FC Cologne v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 30 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 14
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.44 – -1.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
39.7%
Draw
28.1%
Wolfsburg win
32.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–1.32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–1.56 | 1-1 9% | 68% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 1.44 xGWolfsburg 1.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 17' |
 FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 19' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yannick Gerhardt |
| 21' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Linton Maina |
| 23' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 25' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Alessio Castro-Montes |
| 26' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
FC Cologne |
Linton Maina | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tom Krauß |
| 32' |
FC Cologne |
Linton Maina | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 36' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 38' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 42' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 52' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 60' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
FC Cologne |
Linton Maina | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 72' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yannick Gerhardt |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 79' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 81' |
Wolfsburg |
Yannick Gerhardt | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 86' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 87' |
Wolfsburg |
Kento Shiogai | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Wolfsburg |
Kento Shiogai | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 95' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yannick Gerhardt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.41 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.52 |
| Christian Eriksen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Daghim Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.60 |
| Kento Shiogai Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.53 |
| Sael Kumbedi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Aaron Zehnter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.61 |
| Eric Martel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.64 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| Linton Maina MR | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| Jakub Kaminski ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Marius Bülter FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.65 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Said El Mala Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jan Thielmann Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rav van den Berg Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssoupha Niang Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |