Valentin Vacherot v Frances Tiafoe — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · ATP · 2026

ATP Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 10:04 UTC

Valentin Vacherot

23:00 UTC

Frances Tiafoe

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Valentin Vacherot win

39.8%

Draw

0.0%

Frances Tiafoe win

60.2%

40060

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	40060	20.47–21.75	1-3 23%	49%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	63.4%	62.5%	96.8%	0.65×	1.60
Match to reach a 5th set	36.6%	35.1%	3.2%	10.84×	2.85

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frances Tiafoe to win the first set	55.5%	57.6%	50.6%	1.14×	1.74
Valentin Vacherot to win the first set	44.5%	42.4%	49.4%	0.86×	2.36

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frances Tiafoe first set and match	42.4%	42.2%	40.7%	1.04×	2.37
Valentin Vacherot first set and match	26.8%	31.2%	39.4%	0.79×	3.20
Valentin Vacherot first set, Frances Tiafoe match	17.7%	30.4%	10.0%	3.03×	3.29
Frances Tiafoe first set, Valentin Vacherot match	13.1%	11.7%	9.9%	1.18×	8.54

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frances Tiafoe +9.5 games	97.9%	95.6%	97.9%	0.98×	1.05
Frances Tiafoe +8.5 games	96.7%	95.6%	95.9%	1.00×	1.05
Frances Tiafoe +7.5 games	94.9%	87.5%	93.0%	0.94×	1.14
Valentin Vacherot +9.5 games	94.0%	87.5%	98.0%	0.89×	1.14
Frances Tiafoe +6.5 games	92.6%	87.5%	88.1%	0.99×	1.14
Valentin Vacherot +8.5 games	91.3%	87.5%	95.8%	0.91×	1.14
Frances Tiafoe +5.5 games	89.6%	80.3%	80.4%	1.00×	1.25
Valentin Vacherot +7.5 games	87.7%	80.3%	93.4%	0.86×	1.25
Frances Tiafoe +4.5 games	85.9%	80.3%	72.8%	1.10×	1.25
Valentin Vacherot +6.5 games	83.3%	74.5%	88.6%	0.84×	1.34
Frances Tiafoe +3.5 games	81.3%	74.5%	65.2%	1.14×	1.34
Valentin Vacherot +5.5 games	78.1%	69.9%	82.6%	0.85×	1.43
Frances Tiafoe +2.5 games	75.9%	69.9%	59.5%	1.18×	1.43
Valentin Vacherot +4.5 games	72.3%	65.1%	74.7%	0.87×	1.54
Frances Tiafoe +1.5 games	69.7%	61.1%	55.1%	1.11×	1.64
Valentin Vacherot +3.5 games	65.7%	61.1%	66.5%	0.92×	1.64
Valentin Vacherot +2.5 games	58.6%	53.6%	59.1%	0.91×	1.87
Valentin Vacherot +1.5 games	51.2%	50.7%	54.1%	0.94×	1.97
Frances Tiafoe −1.5 games	48.8%	49.3%	45.9%	1.08×	2.03
Frances Tiafoe −2.5 games	41.4%	46.4%	40.9%	1.14×	2.15
Frances Tiafoe −3.5 games	34.3%	38.9%	33.5%	1.16×	2.57
Valentin Vacherot −1.5 games	30.3%	38.9%	44.9%	0.87×	2.57
Frances Tiafoe −4.5 games	27.7%	34.9%	25.3%	1.38×	2.87
Valentin Vacherot −2.5 games	24.1%	30.1%	40.5%	0.74×	3.32
Frances Tiafoe −5.5 games	21.9%	30.1%	17.4%	1.73×	3.32
Valentin Vacherot −3.5 games	18.7%	25.5%	34.8%	0.73×	3.92
Frances Tiafoe −6.5 games	16.7%	25.5%	11.4%	2.24×	3.92
Valentin Vacherot −4.5 games	14.1%	19.7%	27.2%	0.73×	5.07
Frances Tiafoe −7.5 games	12.3%	19.7%	6.6%	2.97×	5.08
Valentin Vacherot −5.5 games	10.4%	19.7%	19.6%	1.00×	5.08
Frances Tiafoe −8.5 games	8.8%	12.5%	4.2%	3.01×	7.97
Valentin Vacherot −6.5 games	7.4%	12.5%	11.9%	1.05×	7.98
Frances Tiafoe −9.5 games	6.0%	12.5%	2.0%	6.12×	7.98
Valentin Vacherot −7.5 games	5.1%	12.5%	7.0%	1.79×	7.98
Valentin Vacherot −8.5 games	3.3%	4.4%	4.1%	1.06×	22.89
Valentin Vacherot −9.5 games	2.1%	4.4%	2.1%	2.10×	22.90

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frances Tiafoe to win	60.2%	59.5%	50.7%	1.17×	1.68
Valentin Vacherot to win	39.8%	40.5%	49.3%	0.82×	2.47

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of games	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Odd number of games	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frances Tiafoe +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Valentin Vacherot +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Frances Tiafoe +2.5 sets	91.2%	86.0%	96.2%	0.89×	1.16
Valentin Vacherot +2.5 sets	82.9%	75.0%	97.0%	0.77×	1.33
Frances Tiafoe +1.5 sets	76.5%	72.4%	67.6%	1.07×	1.38
Valentin Vacherot +1.5 sets	60.2%	61.6%	66.3%	0.93×	1.62
Frances Tiafoe −1.5 sets	39.8%	38.4%	33.8%	1.14×	2.60
Valentin Vacherot −1.5 sets	23.5%	27.6%	32.4%	0.85×	3.62
Frances Tiafoe −2.5 sets	17.1%	25.0%	3.0%	8.22×	4.00
Valentin Vacherot −2.5 sets	8.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.68×	7.12
Valentin Vacherot −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93
Frances Tiafoe −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93

Set score 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frances Tiafoe to win 3-1	22.8%	20.1%	3.0%	6.66×	4.99
Frances Tiafoe to win 3-2	20.3%	20.0%	1.4%	13.90×	4.99
Frances Tiafoe to win 3-0	17.1%	19.0%	3.0%	6.24×	5.27
Valentin Vacherot to win 3-2	16.3%	19.0%	1.8%	10.40×	5.27
Valentin Vacherot to win 3-1	14.7%	18.4%	2.1%	8.57×	5.44
Valentin Vacherot to win 3-0	8.8%	12.2%	3.8%	3.19×	8.22

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
At least one set dropped	74.1%	66.7%	93.2%	0.72×	1.50
Match in straight sets	25.9%	28.8%	6.8%	4.22×	3.48
Frances Tiafoe in straight sets	17.1%	23.1%	3.0%	7.59×	4.33
Valentin Vacherot in straight sets	8.8%	13.0%	3.8%	3.41×	7.69

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 50.5 games	78.7%	74.4%	98.4%	0.76×	1.35
Over 34.5 games	76.8%	74.3%	12.1%	6.13×	1.35
Under 48.5 games	71.8%	73.6%	97.8%	0.75×	1.36
Over 36.5 games	70.7%	73.6%	8.6%	8.52×	1.36
Over 38.5 games	64.9%	60.6%	7.0%	8.68×	1.65
Under 46.5 games	64.9%	60.6%	97.1%	0.62×	1.65
Under 45.5 games	61.8%	60.6%	96.9%	0.63×	1.65
Over 39.5 games	61.2%	60.6%	6.1%	9.95×	1.65
Under 44.5 games	57.9%	57.5%	96.5%	0.60×	1.74
Over 40.5 games	57.4%	57.5%	5.5%	10.44×	1.74
Under 43.5 games	54.2%	52.0%	96.2%	0.54×	1.92
Over 41.5 games	53.3%	52.0%	5.0%	10.34×	1.92
Under 42.5 games	50.6%	52.0%	95.7%	0.54×	1.92
Over 42.5 games	49.4%	48.0%	4.3%	11.19×	2.08
Under 41.5 games	46.7%	48.0%	95.0%	0.51×	2.08
Over 43.5 games	45.8%	48.0%	3.8%	12.60×	2.08
Under 40.5 games	42.6%	42.5%	94.5%	0.45×	2.35
Over 44.5 games	42.1%	42.5%	3.5%	12.17×	2.35
Under 39.5 games	38.8%	39.4%	93.9%	0.42×	2.54
Over 45.5 games	38.2%	39.4%	3.1%	12.57×	2.54
Under 38.5 games	35.1%	39.4%	93.0%	0.42×	2.54
Over 46.5 games	35.1%	39.4%	2.9%	13.53×	2.54
Under 36.5 games	29.3%	26.4%	91.4%	0.29×	3.79
Over 48.5 games	28.2%	26.4%	2.2%	11.76×	3.79
Under 34.5 games	23.2%	25.7%	87.9%	0.29×	3.90
Over 50.5 games	21.3%	25.6%	1.6%	16.01×	3.90

Total sets 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 4 sets	37.5%	35.2%	5.1%	6.86×	2.84
Exactly 5 sets	36.6%	35.1%	3.2%	10.84×	2.85
Exactly 3 sets	25.9%	29.1%	37.5%	0.78×	3.44

Valentin Vacherot v Frances Tiafoe — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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