Juventus v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 3 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
27 – 5
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
18 – 3
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.63 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.01 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
69.1%
Draw
20.4%
Verona win
10.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.38–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 1.99 xGVerona 0.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 6' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dailon Livramento |
| 11' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 16' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 19' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 21' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 23' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 39' |
Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 39' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 40' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 49' |
Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 52' |
Juventus |
Timothy Weah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 54' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 55' |
Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 57' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 58' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 61' |
Juventus |
Alberto Costa | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 69' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 71' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 71' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 75' |
Verona |
Jackson Tchatchoua | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 82' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 82' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 89' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Samuel Mbangula |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Tchatchoua DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Ondrej Duda MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Valentini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Tomás Suslov MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Dailon Livramento FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Pawel Dawidowicz DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marco Faraoni DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Oyegoke Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Bernede Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Lambourde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 0.66 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kephren Thuram DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.35 |
| Nicolás González AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.64 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| Federico Gatti DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Weston McKennie AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| Timothy Weah DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Alberto Costa Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Dusan Vlahovic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |