Juventus v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
29 – 7
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
17 – 2
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.56 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-1.69 – +0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Juventus win
73.1%
Draw
16.7%
Verona win
10.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWDDWLDWW last 10
scored 12
from 19.4 xG
conceded 5
from 7.7 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.20–0.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–0.63 | 1-0 15% | 48% | 40% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Juventus 2.69 xGVerona 0.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Juventus attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 12' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 15' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
 Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 20' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 21' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 23' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 25' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 26' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 33' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 35' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 37' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 50' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 55' |
Verona |
Rafik Belghali | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 65' |
Verona |
Tomás Suslov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Bernede |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 67' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 69' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 77' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 80' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 84' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rafik Belghali |
| 85' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 92' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 93' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rafik Belghali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Frese DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Tomás Suslov FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DL | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Sandi Lovric Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tobias Slotsager Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdou Harroui Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.80 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1.17 |
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.48 | 1.48 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1.03 | 0.29 | 1.66 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.04 | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Dusan Vlahovic Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |