Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Mariano Navone — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · ATP · 2026

ATP Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 10:04 UTC

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

20:00 UTC

Mariano Navone

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry win

32.3%

Draw

0.0%

Mariano Navone win

67.7%

32068

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	32068	19.72–21.99	1-3 26%	51%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	65.3%	68.2%	96.8%	0.70×	1.47
Match to reach a 5th set	34.7%	30.9%	3.2%	9.54×	3.24

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mariano Navone to win the first set	59.7%	57.8%	50.6%	1.14×	1.73
Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win the first set	40.3%	42.2%	49.4%	0.85×	2.37

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mariano Navone first set and match	48.8%	49.6%	40.7%	1.22×	2.02
Tomas Martin Etcheverry first set, Mariano Navone match	18.9%	30.5%	10.0%	3.04×	3.28
Tomas Martin Etcheverry first set and match	21.4%	28.6%	39.4%	0.73×	3.49
Mariano Navone first set, Tomas Martin Etcheverry match	10.9%	11.7%	9.9%	1.18×	8.55

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mariano Navone +9.5 games	98.7%	95.6%	97.9%	0.98×	1.05
Mariano Navone +8.5 games	97.9%	95.6%	95.9%	1.00×	1.05
Mariano Navone +7.5 games	96.7%	95.6%	93.0%	1.03×	1.05
Mariano Navone +6.5 games	95.0%	87.5%	88.1%	0.99×	1.14
Mariano Navone +5.5 games	92.7%	87.5%	80.4%	1.09×	1.14
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +9.5 games	91.7%	87.5%	98.0%	0.89×	1.14
Mariano Navone +4.5 games	89.8%	80.3%	72.8%	1.10×	1.25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +8.5 games	88.1%	80.3%	95.8%	0.84×	1.25
Mariano Navone +3.5 games	86.1%	80.3%	65.2%	1.23×	1.25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +7.5 games	83.7%	74.5%	93.4%	0.80×	1.34
Mariano Navone +2.5 games	81.5%	74.5%	59.5%	1.25×	1.34
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +6.5 games	78.4%	69.9%	88.6%	0.79×	1.43
Mariano Navone +1.5 games	76.0%	69.9%	55.1%	1.27×	1.43
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +5.5 games	72.4%	65.1%	82.6%	0.79×	1.54
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +4.5 games	65.8%	61.1%	74.7%	0.82×	1.64
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +3.5 games	58.7%	53.6%	66.5%	0.81×	1.87
Mariano Navone −1.5 games	56.3%	53.6%	45.9%	1.17×	1.87
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +2.5 games	51.2%	50.7%	59.1%	0.86×	1.97
Mariano Navone −2.5 games	48.8%	49.3%	40.9%	1.21×	2.03
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +1.5 games	43.7%	46.4%	54.1%	0.86×	2.15
Mariano Navone −3.5 games	41.3%	46.4%	33.5%	1.38×	2.15
Mariano Navone −4.5 games	34.2%	38.9%	25.3%	1.54×	2.57
Mariano Navone −5.5 games	27.6%	34.9%	17.4%	2.00×	2.87
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −1.5 games	24.0%	30.1%	44.9%	0.67×	3.32
Mariano Navone −6.5 games	21.6%	30.1%	11.4%	2.64×	3.32
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −2.5 games	18.5%	25.5%	40.5%	0.63×	3.92
Mariano Navone −7.5 games	16.3%	25.5%	6.6%	3.84×	3.93
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −3.5 games	13.9%	19.7%	34.8%	0.57×	5.07
Mariano Navone −8.5 games	11.9%	19.7%	4.2%	4.73×	5.08
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −4.5 games	10.2%	19.7%	27.2%	0.73×	5.08
Mariano Navone −9.5 games	8.3%	12.5%	2.0%	6.12×	7.97
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −5.5 games	7.3%	12.5%	19.6%	0.64×	7.98
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −6.5 games	5.0%	12.5%	11.9%	1.05×	7.98
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −7.5 games	3.3%	4.4%	7.0%	0.62×	22.89
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −8.5 games	2.1%	4.4%	4.1%	1.06×	22.90
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −9.5 games	1.3%	4.4%	2.1%	2.10×	22.90

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mariano Navone to win	67.7%	61.7%	50.7%	1.22×	1.62
Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win	32.3%	38.3%	49.3%	0.78×	2.61

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of games	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Odd number of games	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mariano Navone +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Mariano Navone +2.5 sets	93.5%	86.1%	96.2%	0.89×	1.16
Mariano Navone +1.5 sets	81.7%	75.0%	67.6%	1.11×	1.33
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +2.5 sets	78.7%	72.4%	97.0%	0.75×	1.38
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +1.5 sets	53.0%	55.5%	66.3%	0.84×	1.80
Mariano Navone −1.5 sets	47.0%	44.5%	33.8%	1.32×	2.25
Mariano Navone −2.5 sets	21.3%	27.6%	3.0%	9.06×	3.63
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −1.5 sets	18.3%	25.0%	32.4%	0.77×	3.99
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −2.5 sets	6.5%	13.9%	3.8%	3.65×	7.18
Tomas Martin Etcheverry −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93
Mariano Navone −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93

Set score 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mariano Navone to win 3-1	25.7%	21.7%	3.0%	7.22×	4.60
Mariano Navone to win 3-0	21.3%	20.0%	3.0%	6.59×	4.99
Mariano Navone to win 3-2	20.7%	20.0%	1.4%	13.90×	4.99
Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win 3-2	14.0%	18.4%	1.8%	10.06×	5.45
Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win 3-1	11.7%	18.3%	2.1%	8.54×	5.46
Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win 3-0	6.5%	12.1%	3.8%	3.17×	8.27

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
At least one set dropped	72.2%	66.2%	93.2%	0.71×	1.51
Match in straight sets	27.8%	28.8%	6.8%	4.23×	3.47
Mariano Navone in straight sets	21.3%	25.9%	3.0%	8.51×	3.86
Tomas Martin Etcheverry in straight sets	6.5%	12.9%	3.8%	3.38×	7.76

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 50.5 games	80.2%	79.0%	98.4%	0.80×	1.27
Over 34.5 games	74.9%	73.7%	12.1%	6.07×	1.36
Under 48.5 games	73.6%	73.7%	97.8%	0.75×	1.36
Over 36.5 games	68.6%	66.2%	8.6%	7.65×	1.51
Under 46.5 games	67.0%	66.2%	97.1%	0.68×	1.51
Under 45.5 games	63.9%	60.6%	96.9%	0.63×	1.65
Over 38.5 games	62.6%	60.6%	7.0%	8.68×	1.65
Under 44.5 games	60.2%	60.6%	96.5%	0.63×	1.65
Over 39.5 games	58.8%	57.5%	6.1%	9.45×	1.74
Under 43.5 games	56.5%	57.5%	96.2%	0.60×	1.74
Over 40.5 games	55.0%	52.0%	5.5%	9.44×	1.92
Under 42.5 games	52.9%	52.0%	95.7%	0.54×	1.92
Over 41.5 games	51.0%	52.0%	5.0%	10.34×	1.92
Under 41.5 games	49.0%	48.0%	95.0%	0.51×	2.08
Over 42.5 games	47.1%	48.0%	4.3%	11.19×	2.08
Under 40.5 games	45.0%	48.0%	94.5%	0.51×	2.08
Over 43.5 games	43.5%	42.5%	3.8%	11.15×	2.35
Under 39.5 games	41.2%	42.5%	93.9%	0.45×	2.35
Over 44.5 games	39.8%	39.4%	3.5%	11.30×	2.54
Under 38.5 games	37.4%	39.4%	93.0%	0.42×	2.54
Over 45.5 games	36.1%	39.4%	3.1%	12.56×	2.54
Over 46.5 games	33.0%	33.8%	2.9%	11.61×	2.96
Under 36.5 games	31.4%	33.8%	91.4%	0.37×	2.96
Over 48.5 games	26.4%	26.3%	2.2%	11.75×	3.80
Under 34.5 games	25.1%	26.3%	87.9%	0.30×	3.80
Over 50.5 games	19.8%	21.0%	1.6%	13.09×	4.77

Total sets 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 4 sets	37.4%	35.2%	5.1%	6.86×	2.84
Exactly 5 sets	34.7%	30.9%	3.2%	9.54×	3.24
Exactly 3 sets	27.8%	29.7%	37.5%	0.79×	3.37

Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Mariano Navone — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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