Genoa v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 13
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 11
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.86 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.34 – -1.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
46.3%
Draw
29.9%
Verona win
23.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–1.02 | 1-1 13% | 37% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.66 xGVerona 2.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovane |
| 10' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
| 12' |
 Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giovane |
| 20' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.73 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 23' |
Genoa |
Morten Thorsby | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 39' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vitinha |
| 40' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morten Thorsby |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Morten Thorsby | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Aarón Martín |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Morten Thorsby | 0.52 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 64' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Genoa |
Morten Thorsby | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 67' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 68' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Frese |
| 70' |
Genoa |
Alessandro Marcandalli | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 73' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 75' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrizio Masini |
| 83' |
Verona |
Al Musrati | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Verona |
Daniel Oyegoke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.91 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Unai Núñez |
| 83' |
Verona |
Roberto Gagliardini | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nicolás Valentini |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Thorsby MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DMR | 87 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 0.18 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Vitinha FW | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Stefano Sabelli Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Carboni Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovane FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafik Belghali DMR | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.64 |
| Daniel Mosquera FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Frese Sub | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Gift Orban Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 1.53 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Al Musrati Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Daniel Oyegoke Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |