Borussia M.Gladbach v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.62
Goals − xG
+0.38 – +0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
46.8%
Draw
25.4%
Wolfsburg win
27.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.70–1.65 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 0.62 xGWolfsburg 2.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lovro Majer |
| 10' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 15' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 26' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 27' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.54 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 29' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 37' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 42' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 54' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 55' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Mohammed Amoura |
| 70' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Grant-Leon Ranos | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 76' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lukas Ullrich |
| 78' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Grant-Leon Ranos |
| 81' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Grant-Leon Ranos | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 85' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Wael Mohya | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 89' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Philipp Sander |
| 92' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Grant-Leon Ranos | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 93' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Ullrich |
| 94' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.37 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shuto Machino AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Luca Netz DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Giovanni Reyna AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Jens Castrop DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Grant-Leon Ranos Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Wael Mohya Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lukas Ullrich Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.54 | 0.05 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jenson Seelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1.56 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.39 | 0.98 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.46 | 1.66 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 73 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Vavro Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pharell Hensel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vinicius Souza Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |