Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 10
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.18 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.66 – -0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
65.4%
Draw
19.1%
Wolfsburg win
15.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLWDLWL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 21.8 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.38–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.28–1.14 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.66 xGWolfsburg 1.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 6' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Kristensen |
| 11' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mario Götze | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 14' |
 Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 18' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 21' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 31' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 34' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 37' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 41' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.27 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 51' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 58' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 58' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 63' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sael Kumbedi |
| 75' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 77' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mattias Svanberg |
| 78' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 85' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mahmoud Dahoud | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 95' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 97' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michy Batshuayi |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Ritsu Doan AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Farès Chaïbi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ansgar Knauff FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Ellyes Skhiri DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mario Götze AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jean Négoce AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Nnamdi Collins Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jessic Ngankam Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.06 | 0.70 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.70 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jenson Seelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| Yannick Gerhardt DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Mohammed Amoura FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 1.13 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Denis Vavro Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vinicius Souza Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pharell Hensel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |