Augsburg v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+1.25 – -0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
27.3%
Draw
27.2%
Wolfsburg win
45.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWDLDLD last 10
scored 23
from 22.8 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.27–1.30 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 1.75 xGWolfsburg 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Augsburg |
Noahkai Banks | 0.49 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Mert Kömür |
| 9' |
 Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 25' |
Augsburg |
Elias Saad | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Augsburg |
Elias Saad | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 31' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Mohammed Amoura |
| 33' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 34' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinicius Souza |
| 36' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 42' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Chrislain Matsima |
| 52' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Moritz Jenz |
| 56' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 59' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Wolfsburg |
Moritz Jenz | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 62' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fabian Rieder |
| 64' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mohammed Amoura |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Kade |
| 80' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 81' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 89' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 90' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Essende |
| 92' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 94' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joakim Maehle |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mert Kömür FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.49 | 1.01 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Kristijan Jakic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.13 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Elias Saad AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anton Kade Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Cédric Zesiger Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Daghim AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Mohammed Amoura AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.65 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Joakim Maehle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| Mattias Svanberg AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.81 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |