Hamburger SV v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 6
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.91 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-2.64 – +0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
28.0%
Draw
28.8%
Wolfsburg win
43.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Wolfsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLLWDDLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.8 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.46 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 2.64 xGWolfsburg 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Wolfsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 14' |
 Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 17' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Vuskovic |
| 17' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 17' |
Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Wolfsburg |
Christian Eriksen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Wind |
| 31' |
Wolfsburg |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.30 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 46' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 47' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Rayan Philippe |
| 47' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
| 48' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Vuskovic |
| 51' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
| 54' |
Wolfsburg |
Aaron Zehnter | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Amoura |
| 57' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 57' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 60' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 62' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 64' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 65' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
| 67' |
Hamburger SV |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Hamburger SV |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 80' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 83' |
Wolfsburg |
Adam Daghim | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bence Dárdai |
| 85' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 86' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 88' |
Hamburger SV |
Immanuel Pherai | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Wolfsburg |
Joakim Maehle | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Kamil Grabara |
Players
Wolfsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Zehnter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Adam Daghim AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jenson Seelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kamil Grabara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Arnold DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sael Kumbedi DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Eriksen AMC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Jonas Wind FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Mohammed Amoura AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Vinicius Souza DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Bence Dárdai Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Patrick Wimmer Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mattias Svanberg Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joakim Maehle Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| Rayan Philippe FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.07 | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Daniel Elfadli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| William Mikelbrencis DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fábio Vieira Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Immanuel Pherai Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Guilherme Ramos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |