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Atalanta v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 26 October 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

6–1
3.84 – 0.22 xG
Shots
19 – 4
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 2
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+2.16 – +0.78
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.12.23.24.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Marten de Roon 5' — goalMateo Retegui 8' — goalCharles De Ketelaere 13' — goalAdemola Lookman 28' — goalAdemola Lookman 33' — goalAmin Sarr 41' — goalMateo Retegui 57' — goal
Atalanta 3.84 xGVerona 0.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Sead Kolasinac 1' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marten de Roon 5' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Ademola Lookman 8' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 8' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 10' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 11' — Missed Shot (0.24 xG, Open Play)Ademola Lookman 13' — Saved Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Charles De Ketelaere 13' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Éderson 18' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 24' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ademola Lookman 28' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 32' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ademola Lookman 33' — Goal (0.64 xG, Open Play)Charles De Ketelaere 33' — Missed Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Éderson 40' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Amin Sarr 41' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 45' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Dailon Livramento 46' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ademola Lookman 53' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 57' — Goal (0.71 xG, Open Play)Amin Sarr 73' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Mario Pasalic 78' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Dani Silva 83' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Atalanta attacking right Verona attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Atalanta Sead Kolasinac 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Éderson
5' Atalanta Marten de Roon 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ademola Lookman
8' Atalanta Ademola Lookman 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
8' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal
10' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sead Kolasinac
11' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.24 Open Play Missed Shot Davide Zappacosta
13' Atalanta Ademola Lookman 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
13' Atalanta Charles De Ketelaere 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ademola Lookman
18' Atalanta Éderson 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mateo Retegui
24' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.02 Open Play Saved Shot Matteo Ruggeri
28' Atalanta Ademola Lookman 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Goal
32' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
33' Atalanta Ademola Lookman 0.64 Open Play Right Foot Goal Charles De Ketelaere
33' Atalanta Charles De Ketelaere 0.50 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Éderson
40' Atalanta Éderson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matteo Ruggeri
41' Verona Amin Sarr 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Goal Reda Belahyane
45' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Éderson
46' Verona Dailon Livramento 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Jackson Tchatchoua
53' Atalanta Ademola Lookman 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marten de Roon
57' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.71 Open Play Left Foot Goal Charles De Ketelaere
73' Verona Amin Sarr 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Reda Belahyane
78' Atalanta Mario Pasalic 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
83' Verona Dani Silva 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot

Players

Verona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Amin Sarr FW 90 1 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.22
Giangiacomo Magnani DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jackson Tchatchoua DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.12
Lorenzo Montipò GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Reda Belahyane MC 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.13
Daniele Ghilardi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Dailon Livramento AMC 80 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Suat Serdar MC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Grigoris Kastanos AMC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Domagoj Bradaric DML 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Diego Coppola DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Dani Silva Sub 43 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.19
Darko Lazovic Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Flavius Daniliuc Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Tomás Suslov Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Faride Alidou Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atalanta

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Charles De Ketelaere AMC 90 1 2 2 2 0.56 1.36 2.40
Marten de Roon MC 90 1 0 1 1 0.32 0.11 1.61
Berat Gjimshiti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Matteo Ruggeri DML 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.04 0.52
Isak Hien DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.04
Marco Carnesecchi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Sead Kolasinac DC 78 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.14 0.87
Mateo Retegui FW 63 2 0 7 1 1.34 0.04 1.93
Ademola Lookman AMC 57 2 2 5 2 1.48 0.38 2.86
Éderson MC 57 0 0 2 3 0.06 0.59 0.81
Davide Zappacosta DMR 57 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.24 0.32
Mario Pasalic Sub 33 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.78
Lazar Samardzic Sub 33 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Raoul Bellanova Sub 33 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Nicolo Zaniolo Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Marco Palestra Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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