Internazionale v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 15
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.62 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-1.95 – +0.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
79.0%
Draw
13.2%
Verona win
7.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.63–0.69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.34–0.64 | 2-0 14% | 57% | 42% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 2.95 xGVerona 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
| 2' |
 Internazionale |
Andy Diouf | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Francesco Acerbi |
| 21' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolás Valentini |
| 21' |
Verona |
Sandi Lovric | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 23' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 36' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tomás Suslov |
| 37' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 41' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 46' |
Verona |
Andrias Edmundsson | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefan de Vrij |
| 51' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 53' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Verona |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 68' |
Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrias Edmundsson |
| 79' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 82' |
Internazionale |
Mattia Mosconi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 84' |
Verona |
Ioan Vermesan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 85' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Verona |
Victor Nelsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 87' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 88' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 90' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Verona |
Ioan Vermesan | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.01 | 0.25 | 1.33 |
| Carlos Augusto DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.59 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Matteo Darmian DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Andy Diouf MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Dimarco Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Mattia Mosconi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Raffaele Di Gennaro Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.66 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandi Lovric MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| Martin Frese DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Rafik Belghali DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tomás Suslov FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Abdou Harroui Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ioan Vermesan Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Domagoj Bradaric Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.39 |