Borussia Dortmund v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.88
Goals − xG
-0.25 – -1.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
58.4%
Draw
22.0%
Wolfsburg win
19.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.17–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.46–1.09 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 1.25 xGWolfsburg 1.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 4' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Wolfsburg |
Vinicius Souza | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Moritz Jenz |
| 8' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 9' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 17' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 17' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Julian Ryerson |
| 27' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 33' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 43' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 46' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 57' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.73 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Mohammed Amoura |
| 57' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 86' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 89' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Kamil Grabara | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Ramy Bensebaini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| Karim Adeyemi AMC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Jobe Bellingham Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Salih Özcan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.79 | 0.14 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joakim Maehle DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen AMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jonas Wind Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |