Freiburg v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.00 – -0.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
55.2%
Draw
22.0%
Wolfsburg win
22.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLWWWWDWL last 10
scored 22
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 14.0 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.94–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.04–1.12 | 2-1 10% | 61% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.00 xGWolfsburg 1.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Adam Daghim |
| 11' |
 Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 20' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 22' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Atubolu |
| 22' |
Wolfsburg |
Patrick Wimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vinicius Souza |
| 25' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 32' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 41' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Koulierakis |
| 42' |
Freiburg |
Christian Günter | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 45' |
Wolfsburg |
Jeanuël Belocian | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 50' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sael Kumbedi |
| 54' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joakim Maehle |
| 54' |
Wolfsburg |
Konstantinos Koulierakis | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 59' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 60' |
Wolfsburg |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 74' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Lienhart | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Johan Manzambi |
| 75' |
Wolfsburg |
Lovro Majer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 85' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Lienhart | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Derry Scherhant |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Christian Günter DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Lucas Höler FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bruno Ogbus DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Lienhart Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Igor Matanovic Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Lukas Kübler Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.09 | 0.78 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.44 |
| Christian Eriksen MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Sael Kumbedi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Joakim Maehle DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Vavro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Adam Daghim FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.35 |
| Patrick Wimmer MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| Vinicius Souza MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Lovro Majer Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moritz Jenz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Gerhardt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |