Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.74 – 0.47
Goals − xG
+4.45 – -0.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
83.0%
Draw
11.5%
Wolfsburg win
5.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWDWWDW last 10
scored 35
from 31.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.5 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 3.27–0.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.36–0.89 | 3-0 9% | 80% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 3.55 xGWolfsburg 1.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Wolfsburg |
Kilian Fischer | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 9' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 12' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lovro Majer |
| 16' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 22' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 22' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 29' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 38' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 44' |
Wolfsburg |
Sael Kumbedi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Tah |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Konrad Laimer |
| 52' |
Wolfsburg |
Moritz Jenz | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 59' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.76 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Luis Díaz |
| 65' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.47 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.57 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Harry Kane |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 71' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 75' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 78' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 79' |
Wolfsburg |
Kevin Paredes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jonathan Tah |
| 92' |
Bayern Munich |
Hiroki Ito | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Felipe Chávez |
Players
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.47 | 0.04 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kilian Fischer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mattias Svanberg DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| Yannick Gerhardt Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Paredes Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Denis Vavro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pharell Hensel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.91 | 0.61 | 1.76 |
| Tom Bischof DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.71 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 1.60 |
| Josip Stanisic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.70 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.83 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 86 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.84 | 1.77 | 2.63 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Harry Kane FW | 80 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 1.54 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Lennart Karl AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Raphael Guerreiro Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Wisdom Mike Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Hiroki Ito Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Felipe Chávez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.13 |