Yuliia Starodubtseva v Elena Rybakina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · WTA · 2026
WTA Tour results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Yuliia Starodubtseva win
13.8%
Draw
0.0%
Elena Rybakina win
86.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| serve-hold | 8.98–13.27 | 0-2 59% | 41% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Deciding set 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match decided before the last set | 64.2% | 62.6% | 66.1% | 0.95× | 1.60 |
| Match to reach a 3rd set | 35.8% | 35.0% | 33.9% | 1.03× | 2.86 |
First set 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina to win the first set | 76.7% | 72.6% | 49.3% | 1.47× | 1.38 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva to win the first set | 23.3% | 27.4% | 50.7% | 0.54× | 3.64 |
First set / match 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina first set and match | 72.5% | 65.6% | 39.7% | 1.65× | 1.52 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva first set, Elena Rybakina match | 13.7% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 1.43× | 8.54 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva first set and match | 9.6% | 9.0% | 42.5% | 0.21× | 11.08 |
| Elena Rybakina first set, Yuliia Starodubtseva match | 4.2% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 0.59× | 17.80 |
Games handicap 36
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina +7.5 games | 99.5% | 95.6% | 89.2% | 1.07× | 1.05 |
| Elena Rybakina +8.5 games | 99.8% | 95.6% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Elena Rybakina +9.5 games | 99.9% | 95.6% | 97.2% | 0.98× | 1.05 |
| Elena Rybakina +6.5 games | 99.0% | 95.6% | 82.1% | 1.16× | 1.05 |
| Elena Rybakina +5.5 games | 98.2% | 95.6% | 74.3% | 1.29× | 1.05 |
| Elena Rybakina +4.5 games | 97.1% | 95.6% | 66.4% | 1.44× | 1.05 |
| Elena Rybakina +3.5 games | 95.5% | 95.6% | 59.8% | 1.60× | 1.05 |
| Elena Rybakina +2.5 games | 93.6% | 87.5% | 55.0% | 1.59× | 1.14 |
| Elena Rybakina +1.5 games | 90.9% | 87.5% | 51.7% | 1.69× | 1.14 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +9.5 games | 90.4% | 87.5% | 97.6% | 0.90× | 1.14 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +8.5 games | 84.7% | 74.5% | 94.4% | 0.79× | 1.34 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +7.5 games | 76.9% | 69.9% | 90.2% | 0.78× | 1.43 |
| Elena Rybakina −1.5 games | 73.8% | 65.2% | 44.1% | 1.48× | 1.54 |
| Elena Rybakina −2.5 games | 67.6% | 61.1% | 40.8% | 1.50× | 1.64 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +6.5 games | 67.3% | 61.1% | 83.7% | 0.73× | 1.64 |
| Elena Rybakina −3.5 games | 60.7% | 57.6% | 36.5% | 1.58× | 1.74 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +5.5 games | 57.3% | 53.6% | 76.4% | 0.70× | 1.87 |
| Elena Rybakina −4.5 games | 52.1% | 50.7% | 30.0% | 1.69× | 1.97 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +4.5 games | 47.9% | 49.3% | 70.0% | 0.70× | 2.03 |
| Elena Rybakina −5.5 games | 42.7% | 46.4% | 23.6% | 1.97× | 2.15 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +3.5 games | 39.3% | 42.4% | 63.5% | 0.67× | 2.36 |
| Elena Rybakina −6.5 games | 32.7% | 38.9% | 16.3% | 2.39× | 2.57 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +2.5 games | 32.4% | 38.9% | 59.2% | 0.66× | 2.57 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +1.5 games | 26.2% | 34.8% | 55.9% | 0.62× | 2.87 |
| Elena Rybakina −7.5 games | 23.1% | 30.1% | 9.8% | 3.06× | 3.32 |
| Elena Rybakina −8.5 games | 15.3% | 25.5% | 5.6% | 4.58× | 3.93 |
| Elena Rybakina −9.5 games | 9.6% | 12.5% | 2.4% | 5.19× | 7.97 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −1.5 games | 9.1% | 12.5% | 48.3% | 0.26× | 7.97 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −2.5 games | 6.4% | 12.5% | 45.0% | 0.28× | 7.98 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −3.5 games | 4.5% | 4.4% | 40.2% | 0.11× | 22.88 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −4.5 games | 2.9% | 4.4% | 33.6% | 0.13× | 22.89 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −5.5 games | 1.8% | 4.4% | 25.7% | 0.17× | 22.90 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −6.5 games | 1.0% | 4.4% | 17.9% | 0.24× | 22.91 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −7.5 games | 0.5% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 0.41× | 22.91 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −8.5 games | 0.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 0.76× | 22.91 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −9.5 games | 0.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.54× | 22.91 |
Match winner 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina to win | 86.2% | 79.2% | 47.9% | 1.65× | 1.26 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva to win | 13.8% | 20.8% | 52.1% | 0.40× | 4.81 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of games | 49.7% | 50.5% | 50.1% | 1.01× | 1.98 |
| Even number of games | 50.3% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 0.99× | 2.02 |
Set handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina +2.5 sets | 100.0% | 98.3% | 100.0% | 0.98× | 1.02 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +2.5 sets | 100.0% | 98.3% | 100.0% | 0.98× | 1.02 |
| Elena Rybakina +1.5 sets | 94.6% | 86.1% | 65.4% | 1.32× | 1.16 |
| Elena Rybakina −1.5 sets | 58.8% | 58.8% | 31.6% | 1.86× | 1.70 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva +1.5 sets | 41.2% | 41.2% | 68.4% | 0.60× | 2.43 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −1.5 sets | 5.4% | 13.9% | 34.6% | 0.40× | 7.21 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva −2.5 sets | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 78.68× | 58.93 |
| Elena Rybakina −2.5 sets | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 78.68× | 58.93 |
Set score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina to win 2-0 | 58.8% | 51.0% | 31.6% | 1.62× | 1.96 |
| Elena Rybakina to win 2-1 | 27.4% | 21.8% | 16.4% | 1.33× | 4.60 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva to win 2-1 | 8.3% | 12.2% | 17.5% | 0.69× | 8.23 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva to win 2-0 | 5.4% | 12.1% | 34.6% | 0.35× | 8.30 |
Straight sets 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match in straight sets | 64.2% | 61.1% | 66.1% | 0.93× | 1.64 |
| Elena Rybakina in straight sets | 58.8% | 55.4% | 31.6% | 1.76× | 1.81 |
| At least one set dropped | 35.8% | 35.8% | 33.9% | 1.06× | 2.79 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva in straight sets | 5.4% | 12.8% | 34.6% | 0.37× | 7.79 |
Total games 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 games | 97.5% | 93.5% | 94.9% | 0.98× | 1.07 |
| Under 30.5 games | 90.9% | 88.8% | 90.4% | 0.98× | 1.13 |
| Over 16.5 games | 87.0% | 82.7% | 81.3% | 1.02× | 1.21 |
| Under 28.5 games | 83.5% | 79.1% | 83.2% | 0.95× | 1.27 |
| Under 26.5 games | 75.4% | 74.3% | 75.9% | 0.98× | 1.35 |
| Under 25.5 games | 70.9% | 73.6% | 72.0% | 1.02× | 1.36 |
| Over 18.5 games | 69.4% | 66.2% | 62.5% | 1.06× | 1.51 |
| Under 24.5 games | 66.5% | 66.2% | 68.6% | 0.97× | 1.51 |
| Under 23.5 games | 63.7% | 60.6% | 66.2% | 0.92× | 1.65 |
| Over 19.5 games | 60.8% | 60.6% | 54.3% | 1.12× | 1.65 |
| Under 22.5 games | 59.2% | 57.5% | 62.3% | 0.92× | 1.74 |
| Over 20.5 games | 53.4% | 52.0% | 47.3% | 1.10× | 1.92 |
| Under 21.5 games | 52.4% | 52.0% | 57.4% | 0.91× | 1.92 |
| Over 21.5 games | 47.6% | 48.0% | 42.6% | 1.13× | 2.08 |
| Under 20.5 games | 46.6% | 48.0% | 52.8% | 0.91× | 2.08 |
| Over 22.5 games | 40.8% | 42.5% | 37.7% | 1.13× | 2.35 |
| Under 19.5 games | 39.2% | 39.4% | 45.7% | 0.86× | 2.54 |
| Over 23.5 games | 36.3% | 39.4% | 33.8% | 1.17× | 2.54 |
| Over 24.5 games | 33.5% | 33.8% | 31.4% | 1.08× | 2.96 |
| Under 18.5 games | 30.6% | 33.8% | 37.5% | 0.90× | 2.96 |
| Over 25.5 games | 29.1% | 26.4% | 28.0% | 0.94× | 3.79 |
| Over 26.5 games | 24.6% | 25.7% | 24.1% | 1.07× | 3.89 |
| Over 28.5 games | 16.5% | 20.9% | 16.8% | 1.25× | 4.78 |
| Under 16.5 games | 13.0% | 17.3% | 18.7% | 0.92× | 5.80 |
| Over 30.5 games | 9.1% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 1.17× | 8.94 |
| Under 14.5 games | 2.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 1.28× | 15.37 |
Total sets 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 sets | 64.2% | 62.6% | 66.1% | 0.95× | 1.60 |
| Exactly 3 sets | 35.8% | 35.0% | 33.9% | 1.03× | 2.86 |