 1 at any time 78.4% 78.4% 58.7% 1.33× 1.28
Athletics to lead by 1 at any time 68.7% 68.7% 49.3% 1.39× 1.46
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 60.9% 60.9% 19.0% 3.20× 1.64
Seattle Mariners to lead by 2 at any time 56.1% 56.1% 27.8% 2.02× 1.78
Athletics to lead by 2 at any time 43.0% 43.0% 19.9% 2.17× 2.32
Seattle Mariners to lead by 3 at any time 36.8% 36.8% 11.9% 3.10× 2.72
Athletics to lead by 3 at any time 24.6% 24.6% 7.2% 3.42× 4.07
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
7+ goals 78.5% 78.5% 2.4% 32.57× 1.27
2-6 goals 21.3% 21.3% 74.0% 0.29× 4.71
3-6 goals 20.8% 20.8% 50.9% 0.41× 4.81
4-6 goals 19.2% 19.2% 29.1% 0.66× 5.20
5-6 goals 15.8% 15.8% 13.1% 1.20× 6.35
1-5 goals 12.0% 12.0% 85.7% 0.14× 8.33
2-5 goals 11.8% 11.8% 69.9% 0.17× 8.48
3-5 goals 11.3% 11.3% 46.8% 0.24× 8.83
4-5 goals 9.8% 9.8% 25.0% 0.39× 10.22
1-4 goals 5.7% 5.7% 76.8% 0.07× 17.49
2-4 goals 5.5% 5.5% 61.0% 0.09× 18.18
3-4 goals 5.0% 5.0% 37.8% 0.13× 19.85
1-3 goals 2.2% 2.2% 60.8% 0.04× 44.89
2-3 goals 2.0% 2.0% 45.0% 0.04× 49.73
1-2 goals 0.7% 0.7% 39.0% 0.02× 147.03
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners never behind 31.3% 31.3% 50.7% 0.62× 3.20
Athletics never behind 21.6% 21.6% 41.3% 0.52× 4.62
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.1% 50.1% 48.5% 1.03× 2.00
Even number of goals 49.9% 49.9% 51.6% 0.97× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 50.0% 50.0% 54.6% 0.92× 2.00
Odd goals in 1st half 50.0% 50.0% 45.4% 1.10× 2.00
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half 50.0% 50.0% 47.9% 1.04× 2.00
Even goals in 2nd half 50.0% 50.0% 52.1% 0.96× 2.00
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 100.0% 100.0% 92.2% 1.08× 1.00
Over 1.5 goals 99.8% 99.8% 76.4% 1.31× 1.00
Over 2.5 goals 99.3% 99.3% 53.3% 1.86× 1.01
Over 3.5 goals 97.8% 97.8% 31.5% 3.11× 1.02
Over 4.5 goals 94.3% 94.3% 15.5% 6.09× 1.06
Over 5.5 goals 88.0% 88.0% 6.5% 13.44× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 12.0% 12.0% 93.5% 0.13× 8.33
Under 4.5 goals 5.7% 5.7% 84.5% 0.07× 17.49
Under 3.5 goals 2.2% 2.2% 68.5% 0.03× 44.89
Under 2.5 goals 0.7% 0.7% 46.7% 0.01× 147.03
Under 1.5 goals 0.2% 0.2% 23.6% 0.01× 461.62
Under 0.5 goals 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.00× 10,000.00
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 99.8% 99.8% 69.3% 1.44× 1.00
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 99.3% 99.3% 40.2% 2.47× 1.01
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 97.7% 97.7% 18.4% 5.30× 1.02
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.9% 93.9% 7.2% 13.06× 1.07
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 86.7% 86.7% 2.5% 34.48× 1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 13.3% 13.3% 97.5% 0.14× 7.54
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.1% 6.1% 92.8% 0.07× 16.39
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 2.3% 2.3% 81.6% 0.03× 43.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 0.7% 0.7% 59.8% 0.01× 144.75
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 0.2% 0.2% 30.7% 0.01× 459.48
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners to score in both halves 81.5% 81.5% 28.9% 2.82× 1.23
Athletics to score in both halves 74.7% 74.7% 21.9% 3.40× 1.34
Athletics not to score in both halves 25.3% 25.3% 78.1% 0.32× 3.96
Seattle Mariners not to score in both halves 18.5% 18.5% 71.1% 0.26× 5.42
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 97.6% 97.6% 54.0% 1.81× 1.03
Only Seattle Mariners scores 1.6% 1.6% 21.8% 0.07× 64.30
Only Athletics scores 0.9% 0.9% 16.5% 0.05× 114.58
Neither team scores 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.00× 10,000.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 88.0% 88.0% 6.5% 13.44× 1.14
Exactly 5 goals 6.3% 6.3% 9.0% 0.70× 15.89
Exactly 4 goals 3.5% 3.5% 16.0% 0.22× 28.66
Exactly 3 goals 1.5% 1.5% 21.8% 0.07× 64.62
Exactly 2 goals 0.5% 0.5% 23.2% 0.02× 215.75
Exactly 1 goals 0.2% 0.2% 15.8% 0.01× 461.62
Exactly 0 goals 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.00× 10,000.00
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 96.6% 96.6% 48.7% 1.98× 1.04
1 goal in 2nd half 2.9% 2.9% 32.0% 0.09× 35.03
No goals in 2nd half 0.6% 0.6% 19.3% 0.03× 179.72
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Athletics not to win both halves 88.1% 88.1% 92.0% 0.96× 1.14
Seattle Mariners not to win both halves 79.2% 79.2% 87.0% 0.91× 1.26
Seattle Mariners to win both halves 20.8% 20.8% 13.0% 1.60× 4.81
Athletics to win both halves 11.9% 11.9% 8.0% 1.48× 8.43
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Mariners by 3+ 24.7% 24.7% 9.7% 2.53× 4.05
Athletics by 3+ 14.0% 14.0% 5.9% 2.38× 7.13
Seattle Mariners by 1 13.9% 13.9% 20.7% 0.67× 7.22
Draw 13.6% 13.6% 26.3% 0.52× 7.33
Seattle Mariners by 2 12.3% 12.3% 12.2% 1.01× 8.12
Athletics by 1 12.1% 12.1% 16.7% 0.73× 8.27
Athletics by 2 9.4% 9.4% 8.7% 1.08× 10.67
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Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

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