Augsburg v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 13
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.40 – -0.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
28.3%
Draw
29.2%
Wolfsburg win
42.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.27–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 0.60 xGWolfsburg 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Wolfsburg |
Jonas Wind | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 3' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frank Onyeka |
| 21' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 21' |
Augsburg |
Frank Onyeka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 36' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 49' |
Augsburg |
Chrislain Matsima | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cédric Zesiger |
| 55' |
Wolfsburg |
Bence Dárdai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 58' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 63' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Wolfsburg |
Denis Vavro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 69' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Maximilian Arnold |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Wolfsburg |
Tiago Tomás | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 85' |
Wolfsburg |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Behrens | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 91' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Denis Vavro |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Behrens |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Phillip Tietz FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Fredrik Jensen AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noahkai Banks Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Steve Mounie Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Tomás FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Maximilian Arnold MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Joakim Maehle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mohammed Amoura FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mattias Svanberg MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jonas Wind FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bence Dárdai MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Patrick Wimmer Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Kevin Behrens Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Jakub Kaminski Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |