AC Milan v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 3
xG per shot
0.27 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
1.57 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.06 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
65.5%
Draw
23.4%
Verona win
11.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.97–0.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–0.77 | 1-0 13% | 49% | 45% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 2.94 xGVerona 0.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
 Verona |
Cheikh Niasse | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovane |
| 39' |
Verona |
Al Musrati | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 45' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 45' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.59 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Adrien Rabiot |
| 47' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.97 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 52' |
AC Milan |
Luka Modric | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Loftus-Cheek |
| 60' |
AC Milan |
Koni de Winter | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 60' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 61' |
Verona |
Victor Nelsson | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 68' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Oyegoke |
| 85' |
Verona |
Unai Núñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Verona |
Cheikh Niasse | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Unai Núñez |
| 92' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.73 | 0.29 | 1.26 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.59 | 0.02 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christian Pulisic FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Luka Modric MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Ardon Jashari Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssouf Fofana Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zachary Athekame Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Odogu Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Al Musrati MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Daniel Oyegoke DMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| Giovane AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Daniel Mosquera FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gift Orban Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Valentini Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Suat Serdar Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Abdou Harroui Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |