Leyton Orient v Plymouth Argyle — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 October 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627
ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.7%
- 0-1 9.0%
- 1-2 8.9%
- 1-0 7.8%
- 2-1 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | Under 2.5 | 46.2% |
| BTTS yes | 57.1% | BTTS no | 42.9% |
| Leyton Orient 1+ | 73.2% | Leyton Orient 2+ | 37.8% |
| Plymouth Argyle 1+ | 78.1% | Plymouth Argyle 2+ | 44.8% |
Expected goals 1.32 – 1.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Leyton Orient have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Plymouth Argyle have an estimated 42.1% win probability, against 33.0% for Leyton Orient and 24.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.31 for Leyton Orient and 1.52 for Plymouth Argyle.
Why Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient carry the stronger rating, 1500 Elo against 1440. At home Leyton Orient average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.31 to 1.52.
Why Plymouth Argyle can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Leyton Orient, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Plymouth Argyle, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Leyton Orient: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Plymouth Argyle: 0% possession, 0.0 shots a match, 4.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Plymouth Argyle are the model's most likely outcome at 42.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.32–1.52 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.36–1.44 | 1-1 14% | 53% | 59% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.