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Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 11 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–1
1.18 – 1.49 xG
Shots
15 – 12
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.67
Goals − xG
-1.21 – -0.49
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Mohammed Amoura 28' — goal
Hoffenheim 1.21 xGWolfsburg 1.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Arthur Chaves 8' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Tiago Tomás 21' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gift Orban 24' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Amoura 28' — Goal (0.09 xG, From Corner)Tiago Tomás 28' — Saved Shot (0.33 xG, Set Piece)Adam Hlozek 30' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Arnold 34' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tiago Tomás 38' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Arthur Chaves 46' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Gift Orban 46' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Tom Bischof 46' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Tom Bischof 46' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Denis Vavro 52' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Denis Vavro 52' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Konstantinos Koulierakis 56' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Jonas Wind 58' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Andrej Kramaric 73' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Anton Stach 73' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jonas Wind 75' — Shot On Post (0.30 xG, Open Play)Alexander Prass 78' — Missed Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)Arthur Chaves 78' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Denis Vavro 82' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Adam Hlozek 83' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alexander Prass 85' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Patrick Wimmer 87' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Erencan Yardimci 92' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Valentin Gendrey 95' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Hoffenheim attacking right Wolfsburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' Hoffenheim Arthur Chaves 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Tom Bischof
21' Wolfsburg Tiago Tomás 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joakim Maehle
24' Hoffenheim Gift Orban 0.05 Open Play — Blocked Shot Anton Stach
28' Wolfsburg Mohammed Amoura 0.09 From Corner — Goal Maximilian Arnold
28' Wolfsburg Tiago Tomás 0.33 Set Piece — Saved Shot Maximilian Arnold
30' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pavel Kaderábek
34' Wolfsburg Maximilian Arnold 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
38' Wolfsburg Tiago Tomás 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
46' Hoffenheim Arthur Chaves 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
46' Hoffenheim Gift Orban 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
46' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
46' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
52' Wolfsburg Denis Vavro 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Maximilian Arnold
52' Wolfsburg Denis Vavro 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Konstantinos Koulierakis
56' Wolfsburg Konstantinos Koulierakis 0.02 Set Piece — Missed Shot Maximilian Arnold
58' Wolfsburg Jonas Wind 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mohammed Amoura
73' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
73' Hoffenheim Anton Stach 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
75' Wolfsburg Jonas Wind 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Maximilian Arnold
78' Hoffenheim Alexander Prass 0.63 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
78' Hoffenheim Arthur Chaves 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Andrej Kramaric
82' Wolfsburg Denis Vavro 0.07 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
83' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Max Moerstedt
85' Hoffenheim Alexander Prass 0.01 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
87' Wolfsburg Patrick Wimmer 0.07 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Konstantinos Koulierakis
92' Hoffenheim Erencan Yardimci 0.05 Open Play — Saved Shot Alexander Prass
95' Hoffenheim Valentin Gendrey 0.04 Open Play — Saved Shot Anton Stach

Players

Hoffenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Alexander Prass DL 90 0 0 2 1 0.64 0.05 0.77
Adam Hlozek AMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.20
Arthur Chaves DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.10 0.00 0.22
Anton Stach DMC 90 0 0 1 2 0.01 0.09 0.26
Andrej Kramaric AML 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.05 0.21
Oliver Baumann GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tom Bischof AMR 81 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.05 0.28
Gift Orban FW 62 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.05
Diadie Samassékou DMC 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Stanley N'Soki DC 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Pavel Kaderábek DR 48 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.11
Erencan Yardimci Sub 42 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.09
Valentin Gendrey Sub 42 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.20
Kevin Akpoguma Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Max Moerstedt Sub 28 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Dennis Geiger Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06

Wolfsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jonas Wind FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.35 0.00 0.35
Denis Vavro DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.15 0.00 0.06
Maximilian Arnold MC 90 0 1 1 5 0.04 0.81 0.40
Konstantinos Koulierakis DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.09 0.06
Kilian Fischer DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Kamil Grabara GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Joakim Maehle DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Yannick Gerhardt MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Tiago Tomás FWR 81 0 0 3 0 0.77 0.00 0.43
Bence Dárdai MC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Mohammed Amoura FWL 65 1 0 1 1 0.09 0.05 0.09
Patrick Wimmer Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Mattias Svanberg Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jakub Kaminski Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sebastiaan Bornauw Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aster Vranckx Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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