FC Heidenheim v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 15
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
2 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.95
Goals − xG
+0.22 – +0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
26.8%
Draw
27.8%
Wolfsburg win
45.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.13–1.53 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.52 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 0.78 xGWolfsburg 2.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aaron Zehnter |
| 9' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 14' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 19' |
Wolfsburg |
Andreas Skov Olsen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Patrick Wimmer |
| 21' |
Wolfsburg |
Kilian Fischer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 23' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lovro Majer |
| 24' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Léo Scienza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 28' |
FC Heidenheim |
Léo Scienza | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 29' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
FC Heidenheim |
Tim Siersleben | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Léo Scienza |
| 35' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 37' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 47' |
FC Heidenheim |
Léo Scienza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Niklas Dorsch |
| 48' |
Wolfsburg |
Maximilian Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andreas Skov Olsen |
| 57' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Arnold |
| 63' |
Wolfsburg |
Vinicius Souza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Goal | Maximilian Arnold |
| 82' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 86' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Mattias Svanberg | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Scienza AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Marnon Busch DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.58 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Omar Traoré Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Wimmer AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 1.10 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 1.16 |
| Kilian Fischer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.20 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Lovro Majer AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Václav Cerny Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Gerhardt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |