Atalanta v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.28 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.75 – -0.77
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
72.4%
Draw
18.4%
Verona win
9.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLLWL last 10
scored 14
from 12.8 xG
conceded 15
from 20.5 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.16–0.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.23–0.93 | 2-0 11% | 61% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 1.75 xGVerona 0.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Gagliardini |
| 13' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 15' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 36' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 36' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 45' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 47' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 49' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 53' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 55' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 57' |
Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 60' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 71' |
Verona |
Al Musrati | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 79' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 80' |
Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Al Musrati |
| 90' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gift Orban |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gift Orban FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Rafik Belghali DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.53 |
| Abdou Harroui MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Martin Frese DML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Oyegoke Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Tomás Suslov Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Al Musrati Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antoine Bernede Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 0.66 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Éderson MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Hien Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |